Former Member of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers & Chief Economist at Labor. Current academic economist at Michigan. Always an economist at home.
Aug 2 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
The number of people who think that (a) it's easy to get accurate data in a timely fashion and (b) if there are revisions it must be "mistakes" or "faking data" is really worrisome. Let me explain. 🧵
The jobs numbers for July reflect all the people on a companies payroll in the week that includes the 12th of the month. Companies need to send that information to the BLS. Many are delayed in sending it in, either because they are busy or because their pay period that includes that week goes late into the month (for example companies that pay employees monthly).
Oct 14, 2024 • 17 tweets • 3 min read
Today's Nobel Prize in economics is a reminder to Americans that the reason for our prosperity is our institutions. The prize recognized 3 scholars who have diligently shown that economic growth comes from "inclusive institutions..[that] create long-term benefits for everyone" 🧵
In contrast, extractive intuitions "provide short-term gains for the people in power."
The problem for the US is both sides of the political aisle argue that the other side is the one being extractive. This is wrong and it should not be a political debate, it's based in facts.
Aug 20, 2024 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Let's have a serious conversation about the phrase "unskilled labor".
Economists have used that phrase for as long as I've studied economics. At some point I became inured to it falsely thinking it's no judgment, just trying to classify workers. That's wrong. It's horrible. 🧵
First, it turns out that "unskilled" labor makes no sense. Often people have mad skills, they just aren't skills that are in a lot of demand. Or their skills are amazing, but they are plentiful relative to demand.
Aug 16, 2024 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
President Biden and Vice President Harris want the economy to be a bit easier to navigate. That means governments need to cut red tape and corporations need to eliminate practices designed to aggravate people into paying more because its too much effort to pay less. [1/x]
The idea that you have to fight and be an advocate for yourself with the cable company and the streaming service and your health insurance company and on and on and on is shaping our culture. [2/x]
Jun 8, 2023 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
It's hard to process the death of @WSpriggs, but the best way to start is by re-reading his open letter to economists. [1/x]
@WSpriggs Bill was ahead of his time and therefore spent his life educating the world about important truths about racism, oppression, and the role of government. I had been thinking a lot recently about how much of a burden that must have been for him. [2/x]
May 5, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
The challenge with understanding the labor market is that we didn't really know where it was going before the pandemic hit. [1/x]
Labor force participation was very blah in the early 2000s, declining for men and for women. (The 2001 tax cuts did not send people rushing into the labor force). [2/x]
Dec 2, 2022 • 12 tweets • 6 min read
A late, but hopefully thoughtful thread on the jobs report. I do not see the labor market as quite as tight as a first read of this report would suggest. [1/12] #UMPovertySolutions, @fordschool, #JobsReport
It’s clear that wages are on fire! And I agree with @jasonfurman that this is a very worrying aspect of this report. But let’s consider some others. [2/12]
Sep 13, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
As good as the last employment report was, this CPI report is terrible.
There will be lots of takes on how terrifying it is--inflation looks to be pretty entrenched at around 6%.
Here's my sliver of hope for why this might have been a particularly bad month [1/x]
Education services have had roughly flat pricing for the year, jumped up 0.5% on an unadjusted basis, 0.2% SA. Fees for education tend to jump this time of year and they jumped more than usual. The same thing was true for fees for lessons or instructions.
May 5, 2022 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
I have a small story to tell about abortion. When I was 16 I cleaned the house of a woman who seemed a million years old to me but was probably 70. Her two adult children lived in other states. I couldn't afford piano lessons and she couldn't afford a cleaner so we swapped. [1/x]
Cleaning her house came with a lot of lessons.
First, I was a terrible cleaner. She definitely educated me on that.
Second, we talked a lot about her life. And what she had learned. [2/x]
Jan 27, 2022 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
A bunch of people think that we got 6.9% economic growth in the fourth quarter by letting people die.
I don't think that we needed to choose between the economy and people in the fourth quarter of 2021. It's important to be clear about what are trade-offs are. A thread [1/x]
By the fourth quarter of 2021 we had vaccines available to everyone 12 and up and during that quarter we approved them for people 5-11.
We knew that masking in schools reduced the spread.
We understood the value of fresh air, being outside or improving indoor venilation. [2/x]
Dec 3, 2021 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
A little primer on why jobs data seems to be constantly revised up:
The BLS has 2 problems to solve. (1) Identify a representative sample of businesses to survey and get them to complete a survey on time. (2) Figure out what our normal seasonal patterns are. (1/x)
When the economy is in a transition (1) is hard. Are businesses not responding because they don't exist anymore or because they are busier than usual? In a downturn it is more likely to be the former, in an upturn the latter. (2/x)
Oct 8, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
We spent at least 5 years of the pre-pandemic boom wondering why wages weren't rising given the sustained demand for workers. Now, employment is no where near 2019 and wages are rising. Conclusion: tight labor market. But what makes this different from 2019's tight labor market?
Why can workers all of a sudden get a raise? Maybe there is a lot of poaching going on. Employers want to hire and the easiest thing to do is hire an already working person, but you have to give them a better offer. One thing to look at is the wage gains of people changing jobs.
Oct 8, 2021 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Is this a labor shortage? I don't think so. The end of UI was supposed to send millions back into the work force. It didn't happen. So what's going on?
Some people aren't working: but not because they are being paid to stay home.
People are still scared to work. Some teachers refused to go into classrooms when students weren't masked or colleagues weren't vaxxed.
Oct 8, 2021 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
It's a disappointing jobs report. 194K jobs added overall, with government job declines of 123K pulling down the 317K private sector jobs. The household survey was closer to market expectations showing 526K more people employed.
Let's start with teachers:
"Since February 2020, employment is down by 310,000 in local government education, by 194,000 in state government education, and by 172,000 in private education."
Oct 6, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Our government largely fails to represent the interests of children, particularly our youngest and most vulnerable children.
Children are not parent’s property. They are individual people who deserve representation in government.
Sep 10, 2021 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
Wow, there's a lot of tension over the vaccine mandate. Here's the thing: a mandate or a subsidy is the only way to get the socially optimal vaccination rate. Before you start in on people should be able to choose, let's think through these choices. [1/x]
When you get vaccinated you do two things: you protect yourself from severe illness and death and you protect others from catching covid. [2/x]
Apr 28, 2021 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
It's 2021 and the United States is one of the last countries in the world to guaranty paid family leave. The time has come [1/x]
The issue has been studied extensively and some key facts have been established: (1) kids do better when parents have access to paid family leave (2) parents are more attached to the labor force when they have access to paid leave (3) paid leave is something workers want [2/x]
Oct 29, 2020 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
Let's discuss GDP numbers. First, there's the tricky thing about percentage changes is that percentage changes on the way down are always smaller than on the way up because on the way up you have a smaller base. [1/x]
(For those who need the math. I had two cookies and my kid took one so my cookies shrunk by 50%. He gave me half back so my cookies increased by 50%. I still had 25% fewer cookies.) [2/x]
Oct 28, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
This take is wrong. First, universal childcare is a redistribution towards children and an investment in their future. I believe in government help for investing in education including early education. Does @MaxGhenis want UBI to replace K-12 education? [1/4]
Second, the problem with UBI is that it doesn't redistribution toward those who need more. Universal childcare redistributes toward families that can't afford a stay-at-home spouse. Stay at home spouses provide a lot of value to their families, making those families better off.
Aug 27, 2020 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
I'm not a White House ethics person, but here's a small story to show how governing & campaigning is supposed to be separate. When I was a Member of CEA, I accompanied Obama to an event on working families. Participating in a round-table event w/ POTUS was exciting! [1/x]
I briefed him in the limo, we talked policy and research along the way. He had read the background material so I was on my toes answering detail questions. The event went well & then we returned to the plane & took a quick stop for a campaign event [2/x]
Aug 21, 2020 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
I am so tired of name-calling, hate, rudeness, self-serving lying, and divisiveness. Just exhausted of it. Deeply exhausted, down to my bones. Aren't you?
For many many years, I have taught students that trust is a public good. We each contribute to a creating a trusting society. The trust you help build benefits me. Trust makes the economy work so much better. It makes it easier to trade with one another. And it makes us happier.
