Rep.-elect Anthony D'Esposito (#NY04) is supporting Kevin McCarthy for speaker, a spokesperson tells FiveThirtyEight.
Rep.-elect Nick LaLota (#NY01) also supports McCarthy, his campaign tells me.
Rep.-elect Anna Paulina Luna on the speaker vote: "I will vote on January 3rd for whoever allows me to best represent my constituents… I do not like to publicly disclose my private conversations with my colleagues."
Source: Rep. Rudy Yakym (#IN02) is also supporting McCarthy for speaker.
Statement from Rep.-elect Mark Alford (#MO04): "Speaker McCarthy is our only path forward to ensure conservative policies are accomplished in the next Congress. We must secure our border, support our military, and stop the Biden-Harris agenda that has crippled our economy."
Rep.-elect Russell Fry (#SC07) also plans to support McCarthy for speaker, a spokesperson tells me.
Rep. Tom McClintock (#CA05) "is supporting McCarthy for speaker," says a spokesperson.
Rep.-elect Josh Brecheen (#OK02) "has not taken a decided position on speaker, but is praying and considering all information," a spokesperson tells me.
And here's Rep.-elect Laurel Lee (#FL15): "No one has worked harder to elect a Republican majority in Congress. Kevin McCarthy has my full support."

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More from @baseballot

Dec 9
New from me: Six Republicans have said they won't vote for Kevin McCarthy for speaker. 222 - 6 = less than 218. fivethirtyeight.com/features/house… Image
Five of these names have been widely reported, but national media seems to have missed that Rep.-elect Mike Collins (#GA10) promised not to vote for McCarthy at his campaign kickoff last year. gpb.org/news/2021/09/1…
The anti-McCarthy Republicans all have very conservative and very anti-establishment voting records. Using DW-NOMINATE, I identified 7 other Republicans who fit the same profile. fivethirtyeight.com/features/house… Image
Read 4 tweets
Dec 9
Interesting to see some people convinced this means Sinema IS running for reelection and some convinced it means she ISN’T.
FWIW, my first instinct was that this means she’s retiring. But I really have no idea.
Maybe she’s daring Democrats to just not run a candidate against her, lest they throw the election to the GOP? But I think there’s very little chance of that happening.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 9
This is an extremely misleading thread, conflating ballot due dates with dropbox availability.
Richer's previous tweet implies he is talking about ballot deadlines here. But in fact:

AZ's ballot deadline: Election Day
OR's: 7 days later
CA's: 7 days later
UT's: Varies, but at least 7 days later
WA's: 21 days later!

Meanwhile, FL's ballot deadline is the same as AZ's: Election Day.

The difference is FL closes dropboxes at the end of early voting. Whereas Arizonans can drop off their ballot at several locations on E-Day, Floridians have to go to the elections office.

Read 4 tweets
Dec 1
NEW FROM ME: I went district by district, and I agree with @databyler: Redistricting probably didn't cost Democrats the House. fivethirtyeight.com/features/redis…
There were 11 districts that Republicans flipped thanks to redistricting alone (including #FL04, #TN05, etc.), vs. 5 that Democrats did. (Chart by @elena___mejia!) That's a net gain of +6 for the GOP. BUT… fivethirtyeight.com/features/redis… Image
…there were 9 districts Democrats *kept* only because of redistricting, vs. only 3 for Republicans. So it was a wash! fivethirtyeight.com/features/redis… Image
Read 8 tweets
Oct 14
TIL Democrats have adopted the controversial strategy of bullet voting in the Arizona state House this year: azcentral.com/story/news/pol…
Each AZ House district elects two representatives, but each person only gets one vote. So a party can greatly increase its odds of winning one seat if it nominates just one candidate (bc no vote-splitting)—but of course, you give up your shot at winning two.
That's exactly what Democrats have done in 4 of the 5 competitive Arizona House districts this year. That should easily get them to 28 seats in the 60-seat chamber. Then, if both their candidates win in the 5th seat—quite possible, as it was Biden+6—they can force a tied chamber.
Read 6 tweets
Sep 6
195 Republican candidates for Senate, House, governor, secretary of state, and attorney general fully deny the legitimacy of the 2020 election. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/republicans-tr…
An additional 61 have raised questions about the election without outright saying they think it was rigged. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/republicans-tr…
We've integrated this research with our forecast, too, so you can see how many election deniers are likely to actually win. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/republicans-tr…
Read 5 tweets

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