Thread by @HannaLiubakova

#Belarus The sudden visit of the Russian MoD Sergei Shoigu caused another round of threads about Russia's immense pressure on Lukashenka who refuses to obey. I’ll be boring and stick to facts because there is little evidence of such pressure. Instead, we see an opposite trend ⬇️

First, Putin and Lukashenka hold regular & quite friendly meetings. They are very important for Lukashenka to show his elites that he has Putin’s support. Putin doesn’t seem to refuse a chance to meet.

Second, Russia supports Belarus financially & by providing various benefits.

Recently, the Russian Duma approved the bill law allowing Belarus to postpone debt payments for $1.4 billion. Russia also issued a new $1.74 billion loan. Belarus has access to the Russian market, infrastructure and especially ports, which is crucial because of Western sanctions.

We don’t know yet the content of the protocol amending the regional security agreement. For Lukashenka, signing documents never meant any serious commitment: look at the Union Treaty. The use of Belarusian territory happened without any - even sudden and fast - signing of papers.

Of course, as was said, it could mean further military collaboration. But let's remember that Russian troops have been stationed in #Belarus for almost a year. The regime is helping Russia with tanks, ammunition & military vehicles, yet the Kremlin needs more and more equipment.

What are the signs of Lukashenka's disobedience? The Russian army used infrastructure, railways & airfields. The regime provided quartering, medical assistance, navigation support, fuel to the Russian army. Now we know about the training that the regime’s army offers to Russians.

I remember Makei's pro-Russia speech at #UNGA in September. The regime supports the Kremlin in every international organisation. Propaganda in #Belarus copycats and mirrors the Russian one. People in my country are served the same fakes about Ukraine as Russians. Disobedience?

Don't get me wrong: I don't see any logic and limits for Putin. When he threatens the world with nuclear weapons, who cares about Lukashenka. However, let's rely on reports: now we don't see Russia gathering a large amount of combat-ready troops in Belarus to attack #Ukraine.

It's true that constant drills and data verification of men in Belarus raise concerns. The MoD prepares amendments to the law on mobilization in Belarus. It's not clear what for.

What is clear is that Putin won't abandon plans to attack Kyiv. The easiest way is through Belarus.