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Thomas C. Theiner

@noclador

Nov 25

Reasons the winter months will kill 100,000 russian soldiers:

1) lack of winter clothing for russian troops = death by hypothermia
2) garbage russian logistics = lack of warm food, tea, heating materiel, sleeping bags = death by hypothermia
3) no shelters and dugouts for
1/4

russian troops to hide from the elements = death by hypothermia
4) ground is frozen = you can't dig shelters anymore = russian troops have to sleep on the ground = death by hypothermia
5) russian troops can't make any fire. Fire = smoke, which attracts drones and artillery
2/4

6) frozen ground = artillery becomes more effective. In summer projectiles bury into the ground before detonating... now the ground is frozen solid = more shrapnel
7) frozen ground = can't dig a foxhole = death by artillery

putin knows it and is desperate to pause the war
3/4

Read 4 tweets

Thomas C. Theiner

@noclador

Nov 23

@nytimes

After I explained how the russian soldiers in #Makiivka died during a firefight initiated by one of them feigning surrender and opening fire, @nytimes writer @malachybrowne tried to dissect my analysis.
As it turns out, one of his observations makes it even more obvious
1/n

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1594727807422185473

https://twitter.com/malachybrowne/status/1594850625841422338

the Ukrainian troops had no other choice and did nothing wrong; and that the russian soldiers on the ground had no chance once their comrade initiated a firefight.

Here is Browne's tweet:

2/n

https://twitter.com/malachybrowne/status/1594850625841422338

I now believe Browne is correct and there were just four Ukrainians and not one (!) of them had a clear line of sight to the door where the russians emerged.

Left image: lines of sight with five Ukrainians
Right image: lines of sight with four Ukrainians
3/n

Read 10 tweets

Thomas C. Theiner

@noclador

Nov 21

@nytimes

Were the russians in Makiivka executed?

No. And I will explain all the facts in this thread 🧵:

Yesterday the @nytimes published an article about the dead russians in Makiivka... and didn't bother to ask a single military expert, officer, weapons expert, or Ukrainian.
1/n

Instead they went to an Assistant Adjunct Professor for Epidemiology at UC Berkeley, who is quoted: “It looks like most of them were shot in the head,” Dr. Rohini Haar, medical adviser at Physicians for Human Rights, said in an interview.

Wrong. And a military expert would
2/n

https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1591548624609374210

have told the NY Times that this is nonsense.

First: here are the videos of the before and after of the incident. Video 2 in the linked tweet is before and Video 3 is after.

3/n

https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1591548624609374210

Read 19 tweets

Thomas C. Theiner

@noclador

Nov 18

All the people calling what happened in Makiivka a "war crime" know fuck shit about surrender procedures.

Surrenders of enemy forces larger than one's own force are TRAINED and follow procedures. The Ukrainian troops followed the procedure and because of that they are alive.
1/7

If the enemy wants to surrender but outnumbers you, then you tell the enemy soldiers to move unarmed and with their hands up to a spot in front of one or two of your machine guns.

Make all the enemy troops lay down. Now if one of them changes his mind - he is in the machine
2/7

gunner's sight and can be neutralized easily. And the machine gunner's task is TO FIRE immediately if an enemy soldiers moves without being asked to do so.
Once all the enemy troops are on the ground, you call them one by one over to a spot BEHIND the machine gun. You never
3/7

Read 7 tweets

Thomas C. Theiner

@noclador

Nov 16

Here is a photo of Poland's RAT-31DL FADR radar at Łabunie.
This radar is 40 km from Przewodów, where the missiles exploded.
That radar is barely 10 years old and has a 11x7 m antenna. It is one of the best radars NATO has. And it feeds directly into the Polish Air Force's
1/4

Air Operations Centre in Pyry. The Poles see in real time EVERYTHING that flies towards their country from the East for 500 km.

Poland knows EXACTLY where those missiles came from.

AND Pyry feeds directly into NATO's Combined Air Operations Centre Uedem.

NATO knows EXACTLY
2/4

where those missiles came from.

And the US has a Patriot battery at Rzeszów, which also covers the area of the missiles impacts.

The US knows EXACTLY where those missiles came from.

And there was an AWACS plane in the air... in short: Poland and Ukraine know that if they
3/4

Read 4 tweets

Thomas C. Theiner

@noclador

Oct 31

The reasons Italy's Army never received all the funds to modernize its heavy equipment are:

1) an army doesn't need main battle tanks, tracked IFVs, long range air defense systems, self-propelled artillery, armored bridgelayers, etc. if its adversary are the Taliban.

1/n

2) Italy focused heavily on modernizing its Navy and Air Force equipment, which costs muuuuuuuch more than army equipment.

Two F-35 (or two Eurofighter) cost the same as the yearly salaries for an entire army brigade. Italy bought 96 Eurofighter and 90 F-35.

2/n

A modern frigate costs the same as raising and equipping a tank battalion with brand new Leopard 2A7V. Since the war on terror startet Italy bought/is buying 17 frigates (and 2 aircraft carriers, 4 destroyers, 8 submarines, 3 amphibious ships, etc. etc.)

3/n

Read 7 tweets

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