IRGC-ASF Commander BG Hajizadeh has told press that Iran has developed a hypersonic missile that can manoeuvre at extremely high speed both inside and outside the atmosphere. He said among its capabilities will be to not just bypass, but target missile defence systems. #hyperhype
He emphasised that the missile will be able to evade both endoatmospheric and exoatmospheric ABM systems, and that it will be able to destroy any target, *especially* ABM systems. He described this as a generational leap that won't be countered for decades.
This is interesting because Iran has described what we think is a missile with a HGV before. That was Kheybar-Shekan, and it had a MaRV-type triconic HGV.
However, Kheybar-Shekan (pictured) only has fins for controlling its flight and hence its manoeuvring capability is mostly within the atmosphere. Hajizadeh saying the new hypersonic weapon will be able to manoeuvre outside the atmosphere implies the use of gas steering, or...
...it could be of the type with an arrowhead shape, designed for more lift and manoeuvring capability in the upper atmosphere. Or maybe a combination of the two.
What's for certain is that like Kheybar-Shekan, this missile will likely be a MRBM to have sufficient energy to make the necessary manoeuvres, and to get to the altitudes that Hajizadeh is talking about.
It's also encouraging to see Hajizadeh talking about targeting ABM systems specifically, considering their proliferation in the region.
Ah I see the rednecks have found this thread. Here's something about Iran's missile tech for you guys, enjoy ☺️
Anyway, there's a reason for Iran's focus on defeating ABM systems. Since 2011 Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar have agreed deals totalling over $25 billion for THAAD ABM systems, which have exo-atmospheric capability. This new missile would add to Iran's arsenal targeting THAAD.
There's also Israel's Arrow-2 which is comparable to THAAD. But above those are SM-3 (shipborne, protecting US carriers), and Arrow-3 which are truly exoatmospheric interceptors of the highest calibre. Iran's hypersonic missile will have these systems in its sights.
Iran still has large stocks of older Qiam and Ghadr missiles (improved versions of Scud and Shahab-3 respectively) in inventory, so an ABM-killer to clear the way for these missiles would be a force multiplier.
Aside from the missile's reentry vehicle itself, it will be interesting to see what missile will launch it. It will boost likely be a boost-glide vehicle, which means a ballistic missile.
My money is on the Raafe rocket motor which was used in the recent Qaem-100 SLV test. It's powerful, light, and compact. It's the bleeding edge of Iran's (unclassified) booster tech, and would make a suitable first/single-stage booster.
It could be the booster section of a Blue Sparrow target ALBM which has a separable payload section. However there is no reported sighting or hearing of impact anywhere in Iraq or Iran of the payload section.
This would make sense as from what we know Blue Sparrow isn't a weapons system and it wouldn't really be able to hit anything. Could just be a very minor demonstration of "we did something"
I don't usually praise Iran's public messaging but everything since Op. True Promise has been spot on. In all levels of govt, military, and foreign ministry.
Crucially for deterrence purposes, Iran has repeatedly promised that Israeli attack in response would not be acceptable.
This is important because it aligns with the int'l consensus that the conflict shouldn't be escalated. So Iran's own deterrence goals are backed by int'l pressure on Israel not to escalate further.
There are numerous examples of the above but other aspects have been positive too
Intentions of strike made clear, will to de-escalate emphasised. This kind of message has been repeated multiple times over the past days to make clear that Iran is not interested in escalation, laying the blame for any future conflict on Israel.
The US is telling Israel to "take the win". Iran is claiming 'Operation True Promise' was a success.
In reality, both sides can claim victory in their own ways.
A thread 🧵
Israel's "win" was military-technical in nature. It claims to have destroyed all drones and cruise missiles, while intercepting most - but not all - ballistic missiles.
Israel has one of if not the densest and most advanced anti-ballistic missile coverage in the world.
It's also known that the US Navy helped Israel intercept some ballistic missiles, and aircraft from the US, Israel, Jordan, and France participated in intercepting drones and cruise missiles over Iraq and Jordan.
The difference between a rocket-powered Hypersonic MaRV and an unpowered MaRV after making heavy manoeuvres.
Same booster, same range, vastly different endgame energy.
The tweet above is obviously referring to the visible heating on the MaRV, screenshot taken from the below launch and impact video. The MaRV is only really visible for a couple of frames.
These are the most significant heating effects we've seen on an Iranian MaRV. Basically the whole MaRV is close to melting and highlights the extended time it spends manoeuvring at hypersonic speeds within the atmosphere.
The Shahed-123 has traditionally been viewed as a puzzling ugly-duckling little brother of the Shahed-129.
But the Parchamdar documentary has revealed a very different story. It in fact holds and important place in Iran's UAV development history.
A thread 🧵
The Parchamdar ("flag-bearer") documentary mainly focuses on Shahed aviation industries, which had been handed over a part of Iran's drone activities after development stalled due to a series of crashes and disappointments in the mid-late 90s.
Shahed, a helicopter company, wasn't too keen on drone work which back then was seen as amateurish. But this changed in ~2001, when an intruding Israeli Hermes-200 suffered engine trouble and crashed in Marivan, in Iran's Kurdistan province.