It definitely is a leadership fail. But Rs underperformance is not explained only by MSG failures.

D vote was much more efficient, a reversal of history. They have a big tech cabal micro-targeting, MSGing, and a multi-union VBM machine.

Rs lost a game they didn't know existed.
Everything I packed in there doesn’t even begin to scratch the surface of the leadership fail.

That all being said, there really was true sabotage by an overconfident leadership trying to minimize MAGA in their conferences, and it cost them.

Here’s one must-read example.
I suspected there would be a deluge of them speaking out now that they really have nothing left to lose.

Here’s another.

The cold hard truth is that @GOPLeader McCarthy and @LeaderMcConnell thought they had seats to spare.

Arrogance and overconfidence.
thenationalpulse.com/2022/11/11/maj…
To add to that example: if Duarte loses #CA13, which is very likely now, it'll be B/C he underperformed in the GOP's base county, Madera, where @DavidGiglioCA is from, and 2) B/C he's losing David's Hispanic precincts in Merced. All rightfully pissed Kevin & Co. railroaded them.

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More from @Peoples_Pundit

Nov 12
Team McCarthy took weeks to call back @votejohngibbs and only did so when he got pressure from Team Trump.

He recruited and funded candidates to defeat GR MAGA. His leadership fund sent mailers depicting @joekent16jan19 next to Adolf Hitler during the primary.

He embraced MAGA?
I would’ve listed a lot more examples in the prior tweet if not for Twitter character restrictions for each post.

But anyone who claims Kevin McCarthy “embraced” grassroots MAGA is either uninformed or lying to your face.

“False” isn’t a strong enough word for how untrue it is.
Shall I continue?

How much would the money Kevin McCarthy spent destroying @VoteCassidy in the runoff have meant at this point to Kent, Gibbs, Boebert, Flores, Cruz, Poliquin, Vega etc?

Look up how much he wasted in that blood red district to ensure his anti-MAGA incumbent won.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 10
The Mr. Rogers apologists really need to stop pretending as if there’s nothing wrong with this.

There absolutely is and it’s very easy to fix and address.

People aren’t stupid. Simple changes to procedure and law would fix this issue and votes would be known on Election Night.
In Arizona, the issue is not even that they allow absentee ballots to arrive after ED if they are postmarked by ED.

The issue is in how and when they handle, verify and process vote by mail.

Processing those ED drops are super easy. They could be verified on site like Florida.
VBM that arrived on Saturday and Monday could easily have been counted along with the initial drop, as in FLORIDA, if they handled, verified and processed ballots ahead of Election with both parities present, like Florida.

And your less liberal friend is not exactly bipartisan.
Read 7 tweets
Nov 8
This started with a single location. Then a few. Now, it's sounding as if this is widespread and very serious.
Turnout is very heavy, very early in Maricopa. This is a real serious problem. No voter should ever have to leave their ballot in a box in the corner of the room and expect it to be handled properly at some point later.

It's a chain of custody nightmare and easily exploitable.
And please, I don't need the usual Mr. Rogers-like suspects to pretend this is not a big deal.

It is, and nobody is this naive, so drop the pretentious BS.

Maricopa was told along with other counties that turnout would be very heavy on #ElectionDay .

It needs to be fixed.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 6
VBMs in Clark County aside, what really matters will be the REP margin among INDs.

Dean Heller, the last non-Sandoval REP to carry the state (+1.2%), won INDs by 20pts in 2012, 53/33, lost Clark by 9pts.

Romney (-6.6%) only won INDs by 11pts, lost by Clark by 15pts.

In 2018...
In 2018, both Heller and Laxalt lost INDs by roughly 20pts.

In 2016, Trump won them by them 13pts, more than Romney and Clark was tighter (Clinton +10), but he still came up just shy.

The difference between that 13-15 to 20pt range for the IND margin really means everything.
Reason I said non-Sandoval REP is because the guy was an electoral phenom and not remotely normal to compare. He beat Bob Goodman (D) like a drum, won every county, with over 70% of the vote.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 6
I’ll tell everyone what it was right now, though it’s not the smartest fight for REPs to have before a midterm.

When Ron DeSantis is chatting with @kevinomccarthy and Team Paul Ryan behind the back of the man who made him the governor of Florida, it was bound to happen.

It’s called a shot across the bow and it’s in response to what Trump has been hearing is going on behind his back, which more than a half of dozen donors and scores of sitting congressman have told me is true.
They’ve targeted Ron DeSantis as the stool they believe is their best chance to foil another Trump Presidency and after enough hammering away at him and blowing up his head, there are indications that it is working.

But make no mistake, it is a DC establishment plan and is true.
Read 11 tweets
Nov 5
For @OnLocals: Using the Buckeye State Battleground Poll Test to Scrutinize Two Theories Ahead of Tuesday

We spoke with 731 Likely Voters and modeled two electorates. The results in the state of Ohio are fairly conclusive unless past is NOT prologue.
peoplespundit.locals.com/post/3005801/t…
FYI, the first electorate is weighted to be more favorable to Tim Ryan than 1) the likely voter model supports and 2) the electorate in 2018.

This race is NOT 2018. Tim Ryan is NOT Sherrod Brown (incumbent) and J.D. Vance is a far stronger candidate than Jim Renacci.

...
Even in the first scenario labeled "Ryan Favorable" that is more DEM favorable than the electorate in 2018, Vance still leads by a fairly solid margin.

In the normally modeled LV electorate, Vance's lead expands to 7 points, above 50% support, yet still has room to grow to 8-10.
Read 5 tweets

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