#Thoughts
Since the beginning of the war there were only 6 cities π·πΊ captured by force:
Volnovakha, Popasna, Izum, Mariupol, Lyman, Severodonetsk.
All the cities were captured with overwhelmed advantage in gears.
There were no major gains since June.
π·πΊ has lost ~50k personal since Severodonetsk, 30k came in last 2 months.
All the recent activities were handled purely by the infantry.
It looks like most of gears were replaced by the infantry. There might be different reasons for that, but π·πΊ is no longer losing stuff.
We are observing first evidences of WWII to WWI transition, where copters are used instead of artillery and more WWII barrels appears on the battlefield.
Missiles is the only weapon πΊπ¦ has no proper answer for and that is the only weapon π·πΊ heavily relies.
Another important thing is the absence of πΊπ¦ airstrikes. The same can be said about HIMARS strikes.
The answer for both - no viable targets.
π·πΊ has managed to distribute their stocks across the area and use distant bases to resupply
Long-range (120km+) missiles are crucial for πΊπ¦ on this stage of the war.
That will push π·πΊ supply depots further away from the front and further decrease of heavy gears usage.
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#TalkingPoint Holodomor
Was it a disaster - yes.
Was it intentional - 100%.
Was it nation specific - No.
Does it matter - No.
Genocide was a class based and πΊπ¦ were in the wrong one.
Demographic pyramid of 1939 census can show how deep was the cut.
Current war is a 4th heavy strike on Ukraine population since 1900
Ukraine went through
- WWI and Red Terror
- Holodomor
- WWII
- Russian invasion
Each will leave a deep marks in the generations.
Census of 1959 shows that Ukraine has newer recover after the Holodomor.
It was not a single event that made it so horrible, it was a horrible timing that impossible to describe
Agrarian state with fertility rate of 6 went through 3 major population catastrophes to return as industrial state with fertility rate 2.2
Ukraine used Caesars on barges to shoot over the Snake island.
To shell Russian positions at Snake Island, for instance, the Ukrainians put Caesars, with a 40-kilometer range, on barges and towed them out 10 kilometers to hit the island, which was 50 kilometers away, astonishing the French
#TalkingPoint
π·πΊ missiles are targeting πΊπ¦ heavy industry.
π·πΊ wants to destroy the future of πΊπ¦, sending it into a stone age.
This will allow π·πΊ to get over πΊπ¦ even in case of loosing the war, swallowing nonexistent economy.
Targets for π·πΊ has changed, once again.
First they were targeting storage facilities and military targets
Then they have switched to power generation and distribution
Now they are going for strategic factories.
This is planned crime world all can observe in real time.
πΊπ¦ is one of the worlds developed countries. Developed that was mainly inherited from the collapsed empire and lost in time of independence with the help of Eastern neighbours.
Industry was waiting for the dawn, but may not meet one.
#Map
Tension round Avdiivka is rising once again.
π·πΊ has managed to take over Opytne and advancing towards Vodiane on the South.
π·πΊ have occupied the valley East of the city with no chance to leave it since April. With main goal to pass by the city from the North.
There are at least 2 independent π·πΊ groups at the South and East that were acting independently for last couple of months.
After the fall of Pisky direction of π·πΊ offense has turned north beyond M04.
πΊπ¦ defense at Opytne was erased so they were forsed to withdraw.
Vodiane would be the next target to open the road to Tonenke in the attempt to pocket Avdiivka from the south.
πΊπ¦ is capable to defend along the streams, to prevent that π·πΊ should be forced to expand towards the city.
What is remarkable about Nova Kakhovka - it's 40 km away from the point where Novooleksiivka can be reached with HIMARS.
That allows to control both exits from Crimea.
That can decimate π·πΊ supplies, encircling half of their army and they have no reserves to resist.
Why is that important right now.
π·πΊ has started to move ~40-50 BTG towards the East and place some troops do defend the river.
πΊπ¦ is smashing their defense and following the enemy cutting off their supply line, leaving the horde without a stock.
After the retreat from Kherson π·πΊ got into troubles, jammed between the BS and the Dnipro river, with a 150km long highly vulnerable border in the river delta.
πΊπ¦ has full fire control over the North Crimean Canal peninsula, with a flat terrain and channels along the coast.
π·πΊ is locked in the area with 2 major channels Crimean and Kahovka. None of the can be used as a defensive line, going North to South it creates more issues for the area supply. Making Kalanchak and Brylivka a local hubs.
π·πΊ is also digging tranches just on the edge of πΊπ¦ artillery reach, as was noticed in Novokam'yanka that is 20km away from the front.
Similar activities should be expected along the whole line.
Expects 3 lines of defense at 0, 5, 20km marks.