1/11: #wxtwitter has been all over the mid/late Dec wintry wx potential. So I'll just toss in a few tidbits as we approach this period.
➡️Nothing is guaranteed in wx. This should be obvious, but is worth sharing. Just b/c confidence is high for a favorable pattern to evolve...
➡️Nothing is guaranteed in wx. This should be obvious, but is worth sharing. Just b/c confidence is high for a favorable pattern to evolve...
2/11: ...it doesn't assure a massive snowstorm will bury you in 2' of snow.
➡️The likelihood of EC cyclogenesis is merely increased in large part due to the high sigma, retrograding -NAO block.
➡️The -NAO isn't a great mechanism to usher in bitter low level cold, but it...
➡️The likelihood of EC cyclogenesis is merely increased in large part due to the high sigma, retrograding -NAO block.
➡️The -NAO isn't a great mechanism to usher in bitter low level cold, but it...
3/11: ...helps to attenuate high temp anomalies by way of modulating the waveguide. You don't need a deeply negative -EPO to support EC snow. You merely need temps to just be cold *enough*. As storms "cut" during the preloading phase, the cold pool will grow to our north in QC. 
4/11:
➡️Winter wx enthusiasts tend to look for the holy grail teleconnection alignment: -NAO/-EPO/-AO/+PNA. But many KU patterns don't tend to fit those seemingly binary line charts. Maps provide a better view. This upcoming pattern is no different. If we're to analyze what is
➡️Winter wx enthusiasts tend to look for the holy grail teleconnection alignment: -NAO/-EPO/-AO/+PNA. But many KU patterns don't tend to fit those seemingly binary line charts. Maps provide a better view. This upcoming pattern is no different. If we're to analyze what is
5/11: arguably the best analog for this upcoming pattern, Dec 2010, we can see the back half of the month averaged a -PNA. While a +PNA is generally a welcome sight to NE snowlovers, too strong a WC ridge can lead to a suppressed solution in concert w/a strong, west based -NAO.
6/11:
➡️Does that mean -PNA=GOOD; +PNA=BAD? No, it's not binary. An ephemeral spike out west could be "good", but as usual, it's only one piece of the puzzle. Where does the block settle in/how strong? Is the TPV still wrapped up, or is it elongated as disturbances ride the...
➡️Does that mean -PNA=GOOD; +PNA=BAD? No, it's not binary. An ephemeral spike out west could be "good", but as usual, it's only one piece of the puzzle. Where does the block settle in/how strong? Is the TPV still wrapped up, or is it elongated as disturbances ride the...
7/11: ..polar jet into the CONUS? Is there a 50/50 LP in place? Those questions won't be answered until we're into the short-medium range. But it does tell us you don't need teleconnection "perfection" to deliver a significant winter storm, especially w/strong NATL blocking.
8/11:
➡️Beyond the block merely building/settling in, many wx enthusiasts look beyond that to when the block may break down. Historically these "Archaumbault" type events have been known to produce the classic storms, often associated w/a PNA spike. I totally agree. But don't...
➡️Beyond the block merely building/settling in, many wx enthusiasts look beyond that to when the block may break down. Historically these "Archaumbault" type events have been known to produce the classic storms, often associated w/a PNA spike. I totally agree. But don't...
9/11:
.. totally sleep on the potential of a small to significant event or two to occur as the pattern flip is initially occurring & not just when it's breaking down. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outre…
.. totally sleep on the potential of a small to significant event or two to occur as the pattern flip is initially occurring & not just when it's breaking down. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outre…
10/11:
➡️It's way out in time, are there ways for this period to fail to materialize? Yes! If things take a turn, I'll point them out. I strive to be objective, but I made this thread to shed light on the recent buzz. The signals/analogs have been eye opening, hence the interest.
➡️It's way out in time, are there ways for this period to fail to materialize? Yes! If things take a turn, I'll point them out. I strive to be objective, but I made this thread to shed light on the recent buzz. The signals/analogs have been eye opening, hence the interest.
11/11: In summation:
➡️Favorable winter wx period incoming for NE/Mid-Atlantic by Mid-Dec.
➡️Favorable≠Guaranteed.
➡️12/2010 a decent analog.
➡️-PNA may not be worst thing, but remains to be seen.
➡️Several failure modes.
➡️Potential events not limited to when block breaks down.
➡️Favorable winter wx period incoming for NE/Mid-Atlantic by Mid-Dec.
➡️Favorable≠Guaranteed.
➡️12/2010 a decent analog.
➡️-PNA may not be worst thing, but remains to be seen.
➡️Several failure modes.
➡️Potential events not limited to when block breaks down.
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