Thread by @BetseyStevenson

A late, but hopefully thoughtful thread on the jobs report. I do not see the labor market as quite as tight as a first read of this report would suggest. [1/12]
#UMPovertySolutions, @fordschool, #JobsReport

It’s clear that wages are on fire! And I agree with @jasonfurman that this is a very worrying aspect of this report. But let’s consider some others. [2/12]

@jasonfurman Job growth is largely being driven by two sectors: leisure and hospitality and health and education services. These two sectors suffered a disproportionate number of pandemic-driven layoffs and a very lackluster early-pandemic recovery throughout 2020 and much of 2021. [3/12]

Growth was slow in many high growth sectors and declined in two of them: transportation and warehousing and retailing trade. Both sectors remain above their pre-pandemic employment peaks and above their pre-pandemic trend growth. [4/12]

The slowdown in these sectors match the broader trend of a slowdown in sectors that experienced above trend job growth coming out of the pandemic. Are you thinking tech sector layoffs? You shouldn't be, at least not yet. [5/12]

Surprisingly information jobs continued to grow sharply, despite news of their demise. [6/12] poverty.umich.edu/2022/12/02/nov…

The reported layoffs in the tech sector may not yet be in the BLS data yet (which reflects the second week of Nov) or they may simply be small compared to the broader expansion of jobs in information services. Either way, this sector is way ahead of its skis on hiring. [7/12]

But wage growth in information services suggests that the market is still on fire. This might worry the Fed, but those recently laid off in the sector should take comfort. [8/12]

Women gained 62% of the jobs added in November, a gender difference that was primarily driven by the fact that strong job growth occurred in education and health services, a heavily female-dominated sector. [9/12] poverty.umich.edu/2022/12/02/nov…

Women added jobs across a number of sectors at a rate that was faster than that of men and in many cases outpaced their overall share of jobs. For example women took nearly all the jobs added in manufacturing in November. [10/12] poverty.umich.edu/2022/12/02/nov…

If you dig into the reasons people are unemployed there is some worrying trends. The share of people who are job losers is rising, while the share who are job leavers or entrants to the labor market is falling. These are patterns that we tend to see in recessions. [11/12]

Taken together I think we should be a little more cautious in interpreting this report. The labor market is clearly strong, but it is not strengthening. And it is likely weakening, albeit slowly. Read more here poverty.umich.edu/2022/12/02/nov…
#UMPovertySolutions, @fordschool, #JobsReport