Thread by @arunadvaniecon

Ok, here we go for the #DontSayTheBWord #AutumnStatement

https://twitter.com/arunadvaniecon/status/1593175487572217859

Actually, nice thread here explaining that there are some parliamentary procedural diffs btwn this and #Budget

https://twitter.com/aliceolilly/status/1593199379955224576

Priorities are stability, growth, public svcs. Let's see how we go on those

Inflation is bad. Hurts poor and bad for public svcs.

International comparisons "we aren't doing that badly" Support for institutions: no change to @BoE_Research Mandate

Time for the shots/bingo: "pay our way"

GDP falls expected, according to @OBR_UK
And rise in unemp
Going into a recession

Lots of numbers. Would prefer to just be able to look at them

https://twitter.com/arunadvaniecon/status/1592996425704812544

New fiscal rules. 5y not 3y window. Going for consolidation of 55bn

On claims of black hole/need for consolidation, see

https://twitter.com/NIESRorg/status/1592225192977354752

Key point is that “black hole” is about gap btwn current projection (which is anyway uncertain) and a particular target based on a *government set* rule. An ancient and venerable rule that has lasted since *checks notes* Jan 2022
See @commonslibrary
researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-…

See also @TheIFS ifs.org.uk/books/rewritin…

Chancellor *is* changing the rules. But choosing rules that imply 55bn cut

Richard Hughes, chair of OBR, is known to favour an approach to fiscal rules based on Public Sector Net Worth resolutionfoundation.org/publications/t… @resfoundation

This would get us away from looking at debt while ignoring the assets side of the balance sheet. Leads to problem that things look better when state assets are sold off, even though we are collectively no better off

Bingo/shot: "sound money", "conservatives believe in low taxes"

505:50 split btwn tax and spend cuts

As predicted 🪁, lowering the threshold at which 45p rate kicks in. Not bad idea. Raises £1bn from top couple of percent. But could do better. Details here:

https://twitter.com/arunadvaniecon/status/1592993284712173568

"Maintaining allowances" = allowing fiscal drag to do its thing
Widely trailed. Totally expected. Not really “stealth” rise, given it has been in the papers for three weeks. Faint-hearted approach.

Doesn’t fix anything (and there is plenty to fix). Only upside is that it raises a lot of money without having to make any active choice. Politically easier because the losers lose from Chancellor’s apparent inaction, rather than noticeable change

Bottled it. 🍼
No Lawsonian reform to capital gains, Hunt instead tinkering round the edges. Not a bad reform, and one called for by @OTS_UK. But leaves *many* problems in place (taxing inflation, boundary btwn gains and income, death uplift, leaving before realising gains)

Short version of my recommendations on gains:
theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/o…

Long version: warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/econom…

Employer NICs freeze. Called already by @adamcorlett.

https://twitter.com/adamcorlett/status/1592554265175674881

@adamcorlett Adjustment to R&D tax credits, to try to deal with avoidance. Area for @HelenMiller_IFS more than me

Windfall tax is going to be fiddled with. Higher energy profits levy, also as trailed (25=>35%).

45% levy on elec generators.

14bn

Going to revalue business rates. Justification for this is ace. Total agree.

Only Q: why not do the same for council tax?

Here come the cuts to pub svcs....

Lots of cuts coming. Others better placed than me to discuss the details. But as you look at the money that is being taken out of various public svcs, remember that there absolutely are alternative tax rises that could have been chosen:
arunadvani.com/taxreform.html

"Concerned about rise in inactivity among working age adults". Going to be used to justify limits to benefit increases?

📢Obligatory reminder that many ppl on universal credit are in work

Crackdown on benefit fraud and error. Could do more on this for tax as well

Patriotic stuff on armed forces. Recognise need to increase defence spending. But integrated review needs updating since it was pre-Ukraine. So will hold off til that happens

Not returning aid spending to 0.7%. Will make some cheer and others boo. More fundamental issue is not 0.7% or 0.5%, but making sure whatever we badge as “aid” is actually used for that purpose

https://twitter.com/gamblingondev/status/1585163282939523072

Not going to step back from climate responsibilities. Fully committed to 68% reduction in emissions by 2030 (though no announcements on carbon tax or major decarb spending)

Education. "AS Cx, want to know, will every young person leave educ system with skills they'd get elsewhere". Appointed a new advisor. Reminder that there was an indep advisory board on skills, that was abolished 8m ago, after just 15m existance
gov.uk/government/gro…

Investing more cash in educ, though didn't catch if real terms increase (someone can let me know)

Staff shortages in NHS. Makes some jokes about having previously been chair of health and social care cttee.

It isn't all abt money, but pensions issues are a problem at the top.

Going through the different bits of gvmt spend. Talking about importance. But actually not a lot of new cash being committed

Delaying the social care reform (again), so money can be used for other things. Again "allocating more money" to social care, relative to what was prev announced, but not clear from what is said whether this is real increase

Another drink/bingo "tackling waste and inefficiency"

Another advisory position being set up, this one in health. Interesting that this is all stuff that the Cx announces, when it feels like it should be stuff the relevant SoS should be doing.

@instituteforgov - is this normal?

bingo/drink: "doom loop"

Lots of noise in chamber. Speaker describes this as a "budget statement". At least I'm not the only one who is confused by it all.

Bingo "you cannot borrow your way to growth"

(that's why we don't encourage young people to take out loans to get university education.)

Going for energy indep + energy efficiency

40% of our elec is renewable (though not of our energy use - gas still very important for heating)

to increase clean energy, going to proceed with Sizewell C new nuclear

"national ambition" to reduce building and industry energy use by 15%

gvmt will spend 6bn towards this. details to come from BEIS sec. is good news, as carbon pricing isn't enough (though would be helpful as part of decarb)

infrastructure also important. don't think we should cut capital budget. so going to fix it in nominal terms. That is still a cut✂️, whatever he says

innovation. UK is good at this. world class. assume he's about to say we are going to be part of Horizon Europe (?)

Ah, no. This is "regulatory reform". Again will be consultations now. That is the theme of this #NotABudget

There were previously some murmurings about cutting red tape by watering down regulations that stop insurers going bust. Not my scene. Sensible looking thread on that possibility here:

https://twitter.com/JesseLGriffiths/status/1593163093789806592?s=20&t=FCgjTkYE-SCaFFd9E0uesw

Bingo "brexit freedoms"

Given how much he is talking about Lawson, could really have done with that CGT reform

Ah yes, there is something on that Solvency 2 insurance regulation stuff.

https://twitter.com/JesseLGriffiths/status/1593163093789806592?s=20&t=FCgjTkYE-SCaFFd9E0uesw

Ben suggests the pub spending numbers means there will indeed be big real cuts to pay

https://twitter.com/BenZaranko/status/1593210067960369152

Controlling for education, ppl in pub sect (on ave) no better off than priv sect counterparts. But huge variation across parts of country, so in some areas much worse off. And particularly the highest skilled in pub sect are much better off in priv sect
ifs.org.uk/sites/default/…

another parliamentary convention I don't get : why do the refer to each other by constituencies. I can't remember who is who that way
@instituteforgov any thoughts

Caps on public sector rents. Interesting to see conservatives supporting price caps. And interesting it is only for tenants in public sector. If important to do this, why only to those who happen to rent in public sector

biggest increase in national living wage ever
alongside obviously the biggest inflation since the NLW was brought into existence

benefits *are* going up in line with inflation, as is the benefit cap. Important to remember it has been a long run since these have been increased, so ppl receiving benefits have been experiencing higher prices for some time

pension credit, for poorest pensioners, will also go up with inflation

and continuing the bonkers triple lock. point isn't about whether this is the right increase now, but that the lock itself is madness

And now we wait for him to sit, so we can actually get the numbers

And here are the docs: gov.uk/government/pub…