Simon Evans Profile picture
Nov 17 5 tweets 3 min read
How does the language we've seen so far from #COP27 compare with what came out of Glasgow #COP26?

1.5C and climate pledges

COP26: "requests to revisit + strengthen as necessary to align w/ Paris temp target by end 2022"

COP27: "repeats request to align w/ 1.5C" [no deadline]
Getting to 1.5C

COP26: 1.5C "requires" -45% by 2030 & net-zero midcentury

#COP27: "notes" least-cost 1.5C is -45% by 2030
Coal

COP26 "Calls upon…inc accelerating efforts towards the phase down of unabated coal power"

#COP27 "encourages the continued efforts to accelerate measures towards…"
Crucially, however, the current cover decision "non-paper" at #COP27 is not a proper draft text

So it's guaranteed to change
For ref here are the texts

COP26 unfccc.int/sites/default/…

COP27 unfccc.int/sites/default/…

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More from @DrSimEvans

Nov 18
#COP27 FULL DRAFT COVER TEXT

➡️"urgent need for deep, rapid emissions cuts for 1.5C"
➡️"reaffirms resolution to pursue 1.5C"
➡️"accelerating efforts on coal phase OUT"
➡️still no fossil fuel phase down/out
➡️creates "dialogue" on Article 2.1c

unfccc.int/sites/default/… ImageImageImageImage
More on new #COP27 cover text

➡️"reaffirms" 1.5C means -45% by 2030 & net-zero around midcentury (SR15 rather than AR6)
➡️"urges" long-term strategies twd global netzero "by or around midcentury"
➡️"strongly urges" stronger NDCs ASAP b4 COP28

unfccc.int/sites/default/… ImageImage
More on new #COP27 cover text

➡️"grave concern" over $100bn miss (Glasgow had "deep regret")
➡️"calls on" MDBs/IFIs to "sig incr climate ambition"

unfccc.int/sites/default/… ImageImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Nov 17
#COP27 update

At 7.30pm y'day Egyptian pres said draft cover text wld be "shared tonight" & a 20pp text emerged (link)…

It mentions 1.5C and "encourages" phasedown of unabated coal (vs "calls on" last year)

It doesn't mention *all fossil fuels*

unfccc.int/sites/default/…
This text is an extremely long way from a proper draft decision and with 48hrs to go until #COP27 is suposed to end, a late finish is all but guaranteed

(Pres letter last night said committed to Friday finish but that is absolutely not going to happen)

unfccc.int/sites/default/…
Technical talks ongoing & told to finish mid-today, so COP can finish Fri [haha]

Most substantive issues are unresolved (pic)
Read 4 tweets
Nov 16
#COP27 new texts

Article 6.4 global carbon market

Like all other technical talks this was due to be more or less sorted…but still has 78 bits of bracketed text & 30 "options"

However, it does send contentious guidance on "removals" back for more work

unfccc.int/sites/default/… Image
Text also names tricksy "other A6.4ERs"

"Authorised A6.4ERs" can be used to comply w national pledges or for reg'y purposes

They're subject to "corresponding adjustments" to avoid double counting…

…but "other A6.4ERs" are not

Company A & Country B cld use the same credit! Image
At COP26 they were calling them "support units"…

This made clear they weren't emissions reductions for the buyer, whereas "other A6.4ER" says it IS an emissions reduction ("ER")

Bottom line: The name matters

carbonbrief.org/cop26-key-outc…
Read 6 tweets
Nov 16
#COP27 update

New texts emerged overnight on mitigation work prog, adaptation goal; G77 issued its preferred language on loss & damage funding; still no cover text draft

Egypt tasked crunch issues to ministerial pairs (pic)

G20 communique backed 1.5C
The G20 communique effectively repeats language from last year, including from the Glasgow Pact on "resolving to purse" 1.5C

Given the fights at #COP27 over this language, this G20 agreement is significant

The G77 paper on loss and damage funding sets out exactly what they want from the #COP27 text

Crucially, they want a new fund set up this year, with details to be worked out later by a new committee

unfccc.int/sites/default/…
Read 6 tweets
Nov 15
#COP27 cover text latest

A doc on "possible elements" is circulating (tho not published by Egyptian pres despite making much of need for a transparent process yday)

It's a list of the different stuff Parties want eg

☑️1.5C "urgency"
☑️Loss&damage funding arrangements "need"
A similar doc was published on COP26 middle Sunday, though COP27 doc is shorter & less verbose

By way of comparison, here's the first 2 sections of each…

L COP27 (framing, support)
R COP26 (context, adaptation)
The new text doesn't mention coal or fossil fuels (though the UK presidency "elements" text didn't either)

L COP27 mitigation "elements"
R COP26 mitigation elements
Read 6 tweets
Nov 14
#COP27 issue watch

What's happening on the 1.5C target?

COP26 (pic) repeated wording from Paris Agreement (par20) but put the emphasis on 1.5C (par21)…

…now some Parties are pushing for a return to Paris language, which centres on "well-below 2C" Image
Various sources say a handful of major economies are pushing for a return to Paris language, in effect removing the emphasis on 1.5C

You can see signs of this in the draft texts on the Mitigation Work Prog and the Long Term Global Goal

(see pic of bracketed text from LTGG) Image
As @MattMcGrathBBC reported overnight, G20 ministers were unable to agree climate communique over disagreements on the feasibility of 1.5C

bbc.com/news/science-e…
Read 4 tweets

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