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Nov 18 • 4 tweets • 5 min read
What do these places have in common? More pics to follow, and the answer will be at the end of the thread. (1/x) ImageImageImageImage
More clues. (2/x) ImageImageImageImage
A few more clues. (3/x) ImageImageImageImage
Answer: Republican George Santos will soon represent Queens Village & Bellerose Manor (+ other Queens neighborhoods) after flipping #NY03. These hard-working, diverse areas are increasingly GOP-friendly. @Santos4Congress came within 2% of winning #NY03’s Biden +20 Queens slice! ImageImageImageImage

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More from @RRHElections

RRH Elections Profile picture
Nov 18
We are now barely 36 hours from the political highlight of the year.

The presentation of the 12th Annual RRH Turkey of the Year award.

Please join us for a trip down memory lane as we celebrate the first 11 winners of our award for memorable, embarrassing failure.
We christened this award in 2011, when we realized we needed some way to recognize all the joy Anthony Weiner had brought to us that year. From the first sext to the press conferences hijacked by Breitbart and Howard Stern, what a first winner! rrhelections.com/index.php/2011…
In 2012, Todd Akin legitimately shut down the GOP's chances of a Senate majority with his mind-bogglingly stupid comments about rape, which nudged Rick Perry and his three departments out of the way: rrhelections.com/index.php/2012…
Read 12 tweets
RRH Elections Profile picture
Nov 8
Quick Election Eve thread on the bane of every nerd's existence this time of year: MIRAGES.

A mirage happens when a state counts heavily R or D ballots particularly early or late in the process, giving one party the appearance of a big lead that disappears as votes are counted.
Ohio, for example, is a BLUE MIRAGE state. In 2020, Ohio counted heavily Dem early/mail ballots first, and Biden led the state deep into the evening. He lost by 8 after the heavily R election day votes were counted.
Pennsylvania is a RED MIRAGE state, although first results will be heavily Dem out of Philly. But the overwhelmingly Dem mail votes will be counted at the end, so don't get too excited over an evening GOP lead.
Read 13 tweets
RRH Elections Profile picture
Nov 8
On Election Eve, just want to give a shout to all the young analysts who have done such great work with detailed maps, previews, and forecasts this year--including, but hardly limited to @Elections_Daily, @SplitTicket_, @CNalysis. Awesome stuff, all. Looking forward to tomorrow!
For those who haven't read yet, here's final predictions from @Elections_Daily. @decunningham2, @JosephSzymanski, @krazgreinetz, @Jacob_Walters39 and the team have done amazing work all cycle, including building the great Election Shuffler tool. elections-daily.com/2022/11/07/ele…
The new kid on the block this cycle is @SplitTicket_ and their final preview is here. Great job by @HWLavelleMaps @lxeagle17 @Thorongil16 @politicsmaps split-ticket.org/2022/11/06/our…
Read 5 tweets
RRH Elections Profile picture
Nov 5
NEW RRH Polls of 3 districts:

#VA07
🔴 @yestoyesli (R) 47%
🔵 @RepSpanberger (D) 47%

#OR04
🔴 @alekskarlatos (R) 45%
🔵 @ValHoyle (D) 45%

#OH13
🔴 @madisongesiotto (R) 44%
🔵 @EmiliaSykesOH (D) 46%

rrhelections.com/?p=104100
In #VA07 we found Youngkin very popular (+17) and Biden not (-11). Spanberger leads with those who have already voted; Vega will be relying on strong Election Day turnout. Spanberger leads in Stafford County, Vega in Spotsylvania.
In #OR04, Biden is underwater (-9) despite carrying our sample 50-41 in 2020. Undecideds lean young, blue collar, and rural in this tied race. Hoyle does not have as large a lead in Lane County (Eugene) as one may expect.
Read 6 tweets
RRH Elections Profile picture
Oct 20
Just sitting here thinking about where Joe Pinion could be in the polls right now if he could have raised Amy McGrath kind of money for his long shot run against a Senate Majority Leader.
It will be interesting to see if Pinion can do better in 2020 run against a Senate Majority Leader than McGrath did in 2018. This poll indicates that he could. So far Pinion has raised $96 million less than Amy McGrath did.
As of the last campaign finance filing Joe Pinion (R) has raised $400,875 for his #NYSen campaign vs. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D).
Read 4 tweets
RRH Elections Profile picture
Oct 12
A week late, but let's do a thread on the Alabama VRA case and what it might mean for redistricting in 2024. The Supreme Court is expected to reinterpret the VRA--one way or another--next spring, and the Court's new guidelines will change the way states approach redistricting. 1/
Earlier this year, a lower court ordered Alabama to redraw its map (left), which has had one Black-majority district since 1992. Plaintiffs convinced the court that the VRA required Alabama to draw two Black-majority seats (right, for one example). 2/ ImageImage
SCOTUS has long had a 3-factor test (the "Gingles factors") to determine when a VRA district is required:

1. A compact district can be drawn that is at least 50%+1 of a min. group
2. The minority is politically cohesive
3. Whites bloc vote to defeat minorities' candidates

3/
Read 21 tweets

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