By the end of the day we may know if NV has rendered Georgia irrelevant or if everyone still has Georgia on their minds.
Adam Laxalt is ahead by 862 votes, or .09%, closer than when his grandfather beat Harry Reid in 1974 for this seat.
There are 23,000 or so votes to count in Clark County. If Catherine Cortez Masto can win just 55 percent of those, under what she has done since Tuesday, she will be ahead. That would leave about 8,000 or so in Washoe, where she won by 10% Friday, and a few thousand rural votes.
We won't know whether the patterns will hold until votes are released sometime today and/or tonight.
You can keep asking me when and I will keep telling you: Hell if I know. It has been haphazard so far.
Don't forget there also are about 5.5K votes from Clark provisionals, too.
The provisionals will be counted next week, along with whatever mail need to be cured -- there will be thousands of those, too.
It's highly unlikely the rural votes left will offset the urban votes, but unless the CCM urban margins are huge today, we probably can't call it.
I'll be on MSNBC on and off trying to make sense of it all.
I appreciate all of the attention to my beloved state and my analysis. I ask again: If you appreciate it, too, and the work of @TheNVIndy, please go on the nonprofit site and donate.
Thanks, and one more thing...
@TheNVIndyelectoralvote.com has done a projection looking at established patterns and projecting what would happen if they hold. It's hard to estimate the rural vote because it has been so erratic and hard to get info. But this is worth looking at:
Thread on NV ballot-counting:
I know the "NV takes too long" memes have started (again), and we deserve it. But let's go over what is happening and what is not:
1. This is only the second mail-dominant election we have had. And the process required by law is laborious.
1/6
It would be a fruitful discussion for lawmakers to have if this is the best way to run a railroad. Changing deadlines, providing more resources, etc. Sure, the Dems changed the law to help them. But guiding principle should be maximizing accessibility to voting.
2/6
2. Those crying fraud -- from Trump to Lindsey Graham -- either don't understand the process or don't care. They also are bad at math. All campaigns knew the rules since the mail ballot law passed last year. Anyone acting like Louis Renault now is playacting, lying or both.
3/6
The latest on Washoe from Sean. As he said, we are trying to sort through the confusion about Clark ballots, but with mail, it is fluid because of ballots that need to be cured. In Clark, there are more than 7,100 ballots taken out of the mix and still eligible for curing. 1/
Not all of those ballots will be cured , but many will be. There are also more than 5,000 provisional ballots that will be counted, but we will not know all the cured ballots and provisionals until next week.
You with me so far?
So here is what we know about Clark:
2/
There are 56,259 ballots that have not been counted -- some of those will not be tabulated because they will need cures. Impossible to tell how many.
There are also some Clark County ballots that will be tabulated by tonight. We don't know how many. Trying to find out.
3/
That's the drop box number, lower than the Ds had hoped for.
Add to 27K Gloria announced today and it's about 84K in mail we know have yet to be counted in Clark and 57K in Washoe for a total of 141,000 mail ballots in urban Nevada that will decide the U.S. Senate race.
Early #s:
--GOP up 2 to 1 in urban NV, not inc. drop boxes. #s do not signal huge turnout.
-- If you just count those, Rs now have statewide lead.
--Of first 20K who voted in Clark, overall male-female was 48-44., 800 voters were 18-24,
Still early, still ignoring mentions.
Even adding the 40K votes cast so far in Clark still leaves the biggest county under 40 percent overall, with 800,000 eligible voters who have not cast ballots.
Meanwhile all the state websites are down, so the Italian satellites are doing their thing.
But my numbers are fine!
52K have now voted in Clark in-person today.
Waiting for @JohnRSamuelsen to break it down because the file breaks my poor Mac.