(5) China, last #ZeroCovid country, struggles. Economists speculate when SARS-CoV-2 will defeat it. I won't ridicule the short-term questions. Vital to system dynamicists and humanity is the inverse: what societies can learn fast enough to return to #清零?
(6) There is another layer here: the role of science and lack of international regulation in GOF research. These are challenging questions that most people choose to ignore - for understandable and valid reasons. I assume the people who matter are aware.
(7) With CRISPR/Cas9 and lack of oversight & accountability in virology labs, we face urgent global governance problems. Everyone has known for years; it's a common plot line in popular thrillers as you find in any small airport or train station bookstore. science.org/content/articl…
(8) Under hashtags like #ZeroCovid#清零 (#5), you find a trashfire of disinformation, and some high-quality content. People untrained to counter "flooding the zone" tactics will be helpless. This syndemic extends into the information sphere.
Other smart people use similar terms like polycrisis (@doctorow@brittwray) - also fine. Syndemic is the medical term to unite climate, ecology, energy + information, and public health.
En fin: Climate and governance scholars need to step up, we need you.
(9) Back to urgent epi questions. Given complement-mediated pathogenesis in SARS-CoV-2, here Ted's Japanese haplogroups D & E hypothesis (why?). Japan is not fine. Note the paleo climate links. - All above my nonexistent pay class. nature.com/articles/jhg20…
(10) Without data, no epidemiology. As free PCR tests were cut back, LongSARS (='LongCovid') isn't even tracked, and international surveillance remains poor, no one knows what's going on.
The first syndemic lesson is that we face a political, no epidemiological, problem. @rki_de
@rki_de (11) Throughout the pandemic, Japan had about a two-week lag from peak cases to peak deaths. Whatever happened - the pattern broke ("decoupling"), & deaths just keeps going up. (See @T_Brautigan on this)
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SARS-CoV-2 reminder: The more immune compromised the population, the less symptoms, the ‘milder’ it appears, the more severe it really is (=Long Covid, long term damage). That’s what even most scientists seem not to get
Thanks for vivid discussion everyone. It really is a fundamentally important point. Since I deleted most references for lack of structure (and frankly, just being fed up repeating the same points for 3 to 4 years), I'll look for new references that must have been published by now
1. "Bamboo is our best chance to slow climate breakdown: it sustains societies, can protect soil and store carbon for 100 years in food, construction, bio-concrete and plastic." - Let’s test this. As our very German neighbors renew their English Gardens, we start growing bamboo👇
2. Three months ago I started on bamboo: no one else in Europe seemed to have systematically analyzed or even considered its global climate mitigation potential when used as agricultural crop rather than natural forests, which do little climate mitigation.
3. A bamboo focus isn't for the coming years. We are at least a decade early. However, since getting started will take decades, now is a good time. In 10 years, atmospheric CO2 will exceed 450 ppm. That's enough to fundamentally transform the Earth system.
Hybrid immunity was invented in 2021 to sell the idea of SARS-CoV-2 infections as a good. There is no literature pre 2021. The idea to infect the global population with a SARS virus, including all 2 billion children aged 14 yo and younger, didn't exist. scholar.google.com/scholar?q=%22h…
You can repeat the same with "immune debt" or "immunity debt", the original flawed idea invented by French pediatrician Cohen in 2021, setting off the whole strain of argument. An incredibly effective PR campaign, less good science. scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&…
1. Europe imports all its bamboo. Plantations on fallow land are one good option to slow climate breakdown and create sustainable jobs. Bamboo is incredibly fast and, unlike timber, active management improves climate and ecological outcomes. Merits focus, baustoff-partner.de/d/moso-reiche-…
SARS-CoV-2 wasn't the last disruption to import based businesses. Our basic climate policy warning for seven years now. One of the reasons I'd encourage everyone to look into starting to grow Moso bamboo (phyllostachys edulis) or other suitable species in Southern Europe as well.
3. Terrestrial mammals and C4 grasses evolved and adapted below a threshold of 550 ppm. Earth will cross it within the lifetime of kids born today. - Bamboo is our most efficient C3 plant. Cenozoic CO2 proxy (CENCO2PIP) Consortium☝️ science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
You need a scale for the collapse of 'doomsday' glacier Thwaites. Compare the past two years: iceberg B22a broke off the glacier in 2002 and gained legs in 2023, freeing Thwaites to flow into the sea over the coming years: here it is today—that's 3,000 km2 worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-2442135.48…
3600 square kilometers, for the mathematicians here
The real problem: you cannot analyze SARS-CoV-2 OR compare it to HIV-1 without accounting for reinfections, current policy worldwide because no one bothers to plan for stopping them, ie #ZeroCovid, just as we have #ZeroHIV policy. Absurd.