SUPER TIGHT result. Was supposed to be a blow-out. The PATTERN for first midterms after party takes White House is from 40 to 60 bloodbath in Congress. That is the pattern we should have seen. But there was NO RED WAVE
It is razor-thin, can go either
In Senate the Georgia race goes into a run-off. Senator Warnock won his first runoff. He got more votes against the Fake Cop Herschel Walker. This is FAVORED to go our way. We won't know until Dec, but if we hold Georgia, we hold Senate. So Trump wiped Mitch McConnell out - again
The Nevada vote count is not finished and we have a good shot at Senator Catherine Cortez Masto still winning re-election in the Nevada race. In that case Georgia runoff will not even matter
We cannot call the Senate yet. But we have significantly better chance of holding it
In the House it SHOULD have been a blow-out. 30 seat gain AT LEAST, and could have been 40-50 seats. GOP was running against an 'unpopular' sitting President, and the newsmedia was hyping 'inflation' as the boogie man. Yet Congress may be gain of 3-9 seats to GOP. AND..
AND it is still very plausible we hold the House. The final math favors the GOP but only barely. And these last counts could well go our way. We are IN IT to KEEP the House. The only reason for this catastrophic election day failure by GOP is... Trump
Can you imagine how stupid it would have been, after Nixon resigned, for the Republican Party to have let Nixon be their public face going into the NEXT elections? That would have been catastrophic
But that is what GOP is doing now with Trump. They are stuck with their monster
You will see a lot of pundits, and some Republicans try to proclaim the party has to move past Trump
They CANNOT. Trump OWNS the BASE of GOP
The Maganutters will obey Trump, destroy anyone on GOP side that Trump hates (see Liz Cheney). Trump cannot harm us. He will damage GOP
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This is a massive win for Democrats. We kept the Senate, in the first midterms after one party took the White House. This cycle should have been devastating against us
Two big keys: Trump got involved, & reaction to Roe vs Wade. But also great politics by DEM
I will do a Thread
So understand. We were SUPPOSED TO LOSE
In nearly every cycle in as far as anyone can remember, the party who took the White House, loses in the next midterms (exception was 2002 because of Osama Bin Laden terrorist attack on Sept 11 & wave of patriotism cancelled this pattern)
If we had lost the Senate, not only would Joe Biden's agenda be dead for the next 2 years, GOP would have run all sorts of nastiness, forcing Biden to veto nearly everything - weakening Biden for 2024
And worse: the Teenage Mutant Mitch McTurtle would have controlled judges
Why is failed Bond Villain wannabe, the Chrischristie in the news? Or Cancun Cruz, America's most hated man talking about personality? Or Never Trumper John Kasich demanding move beyond Trump? Because the race for 2024 has started on GOP side. Even Lord of Flies thinks has chance
Trump said he will announce on Tuesday. Now everybody who thinks they have a chance, have to stake their ground
And the newsmedia - driven by right wing media owners - is pushing Death Santis as their new Trump. DeSantis is too smart to run against Trump. He's playing Trump
Ted Cruz is the front-runner AFTER Trump is no longer viable. Cancun Cruz is only playing the game of never angering Trump but preparing his day, for when Trump is in prison. He will then promise to pardon Trump too. Cruz is playing long game. But he won't go against Trump
My quick & easy three day war into Ukraine has now run into its 9th month. We lost the battle of Kyiv, their capital & largest city. As you can see, my war started out tremendously well.. for the Ukrainians
After we lost the battle of Kyiv, we proceeded to lose the battle of Kharkiv too. Kharkiv is their second largest city. After a prolonged battle we lost at Snake Island. Then we lost the battle for Izyum, a town we had seized. As you can tell, this war was going remarkably well
We have been eagerly retreating so much since March, that half of the terrain we once held in Ukraine has already been handed back to the Ukrainians. In the words of my pet & sex toy, Donald Trump, I call this unconventional type of military maneouvering: 'winning'
How's your war going in Ukraine? Why are you retreating out of Kherson? Only losers retreat. You should have built a wall
I'm miserable. The election has been a disaster. These Republicans are all morons
I miss hearing your voice. Couldn't you just call me
My Sweetest Trumpy-Pumpkin
Daddy's a bit busy with this war in Ukraine. My incompetent army is just fucking losing & goddamned retreating. That incompetent General Shoigu just ordered a total retreat from Kherson!
He's gonna be taking a look at the view from an open window soon
Dearest Chairman Kim Jong-Un
I noticed you fired up some rockets again. Were you selling some missiles to Russia? Did you talk to Vladimir Putin? Did he say anything about me? He isn't returning my calls
How I miss the gentle touch of your hand in mine when we had our walks
This SHOULD have been a blow-out to that party which just took the White House 2 years prior. Usually this cycle, either for Dems or for GOP is blowout. From 30 seats to 60 seats pick-up
Thanks to Trump, and Roe vs Wade - it was not a red wave
They are still counting and we have 4 Senate races not called. The MOST likely outcome is net zero gain and 50/50 Senate split remains. NEXT most likely outcome is 51/49 for DEMs, a net gain of one
This is OPPOSITE of a red wave. This almost NEVER happens in first midterms..
In the House we currently have 9 pickups for GOP and 3 pickups for DEMs, with several dozen close races not yet called. It means net gain of 6, where 5 is what switches control from DEM to GOP. And the last House seats to be called can very well go back to DEMs keeping the House.
Tidbit from exit poll: Abortion. 11% of Republican voters listed abortion as their reason to vote. Because of Roe vs Wade overturned by SCOTUS, it would seem most GOP who rate abortion as important matter, would be voting on this now. My guess most of that is votes AGAINST SCOTUS
so if most of this 11% of GOP vote where top issue was abortion was AGAINST the Roe decision - these angry voters have almost certainly voted against GOP, against men, against their sitting members of Congress who now are anti abortion. Could be a hidden protest vote inside GOP
So where turnout numbers reveal by party split (also a) strong GOP turnout - those could be mostly women voters inside GOP now turning out on abortion to vote against GOP. If say 9 out of 10 such voters (ie out of that 11%) vote blue, we could gain 3% nationally out of this BUT