Thread by @mashabani

NEW: Having been subject to multiple Turkish ground incursions, is #Iraq on cusp of witnessing an Iranian ground offensive too?

Quds Force commander Qa'aani's recent visit to Baghdad has raised many speculations. @amwajmedia can confirm...

amwaj.media/article/inside…

.@AP report that Iran is threatening a ground offensive unless Iraqi authorities deal with exiled Iranian Kurdish opposition groups.

The Islamic Republic wants the groups "disarmed" and moved away from the border. Tehran accuses them of fueling the ongoing unrest in Iran.

The prospect of an Iranian ground incursion could be Iraqi Prime Minister @mohamedshia's first major foreign policy challenge since taking office last month.

The #Iran-backed Shiite Coordination Framework put him in power, and his response will show his priorities.

Informed sources have also indicated that real Iranian objective could be to press Baghdad & Erbil to implement understandings on border security. This comes amid reports of IRGC having issued a 10-day ultimatum for Iraqi authorities to take action.

Under pressure to respond to Iranian and Turkish airstrikes on Kurdistan region, the Iraqi National Security Council was on Nov. 23 convened by @mohamedshia. Of further note, Iraqi parliament on the same day gathered for a closed session to discuss Iranian and Turkish bombings.

The emerging outcome appears to be for #Iraq to strengthen presence on its side of the border, but many questions remain about the viability of such action, particularly given the impact on #Turkey's operations against PKK.

Iran can be expected to ramp up its ops against opposition groups across the border—particularly given ongoing protests it's facing at home. But whether a ground incursion is really in the cards remains to be seen.

Final point: While Turkey has bases inside #Iraq, Iran does not.