#NY17 was a GOP flip; #NY18 a Dem hold both due to voters who Orthodox Jewish. #NY19 was a GOP flip due in part to Orthodox Jews.
Trump won 90% of this vote in 2020
Anyone who thinks running from Trump helps @HouseGOP's is clueless. It's passive at best; a negative at worst.
IN FACT: Trump's work on prison reform and his overall friendly approach to Orthodox Jews were used in favor of Republicans; certainly in #NY17. A leading Grand Rabbi in one of these districts criticized his flock post election as to how Trumpism overtook the Orthodox community!
In fact, Thursday AM, @lawler4ny (who won by a few thousand votes due to HUGE support among Orthodox Jews) said on CNN that the GOP should move on from Trump in '24.
At night he was at a Kosher Deli. He took incoming for saying it.
I was there. I heard it. From many people.
A district up North in #NY18, @PatRyanUC won narrowly after having net support among Orthodox Jews. His pitch to OJs wasn't that Trump is bad. Trump wasn't a topic. It would blow up in Ryan's face if that was his sale to voters who are OJ.
His record as UC Executive spoke.
The Dem-aligned national media are not interested in driving a narrative that helps Republicans, and the anti-Trump GOP Establishment is willing to blow up seats just to own Trump, so my on-the-ground feedback from #NY17, #NY18 and #NY19 will fall on deaf ears.
Great!
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"Candidate Quality" is the buzzword that the Gulag Guards told the inmates about after breakfast was denied.
The prisoners turn on each other thinking they stand a chance if only they behaved better.
Dems can take out anyone with the same ease; regardless of "quality."
"They lost because they spoke about 2020," say the Gulag Guards who won the House, White House and Senate after spending years investigating the legitimacy of the 2016 elections.
The Gulag Guards who spent 72 hours talking about Trump's fitness for office and the need to trigger the 25th after his slow walk down a ramp at West Point, R convincing the inmates that Fetterman's health was a plus for him.
I am sure that would be the talk if he were a GOPer.
1/5 Kemp signed new election laws into place following the 2020 elections (meaning, it was predicated on 2020 having issues) and his opponent was @staceyabrams; hardly a bad candidate.
Yet, Kemp won by a margin of 7.6!
This blows up two major talking points about the midterms:
2/5 One being that talking/acting on claims regarding 2020 is a loser. The other: Candidate quality. (Fetterman won. High quality 🤓).
But hey Narratives live on even if there aren't facts to back it such as Clinton's 1992 win being due to the line "It's the economy, stupid."
3/5 Clinton won only 43% of the popular vote in 1992; that's less than the 45% Dem Dukakis won in 1988 when the Reagan/Bush economy was booming. Only diff is that 45% in 1988 was not enough to win but it was in 1992 due to the split on the center/center-right among Bush/Perot.
A decade ago, Republicans were divorced from their last GOP POTUS (Bush). He didn't appear at the convention and his name was almost not mentioned.
Now Republicans do it with Trump.
All they have is Reagan who never had the House; left GOP with less Senate seats than Trump did.
These idiots are such Republicans that they buy whatever garbage the gulag guards tell them and they turn on each other instead of on the guards with the hope that the guards will be nice and fair to them. It's going on for decades.
Sad.
Many of those who ran from Bush in 2012 and are calling for the GOP to run from Trump, supported Jeb BUSH for the 2016 nomination.
Zeldin didn't hug or run from Trump and lost by only 5+ in a deep-blue state!
Dems and kept hammering him on Trump. Maybe if he embraced Trump he could've made up the gap from pro-Trumpers since anti-Trumpers anyway got the anti-Trump message from Dems.
Who knows.
Then there is the part of Never/Non-Trumpers saying that X can't win yet those Never/Non-Trumpers either don't vote for X or even actively oppose X. When X loses, the Nevers are all "HAHA. We TOLD YOU they can't win!"
Let's not be callous about his wounds, but politics often involves luck. For example: 12 days before a midterm election that she was about to lose, a crazy somehow avoided security measures to attack Pelosi's husband and Dems are using it against GOPs.
Same thing goes for 1/6:
On the one hand lawmaker's lives were in real danger when security failed for a crowd that didn't even move rope lines once inside, but then - politically - Dems used it the next 19 months against the GOP and Trump.
Pelosi has luck.
With stocks too.
I agree with @KurtSchlichter that the @HouseGOP majority, if as it appears they will be one, should issue subpoenas for videos, phone calls and text of the Pelosi's house, staff and police to get to the bottom of this attack on our democracy that almost killed the Speaker.
Once again this genius bought and sold media narratives just as he did against Kavanaugh and also regarding the #BidenRaidOnTrump: After advocating for COVID-19 vaccination for over a year, Ben Shapiro says he was deceived: "We were lied to by everyone." theblaze.com/news/after-adv…
Time and again, Shapiro admits being taken on a ride by media but he then gets sucked into the next hoax when it matters until he wakes up a year or two too late.
What measures is he implementing not to be clowned again?
His fans are welcome to reply.
Probably by 2024-2025 he will walk back some of that too. He was a sucker for collusion for a long while too.