A theory of fascism. Source: How To Stop Fascism (2021) 1/ It's the product of social and ideological disintegration, triggered by a fear of freedom ....
2/ Though fear of freedom is everywhere, it's particularly strong in groups with a material interest in Un freedom ... #HowtoStopFascism
3/ It's not just a capitalist defence mechanism - its function is to reverse historical progress. Today's fascism - primarily ethnonationalist - is far more explicitly anti-modern than before ...
4/ Co-creation was there in the 20th century movements but is far more salient now, because of networks: the movement becomes a reward structure ...
5/ There's no explicit fascist economic model; rather it must radicalise any existing form of capitalism toward war for Schmittian reasons ....
6/ Agent theory is facile: it's a product of decay and is the self defence organism of class society. When it fails it's logic is self-annihilation. More here ...amazon.co.uk/How-Stop-Fasci…
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Ten takeaways from @RUSI_org report on Ukraine war: 🧵1/ Putin planned the attack in July 2021 and set FSB to design it as an annexation... all claims that NATO suckered him into a war = false paulmasonnews.medium.com/90-days-of-atr…
2/ The atrocities were baked into the plan. They weren't the result of ill discipline - from killing Zelensky to filtrating the population and abolishing 🇺🇦 language the design was annexation/genocide...paulmasonnews.medium.com/90-days-of-atr…
3/ Putin achieved operational surprise with the attack on Kyiv - but surprised his own troops so badly they had no clue what to do when it went wrong (eg asking locals for directions who then called fire on them)...paulmasonnews.medium.com/90-days-of-atr…
If you're wondering why the "Swiss-style deal with EU" story has not been killed, here's the answer (from OBR's March EFO)... UK trade took a hit once Brexit transition ended... 1/ But it's not all the Brexit effect...
2/ ... it's the absence of a post-Brexit growth model. One of the worst things about Johnson was his failure to execute on any strategy ... and his strategy turned out to be fantasy island: emulating Clive of India...
3/ So you get massive disruption, paperwork, ill-will, skills shortages ... then in the post-Covid recovery UK doesn't make the goods that are surging (cars, semiconductors)... and deglobalisation makes that worse...
What would Labour do about fiscal austerity - legitimate question...it's clear that everyday economy , the green investment plan and industrial strategy are locked in as Labour policy... 1/ 🧵 none are achievable under Hunt's fiscal plans... paulmasonnews.medium.com/youve-never-ha…
2/ So there's no way Labour can stick with Hunt's plan for a deflationary recovery that looks like this. The £28bn/year borrow to invest programme is crucial to making this chart look different...paulmasonnews.medium.com/youve-never-ha…
3/ Labour's actual problem is not the absence of a strategy: mission oriented industrial strategy, decarbonising the electricity grid, massive skills investment and solving social care all fit together... paulmasonnews.medium.com/youve-never-ha…
Hidden in plain sight in Tory budget: Defence spending stasis...and incoherence. Real terms spending eroded by inflation, while we wait for an updated Integrated Review... 1/ Let's hope it's a root and branch revision of Johnson's hubristic Indo-Pacific Tilt...
2/ All three services going through a big, tech driven change - with significant risks due to planned "capability gaps" - eg ships with obsolescent missiles, AJAX programme in severe doubt. To be asked to "cut your cloth" in mid decade is self-defeating...
3/ Revising the IR in light of Russian threat is right. The one thing we can be certain of is that the threat won't diminish over the forecast period... and moving to systems-based defence thinking costs money...
The politics of Sunak/Hunt Autumn Statement 1/ They blinked on harsh fiscal austerity - because Conservatism is now stuck with a big state it doesn't want, can't explain, but cannot do without... but the doom loop still threatens...
2/ Hunt said "you can't borrow your way to growth"... and then borrowed his way to a shallower recession than predicted... electorally makes sense but look what happens after...
3/ Once (if) the inflation spike is over we get 24 months of deflation...OBR figures prove wages are not driving inflation - because as the next graph shows, families are seeing ten years wiped off their living standards...
In April British trade unions marched thru London demanding arms, aid and debt relief to Ukraine. We were vilified by Putin's British allies - but today after a huge sacrifice, and with the help of UK-donated weapons, the ZSU retook #Kherson . ✊🏼✊🏼✊🏼 So...1/ time to reflect ...
2/ On 22 April i watched 26 leaders of the European left begin a totally ill-advised campaign to stop the supply of Western arms to Ukraine - under the vacuous slogan of "peace": everyone on that platform should issue an apology to the people of #Kherson ...
3/ Today the EU flag was flown in #Kherson - but the Ukrainian trade unionists we spoke to in Kyiv told us EU liberalisation is being used to justify attacks on workers' rights ... so it's up to European social-democracy, greens and left to make sure that ends...