Thread by @RalstonReports

Good morning from The #WeMatter State, and Happy Veterans Day, especially to those who served.

Here's where we are:

Laxalt leads by 9K statewide over CCM.

The news of this early AM is below, and let me tell you what it means.

1/

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1591051355354845185

This is part of the 57K mail ballots (there are actually more but wait) to be counted in Clark.

Those first 35K will put a huge dent in Laxalt's lead, and CCM, if indies are breaking to Ds as they have been, will pick up more than 6K.

2/

If CCM continues pace of getting 60 percent and Laxalt gets 35 percent, she will pick up 9K in this batch alone.

If it's 55-40, she will add more than 5K.

The margin could be greater (65-30?).

3/

Bottom line: Unless trend suddenly shifts, this batch will help her a lot.

3/

So what else is left?

Laxalt is still going to gain 2-4K in rurals -- super-red Douglas should post a few thousand ballots today.

There are still 20K or so to count in Clark and 20K in Washoe -- minus whatever ballots need to be cured -- and that 40K batch should help her.

4/

The ballots needing to be cured -- mail that has signature problems, for example -- also favor Dems. Culinary, others running intense campaigns to get those voters to fix their ballots so they can be counted.

Via @JohnRSamuelsen:

There are also 5.5K provisional ballots, many of them from first-time voters, young folks. Those are thought to favor the Dems, too.

Laxalt's best chance to hang on in the face of this blizzard of mail votes is for the margins to go down and rural margins/volume to be huge.

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Bottom line: This first batch of 35K mail ballots shows a partisan breakdown that strongly favors CCM, and if the trend continues, she is going to win.

But miles to go before I can finally sleep, and we will know a LOT when Clark/Washoe post tonight.

Good morning!

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