As of now turnout is 62.89% & it will reach 64.5% once postal ballots are added.
It should be noted that the turnout was nearly same in 2019 Lok Sabha polls & 4% less than 2017 Assembly polls.
South Gujarat (BJP bastion) has seen less fluctuation
in turnout than Saurashtra which went against BJP in 2017.
In South Gujarat except Varachha & couple of seats in Bharuch BJP successfully mobilised its voters in Surat, Navsari & Valsad. 2-4% turnout decline in urban seats will hard impact BJP’s wins.
It is Saurashtra which has seen massive decline in turnout especially Rajkot & Jamnagar as there is 7-10% less turnout in several urban seats due to less interest amongst voters as they believe it is one sided polls.
In fact BJP strongholds like Jamanagar South & Rajkot West
This seat is stronghold of BJP & it’s sitting MLA Rajendrasinh Chavda. BJP lost this seat only in 2012 when Chavda contested on Congress ticket & defeated Home
Minister Praful Patel. Chavda’s father was 4 terms BJP MLA from this constituency.
BJP+Chavda is sureshot recipe for winning. BJP should win this seat.
This seat will see contest between sitting Congress MLA Geniben Thakor & former BJP MLA Shankar Chaudhari Patel.
BJP lost this seat by 6000 votes in 2017 mainly due to NOTA (3700 votes) & independents. With anti-incumbency stepping in & considering popularity of Shankar Chaudhari BJP should reclaim this seat this time.