SeanNyberg Profile picture
Nov 11 4 tweets 2 min read
(1/4) Huge $28 million haul for Disney’s $DIS #WakandaForever Thursday previews. Surpassing the original Black Panther’s $25 million.
This is the third biggest preview of 2022, behind two other @Marvel films:
Doctor Strange 2 and Thor Love and Thunder.
(2/4) Like the original “Black Panther,” Wakanda Forever won’t be as front loaded as both Doc Strange MOM and Thor 4.
Thursday previews are typically for hardcore fans, which is why both Thor4 and DocStrange2 were heavily front loaded for their opening weekend.
(3/4) “Wakanda Forever” will draw Marvel super fans, but it will also draw a more diverse audience who is only interested in the Black Panther films, not the entire MCU.
This means the film will have more “legs” at the box office and not be so heavily front loaded.
(4/4) This is how the first Black Panther went from a decent preview ($25 million) to the highest grossing Domestic film of all time.
It was carried through the entire first weekend and the following weeks by average movie goers who don’t rush to opening night previews.

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More from @SeanNyberg

Nov 12
Bob Iger really left a mess. $24 billion in theme park expansions, $71 billion for Fox, a massive new theme park co-owned w/ China, a five year multi-billion $ commitment to buy Hulu, and launching a streamer at an unsustainably low price. Then bouncing the minute COVID hit. $DIS
Bob Iger is like the divorced parent who gets the kid hopped up on sugar, keeps them up all night, and promises them trips and toys.
And Disney CEO Bob Chapek is the parent who gets them Sunday night and has to put them to bed, feed them vegetables, and take them to school.
I’m not saying that anyone should feel bad for Bob Chapek, he has one of the most sought after position in all of entertainment.
Nor am I saying that Bob Iger was a bad CEO, he transformed and grew Disney in ways no one could’ve imagined.
Read 16 tweets
Nov 11
🧵Disney $DIS CEO details cost cutting measures in memo to management, including: a hiring freeze, limiting non-essential business travel, and an ongoing operations review that will likely include layoffs.
Disney's stock jumped on the news in after-hours trading.
(1/9)
Investors are putting pressure on Disney $DIS to cut costs to fast track profitability of its streaming division (DTC).
Disney's CEO Bob Chapek and CFO Christine McCarthy have spent the last two years guiding for a DTC profitability by fiscal year 2024.
(2/9)
While $DIS Disney's '24 profitability guidance has not changed, investors suddenly (and confusingly) seem unhappy with that timeline.
Disney's stock dropped 14% after Tuesday's Q4 earnings, but has regained 2/3rds of that in the last two days.
(3/9)
Read 9 tweets
Nov 11
A better than expected, but still NOT great, inflationary report sent the stock market soaring today.

In one day Disney $DIS quickly returned 1/3rd of yesterday’s losses.
The Fed will continue to raise rates but it appears we are getting close to an important inflection point.

Many analysts expect the bottom to hit early next year and I expect the market to come back quickly.
Since investors look forward, the market often rebounds before the day to day economic picture improves.

Many still expect a recession in 2023c but if inflation continues to show signs of improving, the fed will slow cuts and hopefully the recession is quick.
Read 17 tweets
Nov 9
🧵Streamers w/ substantial alt rev streams (non-media) to cover costs of growing and maintaining service:
$DIS Disney (D+, Hulu, ESPN+)
- Parks, Cruises, Merch, Licensing
$AMZN Amazon (Prime)
- Retail, AWS
$AAPL Apple
- Tech, Retail
$CMCSA Comcast (Peacock)
- Broadband, Parks
1/8
Streamers w/out any substantial alt rev streams (non-media) to cover costs of growing and maintaining service:
$NFLX Netflix
$WBD Warner Bros Discover (HBOMax, Discovery+)
$PARA Paramount Global (Paramount+)
2/8
Many streamers have linear networks (broadcast & cable) that bring in huge revenue right now:
Disney $DIS: ABC, FX, ESPN, Disney Channel
Comcast $CMCSA: NBC, MSNBC, Bravo
Warner Bros Disc $WBD: HBO, CNN, Discovery
Paramount $PARA: CBS, MTV, Nickelodeon
3/8
Read 8 tweets
Nov 9
I keep politics to my FB, but I keep seeing folks who clearly do NOT follow politics frustrated w/ Dems tonight
Are you kidding? They are WAY over performing, this should be a massive Republican blow out and it's barely a blip.
This might be an historically strong night for Dems.
Let me explain, the 'out party' always wins BIG in the first midterms, with 3 modern day exceptions.
Biden, House and Senate are all Dems.
Historically that would mean a HUGE night for Republicans.
Not just that, BUT...
... Biden has low approval ratings, stock market is down, a recession is looming, and inflation is hitting record heights.
All of this spelled out a MASSIVE Republican blow out.
But so far that has not happened and in many cases Democrats are beating Republicans.
Read 6 tweets
Nov 8
🧵THE WALT DISNEY COMPANY Q4 AND FISCAL 2022 EARNINGS THREAD:
Follow along for insight and analysis. I am a lawyer and investor who has been covering $DIS for years.
Results expected in 10 mins. Followed by a conference call and Q&A with Disney CEO Bob Chapek and CFO McCarthy
(1)
The big data points that we will look at first are...
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Total Revenue, Park Revenue, DTC Revenue (and losses), streaming ARPU, streaming sub count, and operating income at the parks.
(2) $DIS
More importantly for stock holders will be the 2023 guidance.
Will a potential recession lower future guidance and is this rapid increase in theme park revenue be sustainable if unemployment ticks up as the Fed continues to raise rates to fight inflation.
(3) $DIS
Read 43 tweets

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