Scot126 Profile picture
Nov 15 48 tweets 18 min read
$panr $pthrf #panr @Josh_Young_
Josh - please treat this email thread with the seriousness it demands. Bison Interests is a regulated entity. You have 12 hours from the time of this tweet to correct the record otherwise I will be filing a formal complaint with the SEC. 1/
This is not a threat. This is a guarantee.
On Sept 20th this year you tweeted the following: "Directors selling millions of shares of Pantheon Resources stock, and then being "awarded" the same amount of shares. Not a good look. Not involved, no recommendation. $panr" 2/
You then attached a document which appears to be an excerpt of the $panr RNS dated 20/9/22.
I replied to your original tweet informing you I had, in the course of my career in UK investment banking, carried out many of these types of transactions on behalf of UK listed..3/
#panr
...company directors and PDMRs. I went on to explain in forensic detail the nature of a contemporaneous exercise and sale of company options under UK law and London Stock Exchange rules. The company's broker, Canaccord in this instance (@CG_Driven ), sells the...4/
$panr #panr
...ordinary shares in the secondary market but, on settlement, the exercise price of the directors' options is remitted to the company's bank account and duly noted in the formal accounts for that fiscal year. The remainder of the funds realised from...5/
$panr #panr
...the share sales is remitted to the company's payroll account where employee taxable deductions are made, following which the employee is paid on the next pay day.
This mechanism is repeated daily on the London Stock Exchange and has been for years. 6/
$panr #panr $pthrf
Josh retweeted his 20/9/22 post today, presumably in support of @muddywatersre recently declared short position, whilst tagging in @JamieNimmo63 (the journalist who wrote an article about the $panr short on 13/11/22). 7/
#panr $pthrf
Josh - I suggest you immediately contact a UK-qualified securities lawyer or banker. Fact-check this thread and show them the $panr RNS dated 20/7/22. They will confirm the process is exactly as I described above. To be crystal clear to you and anyone else reading...8/
#panr
...this thread, replacement shares or options were NOT issued to the three $panr directors as Josh has alleged publicly twice, the second time after being comprehensively fact-checked.
Josh - this unhinged campaign you're waging is madness. Your actions are not...9/
#panr $pthrf
...appropriate for a fund manager running other people's investments.
I repeat, you have 12 hours from the time of the publication of this thread to publicly delete, retract and apologise for the baseless allegation you have...10/
$panr $pthrf #panr
wilfully elected to post twice. I will be filing a complaint with the SEC if you do not correct the record.
To @JamieNimmo63 Please fact-check the above with your inhouse legal dept and/or fact-check it with your...11/
$panr $pthrf #panr
...corporate broking contacts.
@CG_Driven - for your records.
@muddywatersre @BurggrabenH @viceroyresearch - Alex attempted to doxx me today and tweeted out the passport page and photo of a "Kay Rieck" and published a London and UAE address. Mr Rieck appears to work...12/
#panr
...in the O&G sector and has had at least two brushes with the law as far as can be discerned from a simple Google search. I have never met Mr Rieck.
I don't know what the hell you clowns are up to but I want it to stop right now. I understand multiple $panr...13/
#panr $pthrf
...shareholders have contacted the FCA today to report your conduct. I have not done so yet. Alex - you have until 7am UK time today, (15/11/22) to delete your doxx tweets, correct the record and apologise otherwise I will be filing a report with the FCA. 14/
#panr $panr
To $panr shareholders. This bear raid *appears* to be co-ordinated. Either Alex has retained a private investigator or someone else has. That doesn't happen overnight. Either way, he elected to tweet it out (despite being advised it was a fraud). 15/
#panr $pthrf
To any journalists, market commentators, bloggers following this sinister exchange. Before publishing any content on $panr, journalists' professional protocols demand the company be given right of reply. Together with other #panr shareholders, I will be monitoring..16/
$pthrf
...any news articles to ensure the company is given that right. Happy to contact editors if this protocol is not followed.
Shorters: you appear to think you can bully the shareholders of $panr to achieve a financial return. There are a large number of O&G experts,...17/
#panr
...legal and financial professionals who have, over the years, become shareholders. I started working in the equity markets in 1994. You will not intimidate me into silence. Be prepared to be fact-checked on every single occasion you make a public comment about #panr. 18/
$pthrf
More generally to all readers of this thread. Pantheon Great Bear has been active in Alaska for 12 years. In that time they have invested $300m in Alaska, of which $80m was invested to shoot the largest 3D seismic study in the state. In that period, $panr has...19/
#panr $pthrf
...drilled 6 wells: Alcor, Merak, Alkaid-1, Talitha #A, Theta West-1 and Alkaid-2. The records are available for all to access freely on the State of Alaska Dept of Natural Resources website. The state of Alaska has awarded #panr two Production Units at Alkaid and Talitha. 20/
Lee Keeling & Assoc have authored two Independent Expert's Reports. AHS Baker Hughes has conducted two Volatiles Analysis studies after which they concluded the Basin Floor Fan reservoir was at least 10.5 miles long and c.1000ft thick. AHS Baker Hughes...21/
$panr $pthrf #panr
...concluded $panr has discovered "a world class petroleum system". [see link below]
pantheonresources.com/investors/shar…
Schlumberger are currently working on the 3D visualisation study for #panr's dataroom. 22/
$pthrf
The two men credited with the discovery of the Alpine oilfield in Alaska are *on the record* stating they've "never seen anything like it" [$panr's discovery] and "this will be the largest discovery of our careers".[see link below for the 1.2 billion barrel Alpine oilfield] 23/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alpine,_A…
The $panr BoD and external consultants have been fully transparent with shareholders and the market. There are hours and hours of webinars, freely available on YouTube. @josh_young_ has publicly alleged that O&G experts aren't on the #panr register. /24
Factually incorrect. The register is packed with a multitude of O&G professionals. That Josh doesn't know any of them belies his lack of research.
$panr has just finished drilling its first production well, Alkaid-2. It is located about 15 miles south of Deadhorse, Alaska. 25/
The drill pad is c.300m from the Dalton Highway and the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System. Alkaid-2 is a horizontal well which means it started off as a vertical well but very gradually angles to the horizontal section. The horizontal section at Alkaid-2 is...26/
#panr $panr $pthrf
...5300ft. $panr management has guided that a commercial outcome would see 150 barrels of oil per day produced at the surface for every 1000ft of horizontal section. Thus 150 x 5.3 = 795 bopd. A multi-stage frack (30 stages) was carried out on the horizontal ...27/
$pthrf #panr
...section. Clean up operations began, during which a flare was observed during multiple satellite fly pasts. [see link below]

The company confirmed more fracking sand returned to the surface than expected and has reacted by installing larger...28/
$panr
...scale sifting equipment. A coiled tubing unit has been mobilised to the site after which further clean up work will continue and the Long Term Production Test will re-commence. The market and shareholders are waiting (im)patiently for the initial flow data! 29/
Some commentators have questioned how $panr can be valued at c.$700m if it hasn't produced a barrel of commercial oil. It's a fair question. The traditional method of valuing E&P companies is to use a risked/unrisked model. The company has asserted it has achieved...30/
#panr
...the threshold required for 100% Chance of Success geologically (the oil is definitely present). The commercial Chance of Success was assessed to be "between 60 and 70%" by CTO Bob Rosenthal *before* the 21/22 winter drilling season which saw AHS Baker Hughes...31/
$panr $pthrf
...confirm the presence of a regional seal between Talitha and Theta West (a distance of 10.5 miles minimum) and a reservoir termed the Basin Floor Fan being a staggering 1000ft thick! Even when the banking analysts attach a risk factor as conservative...32/
$panr $pthrf #panr
...as 10-20%, the NPV arrived at is >200p per share and up to 300p per share. In the same model, a fully unrisked valuation ($panr's geological and commercial model is fully proven) easily moves to figures well in excess of 1000p per share. To provide further context...33/
$panr
...$panr has already discovered one of the largest accumulations of oil ever found in the USA. *If* this Oil in Place proves to be commercially productive, then #panr will have discovered the second or third largest conventional onshore oilfield in US history. You may..34/
$pthrf
...observe that none of the bears acknowledge the sheer scale of the success case. That is precisely why they cannot get their heads around the traditional NPV valuation models used by the O&G sector, because the upside (not even the blue sky or upper case scenario)...35/
$panr
...on proof of commerciality is so massive. They also refuse to believe a tiny UK-listed AIM stock could possibly have found this potential oilfield when the likes of BP and ARCO couldn't. IMHO they would do well to note $panr's chairman was the Ops Director of Prudhoe Bay...36/
(largest conventional oilfield in US history) when he worked at ARCO. $panr's CEO also worked at Prudhoe Bay before he was President of ARCO Int'l, responsible for an annual capex budget of $1bn.
#panr's Alaskan project is a serious endeavour run by serious O&G experts...37/
...with decades and decades of global and Alaskan experience. The shorters are alleging this group of men is engaging in some wide-ranging fraud which, in order to be successfully executed, *must* require the cooperation of tens/hundreds of professionals...38/
$panr $pthrf #panr
...in eSeis, Schlumberger, Lee Keeling, AHS Baker Hughes and, vitally, the geologists, petrophysicists, geophysicists, reservoir engineers, seismic engineers, civil engineers of the regulator in Alaska, being the Dept of Natural Resources. Presumably it hasn't...39/
$panr $pthrf
...occurred to the shorts that the DNR (with >50 years of Alaska North Slope data at its disposal) couldn't spot fraudulent drilling and seismic data. With respect, this isn't Indonesia, is it Josh?
As I bring this thread to a close (well done for getting this far)...40/
$panr
...for the record, the three exec directors who exercised and sold stock in September '22 sold c.11% of their combined exposure to $panr's equity (via shares and options). Poorly timed? Maybe. But evidence of a fraudulent grand conspiracy encompassing...41/
#panr $pthrf
...tens/hundreds of people in Alaska and elsewhere? No chance IMHO.
@muddywatersre - Carson, if Josh, Hempton, Alex and Fraser Herring have cited any of the above when discussing $panr then I trust you've found something else on which to base your short. 42/
#panr $pthrf
Proof of commercial flow rates will blow your short out of the water as the market immediately re-rates the risk factor. Good news is there's not too long to wait for the data from Alkaid-2!
Also for the record, not once have I heard a $panr employee or...43/
#panjr $pthrf
...external consultant declare that the Alaskan project is "guaranteed" or "a sure thing". Not once.
The key "known unknown" is whether there is sufficient lateral continuity in the distinct and stacked reservoirs to deliver commercial production. 44/
$panr $pthrf #panr
The *fact* that not one of the publicly declared shorters has even mentioned this scientific issue and instead rely solely on "it's too good to be true" or "must be a fraud" and "don't believe there's any oil" and "there's no seal [at Theta West]" belies...45/
$panr #panr $pthrf
...their hopelessly superficial "research". $panr's Alaskan project may still fail, but it will *not* be for any nefarious reasons, IMHO. Rather it will be because the properties of the reservoirs mean that this massive, "world-class petroleum system" cannot be...46/
#panr $pthrf
...engineered to flow in sufficient volume to be commercial.
Best wishes to all personnel and contractors currently working at Alkaid-2 in Alaska. Hope the work proceeds safely and smoothly. To everyone else, keep an eye on the satellite feed for evidence of flaring...47/
$panr
...as a potential sign that the shorts are going to be roasted! Good luck all. /end
$panr $pthrf #panr

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More from @Scot126126

Nov 14
$panr $pthrf #panr @CG_Driven
Pantheon Resources (PANR LN) – Stock down 16% - Muddy Waters short attack: Weekend press staying that Muddy Waters is in the process of a short attack on Pantheon. They have not published anything (that we can find) for the company to make any...1/
...specific push-backs on, so in the meantime, all we can do is reiterate our thesis.
=> Well-testing remains key: I revert back to our research note from Oct 26th.
=> Alkaid#2 update - encouragement and challenges: No details beyond that the well produced..2/
$panr #panr $pthrf
...at initial fluid rates "in the thousands of barrels per day" with around 10% average oil cut.
=> The operational issue: Frack sand production has been higher than expected with limited handling capacity in the temporary test facilities. More positively,..3/
$panr #panr $pthrf
Read 10 tweets
Nov 14
@RieckKay @BurgghabenH @TwitterSupport
Dear Mr Rieck - I am sorry to inform you that @BurgghabenH has hired a private investigator in an attempt to doxx me. The private investigator and @BurgghabenH now appear to believe you are the account holder known as Scot126. 1/
@BurgghabenH has tweeted out a copy of your passport and photo and your address in the UAE. I am so sorry you have been caught up in this dreadful conduct. I don't know what's going on, what his motivation is, I just don't understand what's happening? There is a public...2/
...debate within investment circles in the UK and US about a London listed company called Pantheon Resources. Some hedge funds are alleging fraud. I disagree and have challenged them to present supporting evidence. But look at the lengths they're going to now. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Nov 13
$panr #panr #panr
There is no "gotcha" question remaining outstanding. After 12 years, $300m invested in Alaska, 6 wells and the award of two Production Units from the Dept of Natural Resources the core "known unknown" is lateral continuity.
Only Hempton thinks there's...1/
..."no oil". Everyone else from Peel Hunt to Baker Hughes to eSeis acknowledges the Oil in Place is >23 billion barrels. The key debate prior to obtaining the empirical data is whether commercial flow can be achieved from $panr's stacked reservoirs of light 35-40 API...2/
#panr
...crude oil. I assess that the *fact* "thousands of barrels" of fluid was returned to the surface during the initial clean up phase gives a strong indication the reservoir has, after a multi-stage frack to stimulate, the properties to allow commercial extraction. 3/
$panr #panr
Read 4 tweets
Nov 12
@Josh_Young_1 @BisonInterests @contrarian8888 @EnergyHobbs @Gary02001438 @AlaskaPanr @MuttOil @AIMhonesty
A fellow $panr shareholder told me you made a fatuous readacross from the price bid per acre the #panr bid in the recent lease sales run by the State...1/
$pthrf
...of Alaska Dept of Natural Resources. Something about the implied valuation of $panr's total acreage being c.$6m v's a mkt cap of c.$700m? Apart from the *fact* #panr is the *only* party which possesses 3D seismic data over that area (Great Bear invested c.$80m on shooting...2/
...seismic in the 2010s), I calculate the new northern extension to Theta West will see $panr's OIP move towards a gigantic 30bbo. Yes, that's correct. OIP approaching 30bbo, making it a larger accumulation of oil than Kuparuk River. I presume you're aware..3/
#panr $pthrf
Read 17 tweets
Oct 23
@David37655174 @chmok @contrarian8888 Yes, I have. I'd firstly refer you to the Canaccord and WH Ireland analysts' risked/unrisked models. Canaccord has a risked NPV of 300p and WH Ireland is c.180p (from memory?). Unrisked NPVs get you to 800p-1400p per share. 1/
$panr $pthrf #panr
@David37655174 @chmok @contrarian8888 The question you pose illustrates exactly the dilemma which $panr presents to the market. Using the traditional risked/unrisked E&P valuation methodology, the sheer scale of $panr's OIP and Technically Recoverable Resource means that even if a low risk of success..2/
#panr $pthrf
@David37655174 @chmok @contrarian8888 ...is attached to the project's potential value, a number is delivered which is at least double that of the current SP. Removing the risked calculation altogether leads to telephone numbers of NPV.
In the scenario where Alkaid-2 delivers a commercial flow, I contend...3/
$panr
Read 8 tweets
Oct 13
@contrarian8888 $pthrf
A thread on the *potential* implications of $panr proving commerciality at Alkaid-2 in the coming days. I wish to be more clear about the *upside risk* to this investment case, if proved.

- #panr has announced the discovery of an oil accumulation...1/
...in excess of 23 billion barrels of Oil in Place just 20 miles south of Deadhorse, Alaska. Independent validation of this data has come from the State of Alaska’s Dept of Natural Resources, eSeis, Lee Keeling & Assoc, AHS Baker Hughes and Schlumberger. 2/
#panr $panr $pthrf
I am not aware of one credible voice which refutes the Oil in Place figure.

- There is a legitimate debate that the characteristics of the stacked reservoirs discovered by $panr mean that recovering the oil commercially will be difficult, perhaps even impossible. 3/
#panr $pthrf
Read 12 tweets

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