🧵With the successful re-election of Rep. Larry Bucshon (R) in #IN08, he has become the first congressman in Indiana's 8th Congressional District to win a 7th consecutive term -- since 1932. (1)
"The Bloody 8th" used to be a swing district. It gets mentioned a lot by congressional historians. The Evansville-based district, which stretches to Terre Haute, was called the Bloody 8th because of its swing status, and its fierce battles. #IN08#Midterms2022 (2)
The Indiana 8th was centered around #Evansville circa 1931. Southern Indiana Democrats were a strong force. They won the seat in 1932 and held it for 10 years. Thus began a decades-long battle for the Bloody Eighth, one that would draw the notice of Newt Gingrich. (3)
Even the congressman who held the seat longer than @DrLarryBucshon -- Winfield Denton (D) -- was defeated by a Republican during the Eisenhower tide of 1952. Denton won the seat back in 1954. He held it 16 years total. (4)
The other two contenders for the "Bloody 8th" record were recent. Frank McCloskey (D) held the seat for 12 years consecutively (kind of), 1983 to 1995. John Hostettler (R) did too, beating McCloskey, serving 1995 to 2007. (5)
The 1984 re-election sought by Frank McCloskey (D) changed House politics, some say. McCloskey lost, according to the Indiana secretary of state. The Republican, Richard McIntyre, was certified winner by 34 votes in #IN08. (6)
McCloskey challenged the results in the House, as is allowed. The Democrats controlled the House. But as they had to have hearings, they could not swear in anyone. McIntyre (R) was actually put on the House payroll, and was paid through May 1, 1985. (7)
A fuller recount showed McIntyre (R) up to a lead of 418 votes, according to CQ Press. Democrats, who voted to keep the seat vacant, kept looking into the race in the spring of '85. They declared McCloskey the winner by 4 votes. Republicans walked out. McCloskey was seated. (8)
TIME called the race one of the top 10 contested races of all time: "Newt Gingrich, a low-ranking congressman at the time, accused the Democratic leadership of blatant thuggery." (9)
Time continued: "Some cite the ill will arising from this exercise in partisanship on both sides as a contributing factor in the unyielding party-line system in Congress today." (10)
The Bloody 8th began to change with Indiana and with the 1994 election that swept in Hostettler (R). Southern Indiana slowly became more Republican. Hostettler surprised many as he held the seat for 12 years. (11)
The 8th was always subject to midterm waves, so in 2006, Hostettler (R) lost to Brad Ellsworth (D), the sheriff of Vanderburgh County (Evansville). But Ellsworth ran for Senate in 2010 (he lost) and @RepLarryBucshon (R) picked the seat up. (12)
Bucshon has held the seat since. The counties throughout Southwest Indiana have gone red, and have become very pro-Trump, including Daviess County, which set a record for Trump support in the general, at 79%. The Bloody 8th is now the Blood Red 8th. (13)
🧵Consumer confidence is dropping. But if you are wondering why the Democrats did better than expected, it's because consumer confidence had not dropped off a cliff. In October, it was higher than 102.5.
The Trump years, until COVID-19, regularly clocked in at above 120 and flirted with a Conference Board score of 140. COVID-19 saw a deep drop to just above a measurement of 80. (2)
Inflation, fuel prices and supply chain issues should have put the measurement below 100, but it didn't. So many voters went to the polls not convinced as consumers that they had been hurt. (3)
After conducting numerous investigations into Trump, including the one-sided kangaroo court #Jan6 Committee, the Democrats and media are demanding House Republicans and @GOPLeader not investigate Joe Biden. Now this is what @brithume calls chutzpah. (1)🧵
How many times did you hear from 2016 to 2020 that the House and Senate needed Trump's taxes, etc.? The Democrats were so proud of their efforts to investigate President Trump they still have a congressional page devoted to it:
The Oversight Committee says it looked into 1) security clearances, 2) the (phony) issue of emoluments, 3) the Trump Hotel D.C., 4) Ethics and Transparency, 5) Michael Flynn (?), 6) Immigration and Border Issues, 7) National Security and 8) Voter Rights. (3)
🧵The Security State types are out in force trying to convince us that @elonmusk's ownership of Twitter is a threat to national security, because some Russians, somewhere, may log on. This is a silly argument. (1)
First, the "fire in a crowded theater" is not the case law of the federal judiciary. The metaphor was used to justify a 1919 ban on criticizing the draft, which SCOTUS sadly upheld -- for a time.
The solution is to kick the person out, not involve the feds. (2)
Today, @elonmusk has made clear he will ban bad actors and Russian spammers. But should he ban any or all honest criticism of the war in Ukraine? No. Absolutely not. What the CIA wants is not what all Americans want. (3)
THREAD. Ron Klain @WHCOS tells some remarkable lies. On @Lawrence (a gullible guy) Monday night, Klain said "no president ... since John F. Kennedy ... (has held on to) Senate seats and potentially even (went) up one Senate seat." This is untrue; @JonKarl also said this. (1)
The best MIDTERM performance on the Senate side by a party holding the White House since 1960 was:
1) 1962. Kennedy. Dems pick up 4 seats despite midterm. 2) 2002. Bush. Despite recession, GOP picks up 2 seats and control of Senate.
2a) Tied for second place is Trump's 2018 midterm. The @NRSC knocked off four Democratic Senate incumbents. The Dems knocked off 2 Republican senators. In the end, the GOP Senate majority *gained* 2 seats in an otherwise terrible midterm. (3)
🧵If @GOPLeader Kevin McCarthy and House @GOP win 218 seats soon, it will be a remarkable comeback for him. In 2015, he was in line for the speakership when John Boehner (R-Ohio) decided to retire immediately. (1)
It was early October 2015, and Boehner said he wanted to leave after taking the gavel in January 2011. The conservatives objected to McCarthy for the next few weeks right up to the closed-door meeting in the Capitol, CNN reported. (2)
There were a number of objections, but after McCarthy appeared to diss the Benghazi committee, he could not get to 218 votes on the floor. Conservatives said they might support Dan Webster (R-Fla.), who just had a problem fending off Laura Loomer in the FL GOP primary. (3)
Not sure who GOP consultant @TheThomasGuide is -- besides the man who just started a Ron DeSantis Super PAC -- but talking to big liberal media about how stupid Republicans are is not the DeSantis way.
In October, John Thomas dismissed the DeSantis use of state funds to move illegal migrants to Martha's Vineyard as "self-interest." He said "Republicans win on pocketbook issues with (voters), not busing migrants across the country."
In August, Thomas seemed to abandon his idea for a DeSantis super PAC after the Mar-A-Lago raid by the FBI. It rallied Republicans to Trump. "It's not gonna go well for DeSantis," Thomas said.
Man! With Super PAC friends like that. Who needs enemies? (3)