Thread by @kharisborloff

Waking up to the Taiwan election results and it’s quite a blowout.

Gonna note in this thread some lower-profile results that may be overlooked.

1. The KMT candidate in Tainan is doing better (~43.6%) than in Kaohsiung (~40%). Under generic conditions it should be opposite.

2. In Pingtung, #DPP candidate Chou Chun-mi is going to win but barely, with <50% of the vote. Currently 49-46.7%

Looks like the party’s factional splits there carried over into this election.

In 2018 the same KMT candidate lost 56-43%.

3. Taoyuan is a good bellwether for this year’s swing races. #KMT candidate Chang Shan-cheng is winning 52-40% in what looked like a tossup a couple months ago.

KMT vote share in Taipei, Keelung, Changhua, Yunlin also on upper end of what was forecast.

4. The #TPP win in Hsinchu by Kao Hung-an is rightly going to get most of the attention. But TPP candidates in Yilan & Taoyuan both won >5% of the vote in hotly contested races.

Suggests recent polls showing TPP partisans >5% are picking up something real.

5. Related: the TPP is currently winning ~4% of the city & county council vote. NPP way back at 1.6%. TPP is clearly the 3rd largest party in the party system now.

6. Again looking at city/county council vote shares:
KMT at 37.8%,
DPP at 33.3%.

Compare to party list vote in 2020, which was:
KMT: 33.4%
DPP: 34.0%

There’s a partisan shift toward KMT here but it’s not huge.

Instead, KMT exec cands better able to win over swing voters.

7. Hou You-yi in New Taipei had a very good night.

He’s winning >62% of the vote, better than the 57.2% he won in 2018.

Also better than Lu Shiow-yen in Taichung at 59.4%.

Both cities are 1-2 points bluer than Taiwan’s electorate as a whole.

8. Turnout looks like it’s down several points.

In the last local elections in 2018, it was ~66%.

In 2020, it was ~75%.

Might not break 60% this time.

This is one reason not to extrapolate these results to 2024.

>2 million people who voted in 2020 sat this one out.

9. On Taipei mayor’s race: Chiang Wan-an came out at top end of plausible range.

When our Stanford delegation was in Taiwan in August, one of Taiwan’s top pollsters told us to expect winning margin in Taipei to be <20k votes.

Chiang ends up winning by >125k.

10. To me Chiang seemed like the ideal KMT candidate for Taipei this cycle.

He’s twice won tough LY races in a Taipei district. He’s young by KMT standards. & he’s KMT royalty, so can better bridge the deep-light blue divides in party.

11. Finally, I’d caution against drawing too many implications for 2024 central govt elections from these results.

The KMT clearly isn’t dead, but it’s also benefiting from at least 3 structural advantages in local races.

1st adv: most localities are “bluer” than average. I did a quick and dirty partisan vote index based on DPP pres vote share in last two elections.

In 14/22 localities Tsai’s vote share was <national avg, in 7 >avg, in 1 (Changhua) it was even.

So KMT has easier task.