This presentation is presented by a new secret Russian unit from their very special forces.
If you know the name of this secret unit please let me know in the comments
Visit interactive map for more details and explanations:
Weather
Fairly warm weather in the south with not a lot of rain. In the north we are looking at temperatures mostly above 0 and rain for the next 5 days.
Siveske
The AFU repulsed an attack in the area of Bilohorivka. Wargonzo also report RU attacks in the area of Verkhn'okam'yans'ke and Spirne.
Bakhmut
Prigozhins propaganda moves continue in this area. I suspect we will see increased activity when the Russians receive new canon fodder in this area. The first batch of untrained mobniks seems to have been spent already.
The AFU repulsed attacks around Klishchiivka and Kurdyumivka.
This video show a RU attack in the Klishchiivka area.
Source t.me/operativnoZSU/…
Mayorsk
RU claimed control over this area a few days ago, GSUA reported a shelling there today, based on geolocated video and the shelling i find it likely RU does not have control of the small settlement, only the railway station area.
Donetsk
The AFU repulsed attacks around Vodyane, Pervomais'ke and Novomykhailivka. The Russians are making small gains here, a few thousand meters per month at a high cost.
Pavlivka
Things have calmed down in this area a bit. I believe the AFU have moved out of Pavlivka, but RuAF are unable to move in due to artillery fire.
This area is important for logistic reasons. The railroad indicated in green here in range of Ukrainian 155mm artillery.
The other railroad supply route to the southern front is over the Kerch bridge which is not able to operate at full capacity, and it's possibly just 1 smoking accident away from being disabled.
Without the railroad connections, RuAF must rely on supplying their troops (and Crimea) with trucks and boats. But for some strange reason, the confidence of the Black Sea Fleet is not great at the moment.
This might have to do with recent smoking accidents in Sevastopol and previous accidents in Berdyansk.
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🧵The situation in Vovchansk is interesting. The map shows geolocated positions the last 8 days h/t @UAControlMap. When the first rumors about an encirclement at the aggregate plant, I thought it was BS. But it appears there is some truth to it, supposedly 83rd VDV.
The extent of isolation and the amount of people is unclear. Once interesting thing is the Russians committed one of their best units, 2nd Special Purpose Brigade to fight in the town. We have mostly seen poorly trained and equipped units without mechanized support in this fight
According to RU channels UA withdrew from the Filtration Plant in the east and Zenith in the south. This is good news, since avoiding an encirclement should be a priority at this point. It seems the coke plant and Kvartal high-rises are the current UA strongholds.
RU forces continue to try to fully encircle Avdiivka pushing mainly from 3 directions.
It remains to be seen if Ukraine are planning to withdraw from the east side of the city, but I think it's a pretty good idea to do so.
UA might chose to fight for the coke plant and Kvartal for a bit, but the gap for the gloc is only 3km and consists of 2 windbreaks.
I frequently get questions like:
"Are you ok?"
"What happened?"
"Why did you stop posting?"
So here we go⬇️
Yes I'm ok.
(This post is sponsored by Ramzan Fragglerov)
Time.
I have less time to follow Ukraine. I usually spent about 3-4 hours a day to just make my daily threads and going through all the information channels. To be able to keep the information reliable, I have to put in 6-10h per day. I dont have that kind of time anymore.
I lost my best friend in March, so I had go get a new one. He is getting a lot of my attention now.
🧵During the last week, Ukrainian forces have advanced 32km2 in the Robotyne direction. They are expanding their penetration of the Surovikin and have reached the outskirts of Verbove and Verbove.