Thread by @lara_putnam

It was certainly plausible to think that John Fetterman would have a uniquely strong performance among white working-class or rural Pennsylvanians but... that didn't turn out to be the case at all?🤷‍♀️

The results are especially striking because surely holding everything equal, one would expect Doug Mastriano's appeal to be strongest in the rural+rust belt areas that swung hard in support of Donald Trump: & Oz to be more appealing in the upscale/moderate/cosmopolitan suburbs?

The darker green counties here are the ones where Shapiro outperformed Fetterman most strongly: which is the same as saying, where Oz outperformed Mastriano most strongly. SCPA/the capitol region, Bucks, but also Cambria, Westmoreland, Butler, Erie🤷‍♀️

The light yellow counties are where Fetterman came closes to hitting Shapiro's numbers—or Mastriano came closest to Oz's. So: the very very rural northern tier, Philadelphia, & Pike & Monroe (which, given proximity to NJ, is kind of funny).

There was a bizarre week October when multiple reporters wanted to ask me if Fetterman was "doing enough" to win voters in Philly & I was like: I am not a campaign manager, who knows! The CW clearly was that Philly wd be Fetterman's weak spot; actually it was one of his strongest

So: lots of things going on at once. If I had to guess, I'd say the core drivers are something like this👇. And maybe regions w/lots of NJ expats weren't too keen on voting for another?
(Kidding about that last part.) (Although, actually...🤔)

I'm not saying Fetterman working for every vote everywhere didn't matter. On the contrary I keep saying showing up everywhere *does* matter👇This week confirms there's not just one Dem ideological/stylistic route to win rural/rustbelt voters. Use them all! pennlive.com/news/2022/11/a…

Updating my fancy graphic to reflect smart place-specific insights from comments. This seems plausible

More place-based reminders from @Dani_PA & @melwedde 👇 Josh Shapiro's back-to-basics "make government help"//"fight the right enemies" long game

@Dani_PA @melwedde 👇this is like the most lukewarm take ever, but does help me understand how both sides of the Run progressives!/Run moderates! debates can have lived experiences telling them they are right🤷‍♀️

https://twitter.com/lara_putnam/status/1591799322987081730

reattaching broken thread here (I blame Elon)

https://twitter.com/lara_putnam/status/1591770629380136960

@Dani_PA @melwedde Ok adding this for the true PA data geeks who've hung on this far: w/in Allegheny County (so, holding TV ad spend constant) *both* Shapiro & Fetterman overperformed Biden most in the most rural & Republican areas: Shapiro at least in part by persuasion, earning 12% more raw votes

Shapiro's overperformace above Fetterman (comparing each to Biden baseline) was strongest in the Trumpiest precincts in the county. In contrast, Fetterman actually *outran* Shapiro in Biden's best precincts (=heavily African American urban core)

No one is #onhere saying talk to the short Jewish guy about how to win back Trump voters, & ask John Fetterman about how being associated w/criminal justice reform can help Dems stem their losses among urban core voters but... that would be a reasonable read of the #s before us?