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Lakshya Jain Profile picture
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Nov 14 • 3 tweets • 1 min read
So, with Kari Lake on life support in #AZGov, it really does look like the Democratic strategy of quasi-boosting horrible GOP nominees in primaries is about to work out to the best possible degree.
Given the success of Kimberly Yee, I do think Karrin Taylor Robson would have won by a couple points.
The Dems “boosting” Lake wasn’t really much, FTR — all they did was send out a mailer highlighting KTR’s support of Democrats in the past, but lord did it generate a whole firestorm On Here, and Lake and her allies used it in a rally too.

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Lakshya Jain Profile picture
Nov 14
Yeah, the pre-election narrative from certain schools of thought was full of “Democrats should message on economics instead of on abortion or Jan 6th”.

IMO the problem is: voters suck at gauging hypotheticals. Nobody believes social security is at risk when a Dem is president
So voters could very clearly understand how putting in election deniers and insurrectionists could harm them because they’d just seen it. And abortion finally became a real, pressing issue for millions who lived in states where it suddenly became at risk again.
But like, in districts where the GOP ran these candidates who voters clearly didn’t believe were extreme, or in states where abortion wasn’t at risk, the swing was much more pronounced, both because Dems didn’t feel the need to turn out as much and they didn’t gain in persuasion.
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
Nov 13
Sharing a (long) personal anecdote, because that's all I can add to the great points Christy has made.

Last year, when she announced, I QT'd it saying "Wanted: Literally *anyone* else to run and beat an insurrectionist in a Biden +12 district that this person somehow lost" 🧵
That got a ton of interactions. It was also plain mean. What I didn't expect was that I'd see a polite message request from Christy asking to talk, saying that I may have lacked context about the race.
I'd lived in a world where my account was small enough to not reach many, so that was surprising. We set up a call and chatted for 40 minutes, and I was surprised at the points she brought up re: the impacts of spending, the Hill scandal, downballot leans, and field organizations
Read 13 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
Nov 13
This is probably my biggest regret of the election cycle, but we actually didn’t change it because of right wing polls.

We simply thought that the environment nationally wasn’t good enough for Dems to pull the margins needed and that Biden’s approval mattered more than Oz’s.
I described this in our ratings piece but simply put, we thought it’d be an R+2 year with less state variance. Not a wave, but in PA, that’d be a red year and we thought Biden’s approval would matter more with indies than candidate approval when spending was roughly equal.
The nonpartisan polling aggregate here was, I think, D+3 — considering how polls in PA had missed in a consistent way recently and considering that this still suggested a tight race, I defaulted more to fundamentals. Should have trusted state level polling more, but we’ll learn.
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
Nov 12
One weird thing about this cycle is that each state had its own environment. Virginia had a modest red wave, New York had a pretty heavy one, Florida a red tsunami, and Pennsylvania/Michigan an effective blue wave.
I think this cycle will be one of the hardest to do retrospective modeling for and I have a feeling I’m going to need to incorporate gubernatorial numbers in some way to better gauge statewide environments, because otherwise this is going to be impossible.
I think, once I do that and adjust for money spent, the worst candidates are going to be as follows…

1) Blake Masters
2) Herschel Walker
3) JD Vance
4) Mehmet Oz
5) Adam Laxalt
6) Ron Johnson

Not sure who edges out the top spot between Masters + Walker. Real all-star cast here
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
Nov 12
Among the funniest things in every batch is how Blake Masters consistently gets the lowest vote share of any Republican on the ballot. Good argument that he's the worst nominee of the cycle for Republicans.
I'm a bit more sympathetic to Oz because looking at the notion of gubernatorial coattails in several key battlegrounds, it was always going to be hard for him to win when Mastriano was on the ticket (not that he made it any easier for himself).
I'll confess I didn't really fully buy into the notion of strong gubernatorial coattails on federal races and thought the impact would be somewhat marginal. I think it was greater than I expected -- it'll be something I keep in mind next time. No way I'd have PA going R again.
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
Nov 12
I *really* don't see a path for Laxalt here any longer. Washoe should put CCM over the top; this was an absolute disaster of a batch for him, because he needed to keep her margins in the mid-teens to stand a chance and instead he lost it by 30.
Networks are going to be conservative, and nobody will call this race until CCM officially takes the lead because this is going to decide control of the US Senate before the runoffs even happen. But it's very clear *why* team Laxalt is texting others that they think they've lost.
There are a few rural ballots left; however, good margins with the rest of the Clark mail and Washoe should pretty much cancel those out and then some, and then it'll be down to provisionals
Read 5 tweets

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