Thread by @arunadvaniecon

Just heard Cx on @BBCr4today talking about #nondoms. Want to clear up a few points he raised.

1⃣ The 3.2bn (in £2018) raised from abolishing the regime is *our* (me+@D_Burgherr+@Summers_AD) number. Labour and others have used it. But it is produced in an academically rigorous way with full receipts.
warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/econom…

2⃣ abolition wd be "wrong thing to do for jobs and prosperity for the UK".

📢The tax benefit for migrants applies ONLY to those who (a) specifically have a load of wealth; (b) DON'T bring that wealth to the UK; (c) promise they intend to leave us📢

Not obv. helping UK jobs

In fact, we (@Summers_AD+@Feli_Koenig+@lorenzo_pss) explicitly have work looking at how much migrants contrib to UK. Lots of top earning migrants. Coming here to work. Mainly young. Haven't built up the wealth to get much from non-dom regime
voxeu.org/article/immigr…

These top people are not mainly ones coming here to invest. They come here to work and earn. And on ave. pay slightly more tax than someone with same income who is UK born

Ultimately if you want to encourage these people to come, 🥇policy number 1 has to be expanding visa availability.

Clearly lots of other issues in migration policy, that go beyond economics, but if claim is we want them to come here, have to start by making that poss.

3⃣ If a government were to abolish the regime, we have showed there would be very little emigration as a result. People would have to respond a lot more than they ever have before, to find something different
warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/econom…

And btw, if you want some corrob, @HMRCgovuk official figures say that the few who left when regime was prev tightened were the ones paying little tax anyway. So would be interested to hear the @hmtreasury challenge to that
web.archive.org/web/2019101306…

Then a couple of thoughts beyond the specific things from the interview

1⃣ I feel obliged to remind you all that ND regime is not now, and has never been, about attracting migrants. Remittance basis (inc tax benefit to NDs) was a tax *deferral* scheme from colonial times, til the cotton and sugar came onshore🏝️ warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/econom…

2⃣ Why does @hmtreasury not publish its analysis more regularly? (@instituteforgov/ @gemmatetlow/ @tompope0 any thoughts? Or @NAOorguk?)

How can anyone hold any government (either party) to account, if they can bring out statements based on unpublished analysis.

Means we can neither check the analysis, nor check the interpretation being put on that analysis

As am aside, wd *love* to see the analysis on this one. Understanding any HMT method for impact on UK ecy wd help w/a paper I'm writing

Am pretty skeptical they've done any analysis, if haven't got a fig for what ND abolition raises. Latter is input to former in our approach.

In fact this whole thing is so bloody frustrating, having to debunk 🧟zombie🧟 arguments for the regime, that I've just posted a quick explainer on the regime, including the case for reform
arunadvani.com/papers/AdvaniB…

Just to add to all this, now seen the @BBCNews @BBCwebsite bit on this.

Say it with me: THE NON-DOM REGIME DISCOURAGES FOREIGNERS FROM BRINGING MONEY ONSHORE. IF THEY DO, THEY WILL BE TAXED ON IT.

If you are a ND, you wd rather do your luxury shopping ANYWHERE but the UK

Also, although those of you who made it this far are the least likely to need it, here is a nice video about the regime, revenue from reform, and associated migration effects

https://twitter.com/Summers_AD/status/1574684770818314241

Tagging this thought to the end of the thread, so ppl can find more easily

https://twitter.com/arunadvaniecon/status/1593615478450176000