Thread by @RECNeil

Today, we publish our October @RECmembers data in the #ReportOnJobs, produced by @RECPress in partnership with @kpmguk and @SPGlobalPMI. Tl:dr, clear slowing of the market, but likely to be cooling of post-pandemic fizz, rather than a serious retrenchment at this stage. (1/)

Permanent placements declined (45) for the first time in 21 months (Feb 2021), though the London market in the south (48.9) was appreciably stronger than other parts of the country. Worth remembering that this market has grown for two years - this is a drop from a high base. (2/)

Temporary placements were basically flat (tiny growth at 50.1). Again. the south (57) was stronger than other regions. This offset drops in other markets. Again, activity is at a very high starting point - this market has grown since the bounce from the 1st lockdown in 2020. (3/)

Reflecting these high levels of activity, pay and vacancies continue to rise (although at a lower rate) and candidate shortages continue to rise, again at a lower rate. On vacancies this remains the case in every sector. (4/)

So what are we seeing here? A clear change of phase, to a flatter, slower market - but activity levels remain high. It would be a mistake to see this as an obvious big downturn, at least at the moment. Instead, it points to increased caution, from both firms and workers. (5/)

...hence the picture on vacancies & candidate availability. Businesses are under pressure, but still need to hire. They're making more deliberate decisions about staffing need, advised by #recruiters. (6/)

Employees to are considering options. They would like to move (esp for pay) but are cautious about the risks they take in the face of economic uncertainty. This means #recruitment is still challenging, especially in the permanent market. (7/)

In sum, shortages are still a vital brake on growth and we still need to do something about them. Activity is at a high level, and today's data is a reflection of the market reacting to uncertainty. Read more at rec.uk.com (8/8)

Sorry about the late final tweet... we built a £30bn railway without wifi or 4G in the tunnels. sigh.