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Alastair Thompson Profile picture
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Nov 30 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
The crisis in #Afar Ethiopia is getting much needed intl. attention which is great. But the cause is poorly understood.

#Afar has been repeatedly invaded by TPLF forces over the last 19 months, and they continue to occupy parts of Zone 2 Afar - recently killing three young Afar.
The Pretoria Peace Agreement has not been implemented in Northern Afar and civilians in major towns have not been able to return to their homes.

Aid flows have resumed on the main aid route to Mekelle, but Afar pastoralists are not receiving aid.
Contraband diverted aid is flowing back over the border into Afar for which extortionate prices are being charged. And at the same time occupying TPLF forces continue to raid pastoral communities stealing and killing livestock.
These threads from a couple of days ago contain some of the information provided by Afar speakers including some regional Govt. Officials in a recent space hosted by @1juxa to shed light on the crisis. The situation has worsened markedly since the @UNOCHA report from Nov 1st.
The space was recorded.

It is in a combination of Afar, Amharic and English. One speaker said Afar believe they remain under attack by TPLF forces because the TPLF bares an outstanding grudge against them for repelling their invasion in early 2022.
I am concerned giving the ongoing TPLF military operations reported in this area - and similar recent reports from Maychew about ongoing provocations - that TPLF may escalate & and once again close the Mekelle humanitarian corridor as they did around this time in 2021.
Such an action could then be advanced as a pretext to not implement the disarmament and démobilisation parts of the Pretoria and Nairobi Peace agreements signed earlier this month.

TPLF makes a habit of repeating its successful hybrid warfare disinformation+violence operations.
If this ceasefire and cessation of hostilities is to succeed, international actors in the AU, US, UN & Europe need to apply maximal diplomatic pressure on the TPLF leadership, in Mekelle and overseas to ensure compliance.
/ends

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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Dec 1
This new meme on the Ethiopian conflict is being used in a somewhat perverse manner in Western Media.

The new subtext is:

“We were not paying attention but now are.”
But the attention that is being paid remains ignorant and oblivious to the most important narrative.

Namely that #TigrayGenocide was always a fiction manufactured by TPLF and embraced by Western powers in a manner which made this war infinitely worse than it ought to have been.
As a result of this continued ignorance in Western media the TPLF’s false victimisation narrative is now flourishing again under this new equally flawed perspective on the conflict.
Read 8 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Nov 30
Currently listening to this.

Not sure what to make of it.

First impression: Very similar conspiratorial victimisation thinking as that in some quarters of Amhara region - and in Tigray.
Here is a link to a click to tweet campaign about Oromo Genocide.

The competing genocide narratives in Ethiopia are deeply destructive. Bringing these groups together in the National Dialogue will doubtless be difficult, but is clearly necessary.
The discussion is ending on a pleasantly sane manner, with a discussion on how to resolve the OLA conflict situation in Oromia peacefully.

Professor Egebissa points out that the escalation of the conflict with an objective of “annihilation” of the OLA is unlikely to work.
Read 6 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Nov 30
Important missing context from this narrow video analysis using OSINT techniques and it seems conducted outside of Ethiopia:

At the end of the 2nd war in Wollo in 2021 when this video was allegedly shot of there were many killings of Amhara civilians by OLA forces in Wollo.
The OLA guérilla campaign - by forces formally allied to Tigray’s TPLF rebels continued into 2022 - stepping up significantly and restricting travel on the A2 highway north out Addis.

This terror activity appeared to be part of a broader campaign with ext. intl. connections.
Context matters and narrow out of context reporting using OSINT techniques to repeat TPLF talking points is unfortunately the signature of most of @martinplaut’s work.

It is deeply unfortunate that a partisan propagandist continues to be coddled by the @bbcworldservice.
Read 10 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Nov 27
“We do not know our history” - Thabo Mbeki South African President 1999-2008 speech on #AfricaRising on the anniversary of the defeat of European colonial Ambition at Adwa by Ethiopia led by Emperor Menilik II.

Thabo Mbeki celebrates 120 years of ADWA
Also covers (at the end) the liberation of Haiti in a slave uprising at the end of the 18th C. And the 1990s end of Apartheid South Africa.

I reflect that in some ways the repercussions of the two African victories over great western powers are not yet fully resolved.
That said, hopefully lasting freedom and independence of Ethiopia has been once more - and this time finally - settled in this latest war against a Western Proxy attacks. It is long past time for relations between Africa and European Power to realign as a partnership of equals.
Read 6 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Nov 27
I will be attending this space. While peace has come to parts of Raya, it has not yet come to Afar. In this space we will get direct updates on the situation on the ground in Afar.

2 days ago three Afar were killed and one injured in a guerilla raid. twitter.com/i/spaces/1vOGw…
Five Kebele's in Megale and Ab'ala remain under occupation by TPLF forces. And much of the rest of Zone 2 Afar remains under threat of heavy weapon attacks from the mountains above -resulting in 100s of 1000s not being able to return to their homes.
The two tweets that follow are from Afar accounts related to this issue.
Read 4 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Nov 24
This article from August 27th 2022 (4 days after TPLF invaded North Wollo for a second time) - is peculiar, but what is even more peculiar is that TPLF’s cadres seem to have seized upon it as somehow relevant to the peace process now underway.

premiumtimesng.com/opinion/550973…
Having run out of fresh material to share the TPLF disinformation operation now appears to be draining the swamp looking for material to use to misrepresent the history of the conflict, and the three wars TPLF initiated, on Nov 3 2020, July 13 2021 & August 24 2022.
Sharing old out of date material at maximum volume has been a central part of the current strategic communications plan now for several weeks. The best explanation I can think of for this is that swarming out of date content may help them keep less attentive historic supporters.
Read 9 tweets

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