Who wants math?
(On Election Day? Nooo!)
Of COURSE on election day we do math, or as they say in Georgia Republican circles: on Erection Day
We can now tabulate the Trump Effect
(Really, T Dawg? TELL US)
You gonna like this.. lets get out our pocket calculators & slide rules
(On Election Day? Nooo!)
Of COURSE on election day we do math, or as they say in Georgia Republican circles: on Erection Day
We can now tabulate the Trump Effect
(Really, T Dawg? TELL US)
You gonna like this.. lets get out our pocket calculators & slide rules
During 2022 Midterm Elections we had a few states where we can isolate the Trump Effect to the vote. Based on that math, we can calculate the universal Trump effect that actually matters now in ALL states, and ALL elections (if any candidates embrace Trump) ie going into 2024
We need an apples-to-apples comparison.
A Republican Senator candidate who was NOT the incumbent, AND campaigned with Trump
Running in State that ALSO had Governor election. And that Gov candidate did NOT campaign with Trump
We can CALCULATE the Delta, ie the Difference!
A Republican Senator candidate who was NOT the incumbent, AND campaigned with Trump
Running in State that ALSO had Governor election. And that Gov candidate did NOT campaign with Trump
We can CALCULATE the Delta, ie the Difference!
Only in 3 states: Ohio, Georgia & Connecticut both rules apply. These states were all pretty competitive, Ohio a red state DEMs thought they can win; Connecticut a blue state GOP believed they had a chance; & Georgia the most evenly split outcome (in Senate race)
Let's do math!
Let's do math!
Gov vs Sen races:
Ohio: 2.5M R, 1.5M D vs 2.1M R, 1.9M D
Georgia: 2.1M R, 1.8M D vs 1.9M R, 1.9M D
Connecticut: 546K R, 709K D vs 534K R, 774K D
Total R got 5.2M votes for Gov but 4.6M for Sen in these 3 states
So Trump bleeds 11% of GOP vote = 6% of final election result
Ohio: 2.5M R, 1.5M D vs 2.1M R, 1.9M D
Georgia: 2.1M R, 1.8M D vs 1.9M R, 1.9M D
Connecticut: 546K R, 709K D vs 534K R, 774K D
Total R got 5.2M votes for Gov but 4.6M for Sen in these 3 states
So Trump bleeds 11% of GOP vote = 6% of final election result
WOW? What did we just find?
In all 3 states, a blue state, a red state and the tightest race purple state of 2022 midterms, identical result
In all 3 states, CT, GA, OH, the GOP Senate candidate who aligned with Trump received LESS VOTES ON SAME BALLOT in same state, as the Gov
In all 3 states, a blue state, a red state and the tightest race purple state of 2022 midterms, identical result
In all 3 states, CT, GA, OH, the GOP Senate candidate who aligned with Trump received LESS VOTES ON SAME BALLOT in same state, as the Gov
And it is a HUGE impact
SIX PERCENTAGE POINTS in the final election result
If any Republican aligns with Trump he (she) will UNDERPERFORM by 6 points vs non-Trumpist. That means Trump GIFTS US SIX POINTS
Yes, MAGA = Make Assholes Go Away
Trump damages the GOP
#LetTrumpBeTrump
SIX PERCENTAGE POINTS in the final election result
If any Republican aligns with Trump he (she) will UNDERPERFORM by 6 points vs non-Trumpist. That means Trump GIFTS US SIX POINTS
Yes, MAGA = Make Assholes Go Away
Trump damages the GOP
#LetTrumpBeTrump
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
