Thread by @Dreamweasel

Fine. For the record, I believed that the conventional wisdom of a Republican sweep was more or less inevitable until the SCOTUS overplayed their hand & pissed off 80% of the women in America. At which point, Biden started getting shit done & the future became far more ambiguous.

https://twitter.com/owillis/status/1590658166945386496

I remain skeptical that Tuesday’s results have changed much about the Trump-DeSantis contest, although there are pundits who appear to disagree. I’ll believe it when elected Republicans go on record supporting DeSantis against Trump without insisting on remaning anonymous.

One could indeed build a case for #ETTD based on midterm results. But these are general-election races. Among the GOP base, you’re either pro-Trump or a RINO. And virtually all RDS supporters voted for Trump, twice. He’ll get the Liz Cheney treatment if Trump brands him an enemy.

I have no fucking idea who will win the 2024 general election. If Trump’s the Republican nominee, he’ll declare victory in July and insist the media is in cahoots with the Democrats to rig the election against him. And many, many Republicans in power will back him up.

That’s another thing: can you imagine Trump even conceding the PRIMARIES to Ron DeSantis? How’s that circus gonna play out over the spring of 2024? Is there even a 0.1% chance of a DeSantis coronation at the Republican National Convention without a massive uproar from Team MAGA?

It’s also worth considering exactly how Ron DeSantis would go on the attack against Trump when his target audience has based their entire political identity on defending him from the likes of us

To summarize:

1. MAGA voters aren’t going away
2. DeSantis can only win the GOP nomination if MAGA voters are on his side
3. If DeSantis challenges Trump, there is no question which way the MAGA voters will go
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8. weasels weasels weasels