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Nov 9 • 3 tweets • 1 min read
I really hate to do this, but I am retracting my call for Dems in #CO03. I have been made aware of phantom ballots that have yet to be counted, which were not known of this morning, this opens a few more paths for Boebert.

Just for the record, I would *still* rather be Frisch.
The call this morning was made with the knowledge that there were only 14,000 ballots left. There could be as many as 23,000, with some coming from heavily Republican areas. We will monitor the situation.

Again, apologies.
Please rt this and spread the word. I am deleting my old call - because I do not want to spread misinformation.

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More from @Thorongil16

Thorongil Profile picture
Nov 10
If the non-in person number is that high - Frisch is absolutely still in this.

It depends on whether the mail is earlier (more D) or later (swing/narrow R).

Either way, buckle up because this seat is likely to be the 218th for either person.
Otero also has some votes up for grabs left - those will break R. But we don't really know how much.

Just want to commend Anna here for her amazing job - this ain't easy!
Either way, this is like covering a football game with how crazy and chaotic this is.

Honestly my duel voting proposal wouldn't be out of place here.
Read 4 tweets
Thorongil Profile picture
Nov 10
Currently, Frisch up by 64 votes.

I pulled the current numbers in each county of CO-03 and calculated the undervote. Using this we projected the *upper bound* of how many remaining cong. votes there are.

If they break at the current margin, Frisch gains a *max* of 393 votes. Image
Assuming some attrition in Mesa/Pueblo (the two main sources), you get the second case. As an absolute upper bound (Frisch probably will not hit this), he gains 88.

I think there's a solid case that Frisch's net gain conf. interval will keep this in a double-digit vote margin.
In other words - too early to call. Way too early to call. This is not going to be called now.
Read 5 tweets
Thorongil Profile picture
Nov 8
Election day votes are happening but Rs already have a decent turnout advantage in Lake County EV for #IN01.

Hammond is an ouch, particularly because that is where Mrvan is from. Dems will need big turnout Gary/EC/these other bases today to win.
That said, the EV data in LaPorte and Porter actually looks ok - Dem turnout advantages in Valparaiso (Center twp, Porter), Michigan City (LaPorte) mean that Mrvan is still very much in this.
For those of you who are interested - full ballot return stats for the 3 counties in #IN01. A bunch of these townships in LaPorte are in the 2nd CD just as a forewarning.
Read 4 tweets
Thorongil Profile picture
Nov 8
#CO03 has been pointed out as a sleeper based on early vote data from @GalenMetzger1 (CO data hype man).

Looking at the reg data, do I agree?

Definitely maybe. Thread below
Boebert is a shit candidate. The fact that this seat is competitive is 100% due to her being a shit candidate - Rs in a red year in the 3rd usually win by double digits, nearing 20 points. See: Tipton, Scott and McInnis, Scott
Looking at returned ballots, and using a 15% split in Eagle County (the portion of the county in CD3), there's a roughly 13k firewall for registered Rs - in 2020 this number was 32k and it was roughly similar in 2018.
Read 10 tweets
Thorongil Profile picture
Nov 7
Plugging our final predictions from the @SplitTicket_ crew:

@lxeagle17 @HWLavelleMaps myself

We'll end up seeing who's right only tomorrow, but we've put together some very solid educated guesses on what could happen - so read the articles linked below!
⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️
House: 234-201 R from @HWLavelleMaps
split-ticket.org/2022/11/06/our…
Senate: 50-49 R with Georgia runoff deciding control of the Senate, from @lxeagle17
split-ticket.org/2022/11/07/our…
Read 4 tweets

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