A good thread. But what do you make of the courageous protests in Brisbane, London & New York? Ideas travel in & out of China at unprecedented speed. Collective experiential learning is taking place, whether people belong to the system (体制内) or are alienated by it (体制外) /1
Within the system (体制内) there must be a lot of unhappy campers. While they are unlikely to rebel openly, establishment people as #SilentDissidents can throw a spanner in the works through foot dragging / superficial compliance etc /2
And the longer the Xi regime sticks to its inflexible and draconian Zero Covid policy, the more it will alienate people. This could push them to turn their backs to the system and join the anti-establishment (体制外). This has happened before, think of Zhao Ziyang in 1989 /3
Given China’s highly corporatist political economy changes in society have an effect on the party-state. Migdal et al once described this as “state-in-society”. Behind the scenes there will now be attempts of negotiation / persuasion, from both sides. This is not over yet /End

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More from @AMFChina

Nov 30
In 2002 I once met Jiang Zemin in the Kempinski hotel. Back than I was an intern at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). We were hosting him for his speech in Berlin /1 Image
I don’t remember the details of his speech. What I found more interesting was the behaviour of his entourage. They were very peculiar about the big meeting room where Jiang Zemin would later give his speech. Officials made specific demands about the required room temperature /2
Given that we were expecting a lot of guests this demand struck me as odd. How was it possible to guarantee a steady temperature in a large room? Before Jiang took the stage he was advised by his assistants to take some of his clothes off. People were very deferential to him /3
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Nov 25
[SCOOP] Der Spiegel reveals growing tensions between Chancellory & Foreign Office over the future direction of Germany’s 🇨🇳 policy. Experts critique the draft strategy as too timid. With quotes from Alicia Hennig (TU Dresden) and yours truly. A short 🧵 /1 spiegel.de/politik/deutsc…
Der Spiegel had previously reported about the leaked China strategy. #Baerbock's Auswärtiges Amt is leading on this. Last week China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to Germany's draft strategy with a characteristic 'wolf warrior' hissy fit /2
The report sheds light on the high stakes in the debate about Germany's draft China strategy. Who will shape the contours of the final version? The Chancellory or Germany's Foreign Office? What follows is a short summary of the report with my own translation of key points /3
Read 15 tweets
Nov 10
Eight German industrialists have published a highly problematic op-ed in the FAZ. They advocate greater technological leadership, reduced dependencies and a continuation of dialogue with China. A short 🧵 about the continued love affair of German big corporations with China /1
The eight German industrialists represent BASF SE, Siemens AG, Merck, Robert Bosch GmbH, Trumpf SE + Co. KG, Heraeus Gruppe, Schaeffler AG and Hamburger Hafen und Logistik AG. Three of the authors accompanied Scholz on his trip to China /2 manager-magazin.de/politik/deutsc…
The authors argue that German China engagement was a success story. The emphasis is on the 'great potential of the Chinese market'. They omit that since 2012 "exports to China can no longer be plausibly seen as a current 'driver' of growth" (Adam Tooze) /3 adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-16…
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Nov 7
"The fact that a neo-Stalinist is leading China should worry us all." rusi.org/explore-our-re…
Professor Xu Zhangrun has described the Xi regime as follows: “(We) have an evolving form of military tyranny that is underpinned by an ideology that I call “Legalistic-Fascist-Stalinism” [Fa-Ri-Si, 法日斯] …” /1 chinafile.com/reporting-opin…
“ … one that is cobbled together from strains of traditional harsh Chinese Legalist thought [Fa (法); that is, 中式法家思想] wedded to an admix of the Leninist-Stalinist interpretation of Marxism [Si (斯); 斯大林主义] … /2
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Nov 7
Spot on @RadioFreeTom. In 2011 Ann Marie Murphy and I tried to bridge the gap between the foreign policy community and academia by highlighting the role of #pracademics (someone who is both an academic and an active practitioner in their subject area) /1 nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/OutputFile/101…
Combining theory and practice is one way to generate knowledge and understanding. I wrote my PhD thesis as an independent academic and practitioner employed by 🇩🇪 (BMZ, GTZ, CIM) and 🇨🇳 (CANGO) development agencies. But there are also real tensions between science & politics /2
In most cases, academics do not start out as #pracademics, but gradually get more involved in policy-relevant work. Murphy and I described the spectrum from more theoretical and analytical work on the one hand to more practical and applied policy entrepreneurship on the other /3
Read 8 tweets
Nov 2
"Chinese intellectuals, dissidents and celebrities from all over the world, 186 in number, have signed an open letter to Olaf Scholz. In it, they ask the chancellor to cancel his trip to Beijing planned for Thursday." /1 table.media/china/en/opini…
"China under President Xi Jinping has developed into a Nazi-style dictatorship, they say. In addition to dozens of exiles, many Chinese from the People’s Republic also support the initiative by name." /2
"Regardless of the risk of potential government repression, they wish to take up their social responsibility, the authors stated. China.Table publishes the letter exclusively." /3 table.media/china/en/opini…
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