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| osint_east | Profile picture
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Nov 25 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
Hey @daxe , pointing out some likely inconsistencies in your recent article for Forbes.

In short: there is still no substantive evidence of a landing at Kinburn, as you state.

#OSINT

1/7
forbes.com/sites/davidaxe…
Rumors beginning Nov 11/12 are outcomes of channels (Russian/Ukrainian, official & non-official) essentially repeating, then refuting, similar claims. Some of those claims were repeated verbatim.

This thread tracks those claims in high-detail, and with all sources of claims.

2/
Second, you reference a Nov 22 statement by Vitaly Kim as confirmation.

However, he states "we have three settlements left" which implies they remain legally-occupied as part of Mykolaiv thus there is no proof of their release by the AFU).

s: t.me/mykolaivskaODA…

3/ Image
Third, you state visual confirmation of AFU troops:

"Two days after that, there was clear photographic evidence of Ukrainian troops on the spit."

Can you confirm source of this evidence?

Videos of claimed boat landings remain disputed or are under investigation.

4/
Last, the primary photo in the article is confirmed as showing damage IVO Pokrovs'ke, and is claimed as Russian positions.

Evidence of damage is confirmed, but not the nature of the positon.

5/
However, cross-strait shelling has taken place IVO Kinburn for months.

Thus, Nov 18 photo does not necessarily confirm AFU ground presence, past or present, and may demonstrate effect of shelling only.

6/
Generally speaking you left gaps in your reporting, and it's unclear if this the result of 1) unavailability of accurate sources, or 2) intentional vagueness resulting in sensationalizing the event.

Can you please clarify?

Thanks!

cc: @J_JHelin @EerikMatero

7/7

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More from @osint_east

| osint_east | Profile picture
Nov 25
‼️Misleading.

There is still no substantive evidence of ground operations on the Kinburn peninsula. Artillery Fires and/or RECON remain *possible.

The 'political source' Chuck references is Vitaly (Vitalii) Kim, Governor of Mykolaiv.

s: t.me/mykolaivskaODA…

1/4
In V. Kim's November 22 statement he states:

"we have three settlements left...so that we can legally exit the state of the warring region."

This means three settlements within *Mykolaiv Oblast* remain occupied, thus the Oblast remains considered as formally occupied.

2/
This implies that the settlements: Pokrovs'ke, Vasylivka, and Pokrovka are not under Ukrainian control. This further indicates that ground operations further east (as Chuck states) are unlikely.

The geolocation of damage on Pokrovs'ke is included.

3/
Read 5 tweets
| osint_east | Profile picture
Nov 24
"Possible AFU SOF Operations in Kinburn Area"

❌Determination: Staged Event

IVO Vil'noandriivka, #Zaporizhia Oblast

POV (multiple). 47.57'57.77 N; 35.8'5.23 E

@GeoConfirmed @Cen4infoRes

Video Source: @PStyle0ne1

1/5
Location A:

"Beach Withdrawal"

POV. 47.57'57.77 N; 35.8'5.23 E

video timestamp: 1:32 - 1:45

2/ Google Earth. 2022. osint_eastGoogle Earth. 2022. osint_east
Location B:

"Patrolling Wooded Area"

POV. 47.57'57.02 N; 35.8'9.47 E

video timestamp: 1:07 - 1:09

3/ Google Earth. 2022. osint_eastGoogle Earth. 2022. osint_east
Read 6 tweets
| osint_east | Profile picture
Nov 23
‼️Disinformation.

There is no report of Ukrainian MIA counts "up to 380,000" and the "leaked report" does not exist.

The account does not cite sources for either.

As of July 11, most recent Ukrainian MIA figures are estimated at 7,200, with 2,000 cited by AFU command.

1/5
That figure (2,000) cited by AFU Command is compared to call-center lists from the Commission for People Missing Under Special Circumstances which estimates 7,200 MIA based on contacts.

They are presumed POWs, or fatalities.

2/
pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/…

bbc.com/news/world-eur…
Open sources (Ukraine, Russian, Western) suggest that within estimates for total AFU casualties, potentially 15% are POW/MIA based on reporting factors.

Using those open source estimates (ts: Nov 7, credible) this suggests 5,900 - 6,400 POW/MIA.

s: t.me/volyamedia/464

3/
Read 7 tweets
| osint_east | Profile picture
Nov 17
@TheStudyofWar released its daily assessments:

11/15 & 11/16

Note: this is a combined two-day thread to account for the events regarding the errant missile strike in Przewodow, Poland.

1/6
🔽
11/15

"The Kremlin likely deliberately planned a massive missile strike campaign on Ukraine in anticipation of Zelensky’s speech at the G20 summit given that a multi-direction missile campaign requires significant military preparation."

2/
The coordinated & planned missile strike is similar to previous patterns of wide-scale attacks either in retribution (Kerch Strait Bridge), or for destruction of infrastructure—both civilian and military.

The specific quantity of remaining Russian PGMs is unknown.

3/
Read 6 tweets
| osint_east | Profile picture
Nov 17
‼️Misinformation

There is no concrete proof of a successful attack IVO #Dzhankoi

There are no damage reports, or visual evidence supporting claims of damage, available.

There is no evidence of weapons systems used, if used at all.

1/3
The video used was filmed in Timonovo, Belgorod, Russia on August 17/18.

Source of video and reference to location/time:

2/
rferl.org/a/russia-belgo…
Rus. source dispute claims of an attack, and of number/type of equipment destroyed.

They cite A. Shariy (Ukrainian) as source of claim. He has spread claims (later proven false) in past two weeks.

t.me/RVvoenkor/32015
t.me/RVvoenkor/32017

3/3
Read 5 tweets
| osint_east | Profile picture
Nov 17
@katiasemchuk delivers an impressive and complex story on the challenges of administering justice for forcibly-mobilized Ukrainians.

In war conditions the ability to maintain equal and just treatment under the law is extremely difficult.

1/4
⬇️
“We tried to communicate to [GP] Kostin about the problem that Ukr. citizens are facing horrible sentences under questionable investigation. But I have a feeling that the Prosecutor’s Office is avoiding this subject because it is a difficult matter."

2/
opendemocracy.net/en/odr/russia-…
One case she highlights is especially telling:

"According to the defense, Medvyed sided with the Russian Federation under duress, fearing for his life and health.

The prosecutor objected, saying there is no evidence that the defendant went to serve against his own will."

3/
Read 4 tweets

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