Important data points:
--NEW enrollment is still up 28% y/y nationally so far!
--Active renewals are up 17% overall
--IDAHO enrollment is up a whopping 70%, likely mostly due to @YourHealthIdaho launching their 2023 Open Enrollment 2 weeks early
Other states with dramatic y/y changes so far:
--New Jersey, Mississippi, Louisiana, South Carolina, Tennessee & Texas are all up 30% y/y
--New York, Pennsylvania, California, Maine, DC & Vermont are all down by double digits so far
📣 UPDATE: The grand total is actually at least 6.7 million when you add some stray SBM enrollment reports I have which are more recent than today's CMS press release. Actual total is likely well over 7 million as of today.
📣 UPDATE: Both NV & CO have issued updated enrollment data today as well, bringing the *confirmed* QHP + BHP total up to over 6.8 million.
The actual grand total through today is likely ~7.5 million nationally.
Interesting thread and story. I’ve actually been retained as an expert witness for two different website development lawsuits in the past, although neither of those related to discrimination issues.
In one of the cases the a jewelry store was trying to stiff the web designer they had hired. I was retained by the law firm representing the web designer. Fortunately, it was absurdly clear cut and the jewelry store lost.
The other case was FAR more complicated and incredibly stupid. I was retained by the law firm representing the Macomb County Sheriff’s Department in a countersuit against a web designer who had also been volunteering as an “honorary deputy” a la Herschel Walker.
If 100% of the population was vaccinated and there was even a single COVID death, you could accurately say that "100% of new COVID deaths were among those vaccinated."
FWIW, while COVID deaths are down dramatically nationally (averaging around ~320/day now) and the Red/Blue divide has narrowed substantially, they're still running over 70% higher in the reddest decile of the U.S. than the bluest decile.
A year ago COVID deaths were running as much as 6x higher in the reddest tenth of the U.S. than the bluest tenth. Last spring that ratio was down to 3x higher. Over the past month it's been around 1.7x higher.
📣 I know I've already posted these links several times, but I still keep seeing people asking "has anyone looked into whether the #GOPCovidDeathCult had a decisive impact on any midterm races, so once again, here you go:
If Katie Hobbs or Kris Mayes end up winning by less than ~4,100 votes, there's a very strong argument to be made that the #GOPCovidDeathCult was a decisive factor.
HOUSE RACES: Assuming all of the races *not* listed below don't see some dramatic turnaround, there's perhaps 8 House races left which could potentially end up falling within the #GOPCovidDeathCult range: AZ06, CA03, CA13, CA22, CA41, CA47, CO03, NY22. acasignups.net/22/11/12/eleph…
In case folks have forgotten, there's still a chance Democrats flipped the Arizona State Senate...
And Dems also have a shot at flipping the Arizona State House as well.
It's unlikely, but conceivable that Dems managed to squeak out a trifecta in Arizona!
Re. HD-002B: AZ's state house districts have 2 members apiece, so I think the parties occasionally only run 1 of their party in hopes of focusing on being sure to get at least one seat instead of risking not getting either seat. It seems to be working for Judy Schwiebert so far.
Out of curiosity, I decided to take a look at how some of the long shot Senate races which there had been some minor buzz about ended up going.
In Missouri, there was hope that a beer fortune heiress billionaire might be competitive. She wasn't.
In Indiana, there were a couple of polls showing Tom McDermott might be competitive. He wasn't.
(again, this isn't a reflection on the candidates themselves, just about the state they ran in).
In Louisiana, there was some controversy on the Democratic side about whether to back a "safer" moderate candidate (Mixon) or one more to the left on issues (Chambers). It didn't matter--Kennedy ended up getting nearly twice as many votes as both of them *combined*.
In short, there’s really only a dozen races where the GOP candidate *might* end up losing by less than the #GOPCovidDeathCult margin, which ranges from 0 - 600 votes in these 20 races (some of which have already been called since yesterday). 2/
I estimate that perhaps ~150K more Trump voters died of COVID than Biden voters between the 2020 & 2022 elections nationally. That’s a lot of people, but it’s tiny vs the ~112M who voted in the midterms, and most of these deaths happened in solid red/blue districts anyway. 3/