It seems like the Russians really have ballsed up their withdrawal
They had to announce it because they were pulling out of territory that they’d previously annexed (and were claiming as Russian territory)
But it seems like they hadn’t actually told all their troops
And, as we know, retreating is the hardest military manoeuvre to carry out.
Much harder if you announce it before hand.
So now we have the situation where Russian troops are jamming the crossing by points and getting shelled by the Ukrainians.
They can’t get out fast enough.
Ukraine has taken back tens of villages.
And is supposedly on the outskirts of the city of Kherson itself (with special forces already inside).
This looks like it a turning into a rout.
I’ll update this as we go forward. Things are moving very fast.
It feels weird tweeting this. I’ve been tweeting about Ukrainians designs on Kherson since May or June and here we are.
Good for them.
OMG.
Dig a little deeper and some of the *Russian* sources are saying that there at c.20k Russians stuck on the wrong side of the river.
Wow.
Reports of panic spreading
The Russian pocket on the West Bank is collapsing super fast.
Ukrainians are advancing on three sides
Today is gonna be ABSOLUTELY WILD
More reports of Ukrainians shelling the crossing points. Russians trying to get across on boats etc
Here are some basic geographical facts. The black line is where the front line will shortly be running along the river Dnipro. Obviously attacking across that will be a mission for the Ukr. But look: The Ukr are already over the river further to the E enabling them to hook round
Antonovsky bridge dropped.
Ukr flag raised in centre of Kherson by civilians
Like that Ukr units are already in Kherson
Ukrainian troops in the centre of Kherson.
Ukrainian infantry being hugged and kissed by civilians in Kherson’s main square
Now the mop up of Russian soldiers who didn’t manage to get out
And once that is done, it will free up a lot of Ukrainian combat power - I wonder where that will be going?
Here is where it is going
The Kimburn peninsula. Ukr just launched an amphibious assault. If they can hold this bridgehead then they can flank the Russian defensive lines.
Boom. The next move.
I thought it would be left flanking. But it was right flanking.
Smart.
More I think about this though … this is the diversion. Main thrust still by Zaporizhizhia. Like this.
Ok. I’ll do another thread later today. Some big moves coming up.
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This is the first of several 🧵 on the strategic challenges facing the world ….
First up … the Middle East.
The most acute challenge is obviously Gaza-Palestine.
Following the appalling attacks of Oct 7th, Israel has completely mismanaged its response, squandering the immense sympathy, goodwill and support that it had.
There’s been a fair bit of movement in Ukraine - here is a round up and summary of what it means for the strategic environment.
🖍️
In the last few week days, we have had three big reports:
- A Ukr breakthrough in the South by Verbove
- Further progress around Bahkmut in the East
- A large number of Ukr strikes in Crimea.
These add up to a sum that is more than the parts.
First in the South by Verbove (where the red arrow is).
This is the second of three Russian defensive lines in the South, and the aim is to isolate Tokmak (black circle), and get about 30km south so that the other logistics route in the south (a highway just south of the drawing) is under Ukr artillery fire.