🚨🇬🇧🇪🇺🍒🍒🍒🍒🍒🍒🍒🍒🇬🇧🇪🇺🚨Morning. We're moving back to Switzerland it seems. No doubt it'll all go like clockwork. If you want good primer/backgrounder this from @SarahMOverton via @UmKandEU is excellent.
This all stems from this michievous @cazjwheeler story in Sunday Times. Sourcing unclear but obviously it's an antidote to some of the dafter "Brexit isnt making us poorer", stuff that senior ministers are cornered into all the time these days. /2
It attempts to address the "no cakeism" reproach from the EU and a typically Brexiter belief (still!!) that we're too big for the EU to say no. But the "size and proxmity" of the UK to the EU is EXACTLY the reason EU says "no🍒-picking". Hard to believe that penny not dropped./3
Of course all this gets Brexiters and their new high-priest @DavidGHFrost in a tizzy, because their "no alignment" Canada-dry trade deal (the one everyone can see is making us poorer) must be defended at all costs. Obvs. No alignment with EU law at any costs.🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️/4
This of course awakes the ERG Brexiter beast which is supposed to have been somewhat chastened/tranquilised by the #KamiKwasi budget fiasco, and is probably about to be asked eat a large s***-sandwich to do a deal on the NI Protocol that will require UK cave-in on ECJ question/5
FWIW FT premium subscribers can read my latest Britain after #Brexit newsletter on this here...coz when the sarnie served no doubt @BorisJohnson will be in the wings muttering sellout...which would be some cheek, of course. But he has those. /6
It's Sunday, so I'll be brief so I can go scramble my eggs. In short, unless you join the Single Market, then macro, the upside of side-deals to repair damage of @BorisJohnson@DavidGHFrost#Brexit is minimal. Here's Barnier's staircase as a refresher! Round and round we go. ENDS
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NEW: Brussels issues UK list of “good faith” tests to fully implement EU-UK #Brexit divorce deal if it wants deeper relationship — not a bust up, but a clear reminder this won’t be easy. My and my esteemed Brussels colleague @AndyBounds via @ft /1
The gripes are about fully implementing Windsor Framework — the deal that removed appearance of Irish Sea border — but still needs vet checks, parcel data, pet microchip checks, accurate certification of agrifoods. Which EU says isn’t fully happening. /2
Also some concerns still about treatment of EU citizens under the post Brexit settled
status scheme.
The UK Government says it’s fully committed to getting all this fixed. What’s interstate is EU Commission to make the point it needs doing — at first meeting. /3
A quick (I promise) thread on @RachelReevesMP promises to boost EU-UK trade by aligning on regs (eg chemicals), doing a veterinary deal (no SPS checks) and boosting services via 'mutual recognition of professional qualifications' - taking each in order /1
First alignment. Two points: 1. via @joelreland of @UKandEU 'alignment doesn't get you access'.
See his new report here, setting out why technical agreements to improve EU-UK trade will have 'minimal' impact on economy /2
@joelreland @UKandEU 2. Not ALL industry want full-fat unilateral alignment. Even the food industry, you hear different voices (what about x, y, z pesticide use to grow barley/beets etc) OR in chemicals, see Chemical Industries Association @See_Chem_Bus to me here🚨🚨/3
NEW: Gove’s top-down plan to build 150,000 houses in Cambridge by 2040 declared “nonsensical” by local council leaders because they don’t have water supply to build existing plan for 50,000 by that date! 🤯 But Gove keeps giving interviews promising it/1
“The 150,000 homes would appear to just be nonsensical, if I’m honest, because the infrastructure just isn’t there,” Mike Davey, @mikelode1 Labour leader of Cambridge City Council /2
@mikelode1 “We are a pro-growth council, but we’ve run out of water. So that leaves us with a lot of questions about how this can be delivered. Gove has to solve the water problem and the energy problem or it can’t be done,” Bridget Smith, LD leader of South Cambridgeshire @cllrbridget /3
First the gaslighting: his deal is a ‘reverse’ trade deal…it erects barriers, it doesn’t remove them. It’s only “broadest deal ever” if UK started from zero relations, rather than working down from Single Market membership. As he well knows, but I wonder about the readers.😬 /2
Second the one bit of truth. To get closer to EU and fix bits of his rubbish deal, the UK will become a big rule taker. That will be hard. What Frost omits to say is that’s a pure function of the hideous position his #Brexit deal has put the UK in. And no seat at the table. /3
🚨🚨when ministers aren’t bashing UK universities they love to boast about them. Rightly. But unless something changes on funding there will be a lot less to boast about in 10 years time. /1
As Simon Marginson Higher Education prof at Oxford University explains the UK is in danger of getting back to the funding crisis levels that sparked need for tuition fees…/2
These charts by @amy_borrett explain the basic problem. Triple whammy of inflation, #Brexit and risky over reliance on international students to x-subsidise undergrad teaching (previously used to make up research grant shortfalls). /3
What he's getting at is that #Brexit is not, as is still widely supposed, a one-off event that companies adjust to.
It's a permanent friction that makes UK companies a risker bet for your supply chain than an EU company. And that matters for maufacturing/2
That's because 50 per cent of UK exports are from manufacturing, and of those that go to EU, around 50 per cent feed into EU supply chains -- so they make bits of things that criss-cross Europe to become whole things that then get exported to rest of world. /3