Reporting this week that @Jeremy_Hunt is considering halving the rate of #InheritanceTax at #AutumnStatement

🚨@David_Sturrock and I have new @theIFS piece this morning looking at what the effects would be
Quick 🧵

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1725591843709051004

💰𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮𝐞
🔸Halving rate means halving take from IHT
🔸Small but growing effect - current take is 7bn, but rising to 15bn in 10y - growing fiscal headache🤕
🔸Sense of scale: cost of halving rate = cost of benefit cuts that have been floated

New @TheIFS report out today by @David_Sturrock and me, looking at #inheritancetax, which has been in the news a bit lately

A short 🧵 on what we find

SPOILER: Inheritance tax is useful, but not for the reason you think…

#taxtwitter First up, a reminder of how IHT works.

Big pic🖼️:
Everyone gets 325k taxfree + 175k taxfree if it comes from a house that they are passing to their kids.
And can transfer taxfree amounts between married (or civil partner) couples = threshold of usu. £1m

The real #Zahawi scandal isn't that he failed to pay £3.7m on his £27m, it's that he was only supposed to pay £3.7m. That is a lower tax rate than someone working full time on minimum wage #TaxTwitter
theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/f… After the work of @AnnaIsaac @DanNeidle @Independent (and others) bringing to light this individual case, and whether everything owed was paid, time for us to have a deeper discussion of how much tax is actually owed on capital gains.

Strange headline @BBCNews, which doesn't line up much with the content

A short 🧵 with some notes on errors made in the article, and the evidence on what we do/don't know about #nondoms responding to #tax reform

#TaxTwitter
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi… Have to say, my least fav. way to start 'evidence' part of an article is with an interested party. This one starts by citing one tax advisor, who says potential tax changes are first topic of conversatn with his clients. I mean, 🤯? What else would you talk to tax advisor abt??

Just heard Cx on @BBCr4today talking about #nondoms. Want to clear up a few points he raised. 1⃣ The 3.2bn (in £2018) raised from abolishing the regime is *our* (me+@D_Burgherr+@Summers_AD) number. Labour and others have used it. But it is produced in an academically rigorous way with full receipts.
warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/econom…

Ok, here we go for the #DontSayTheBWord #AutumnStatement

https://twitter.com/arunadvaniecon/status/1593175487572217859

Actually, nice thread here explaining that there are some parliamentary procedural diffs btwn this and #Budget

https://twitter.com/aliceolilly/status/1593199379955224576

Lots of kite flying 🪁 ahead of tomorrow's budget💰
Thought I'd pick up on the one about starting the 45p rate at 125k. This will raise a little money from richer people, but if it doesn't sit alongside some more substantive reform it will be a missed opportunity
🧵 First, the numbers. Lowering the threshold to 125k will raise ~£850m in year 1, rising to just over £1billion by 2026/27. That is a nice round number, and therefore an easy stat to sell
arunadvani.com/taxreform.html

This paper is now out. Planned before @Annaisaac made #nondoms cool again, we use confidential, anonymised HMRC data to look at🧐
🔸who the nondoms are
🔸what they do (incl a look at bankers)
🔸where they are from
🔸where they live

🧵 1/N

warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/econom…

https://twitter.com/arunadvaniecon/status/1511720918501969921

First up: what is a non-dom?🤷

Non-doms are people who live here, like you or me. May spend whole year in UK, working, having families. What makes them diff is that they claim their permanent home is abroad (and can hopefully substantiate this).