The Ukrainian General Staff reported shellings all along the front line plus in the north and the liberated Kherson.
Svatove
The AFU repulsed attacks around Novoselivs'ke and Stel'makhivka. It seems like there is a lot of activity in this area, I think if we will see a break through, it will be around here.
Siversk
Fierce fighting is going on in this area.
The AFU repulsed attacks around Verkhn'okam'yans'ke, Sprine and Bilohorivka. I think it's possible RuAF are focusing on this area to disturb eventual attacks on Kreminna from the south-w.
I think attacks in the Siversk area increased after some reports about AFU advancing south of Kreminna. Wargonzo have reported about these attacks a for the last few days.
They also wrote "Urgent: Wargonzo has not confirmed battled around kreminna" <- sus t.me/wargonzo/9319
Bakhmut
I think this area is mostly unchanged. Wargonzo report fighting within city limits, but also states map unchanged. I'd say it's the usual bullshit to promote wagner.
Donetsk
This is one of the hot spots of the active frontline, RuAFs goal is to encircle Avdiivka, the strategy is to shoot enough artillery at it to level it to the ground. Sooner or later even concrete breaks. But I don't see Avdiivka being occupied in the near future.
The AFU repulsed attacks around Opytne, Pervomaiske, Vodyane and Novomykhailivka. Pavlivka seems to have calmed down, I believe RuAF "control" the south part of the town.
Influencing operation by the AFU to make the Russians want to relocate from southern Pavlivka. t.me/DeepStateUA/14…
There are no significant happenings on the remaining parts of the front line.
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I keep forgetting the weather. It looks like it will stay mostly above freezing for the next week.
The reason the confidence is low, is a lack of data. They simply dont have enough information to know yet. Desplite that, the US President proclaims complete destruction, an assesment likely based more on his whishes than any intelligence.
Furthermore, they are trying to supress any discussion about this and might actually prevent the DIA to do their job properly, they know a negative report will not be precieved well by the White House.
Hegseth also tells a story which does not align with reality. We have all seen the pictures. There isnt a mountain of rubble. Hegseth says he have seen it all, and i wonder if it was during his time as prison guard or if it was during his time as a instructor?
I have seen speculations about some of the HEU and centrifuges being moved to the new underground facilities (UGF) south west of Natanz main compound. I do not belive this is the case, I think the tunnel complex to the SW of the main facility is unfinished. Here is why
The main compound is secured by at least five layers of fencing and walls, with three checkpoints required to enter the facility.
Compare this to the new UGF complex to the SW.
Only two tunnels have extra fencing, the wall and fencing around it is incomplete. There are clear sings of construction work going in near the tunnel entrances.
A lot of people are asking what we see in this image.
The two orange circles show where the impacts were, 3 holes at each circle making it 6 in total. There is no other visible damage.
Image from @michaelh992
Since last fall, Russia have increased their effort to build shelters for aircrafts. I have identified 14 localtion where they have build or are building shelters.
Kirovske
45.1709, 35.1761
10 U shaped walls, no roof.
Engels AirBase
51.49953, 46.23520
Construction recently started, ground work for 10 shelters.