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Karen Cutter Profile picture
@KarenCutter4
Dec 8, 2022 • 12 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
The NSW Health epi report for the week ending 3 December is now out.
A thread/
#Covid19Aus #Covid19NSW
You can find the full report here...
health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/cov…
Reported cases are up 13% this week, a bit of a slowing in the rate of growth.
I've also estimated case numbers had mandatory reporting of RATS continued (dashed line). Approx 53,000 cases compared with 37,000 actual.
NSW Health has included a graph of furloughed health care workers, which provided a good correlation to case numbers prior to scrapping mandatory RAT reporting.
Hard to read off this graph, but it indicates maybe 55,000 cases had RAT reporting continued, so similar
The number of PCR tests is only a little higher than last week, but positivity has again increased - now 20%.
New video out by Dr Chant this morning, saying she expects the peak "in the coming week or so".
All age bands increased by about the 13% mark. 30-39 year olds lower at 5% growth
I thought I had won the "hospital admissions are lower this week" battle as it wasnt their leading bullet point this week. But no, it was still there, just relegated to 5th spot this week.
Hospital admissions have not decreased. They have increased by 15%
For my new followers, this is what the previous tweet is all about.
The number of people in hospital increased by 7%, lower than the last three weeks.
35 deaths this week, noting that NSW Health now only reports deaths as they are registered.
Variant picture has changed a bit.
BQ.1.1 still at about 18% of cases.
BA.5 reducing and now only about 18% of cases.
BR.2 growing and about 32% of cases.
BA.2.75 now lower at about 10%.
And this is my last NSW thread for a few weeks as I'm off on holidays. I'll be back mid-January.
Wishing everyone a covid-free christmas and new year!
ends/

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More from @KarenCutter4

Karen Cutter Profile picture
Dec 17, 2024
The Australian actuaries Mortality Working Group has released excess mortality estimates for the first eight months of 2024.

actuaries.digital/2024/12/17/mor…
Excellent summary, noting the baseline is no longer “assuming no pandemic”. Image
Actual weekly deaths are mostly within the 95% confidence interval. However, most weeks in June, July and August were above the prediction and this is significant in aggregate for the eight-month period. Image
Read 9 tweets
Karen Cutter Profile picture
Jul 28, 2024
The Mortality Working Group has today published our Research Paper covering excess mortality in 2020-2023.
actuaries.asn.au/public-policy-…
It is a massive paper (100+ pages), so I'm not going to cover off all of it!
This thread gives a taster of what is included in the paper, and is aimed at those who may want to delve further into the nitty-gritty.
There are four main sections of our paper (plus an into in section 1).
Section 2 cover excess mortality for Australia. This formally documents the excess mortality blogs we published throughout 2023. For those who have been following me, the numbers will look familiar.
Read 14 tweets
Karen Cutter Profile picture
Jul 11, 2024
The Mortality Working Group of the Actuaries Institute has released their latest estimate of excess mortality for Q1 2024.
TLDR: excess mortality is 1%, noting this is measured against the new baseline.
actuaries.digital/2024/07/10/exc…
Our new baseline measures 2024 mortality against 2023 (after allowing for some mortality improvement), and includes and allowance for COVID-19 deaths.
Deaths from all causes have been within the 95% confidence interval in each of the first thirteen weeks of 2024, although they have been towards the top of that range for three of the last four weeks of March. Image
Read 6 tweets
Karen Cutter Profile picture
Apr 12, 2024
Some fact checking on this article.
TLDR: Australia has not reached a 'significant' COVID milestone
A short thread/
"Australia appears to have had at least a week where no COVID-associated deaths were recorded for the first time in more than two years."
This is simply not true. The statement is based on this Fed Health graph. Image
Yes, it does show a 7-day average of zero deaths for the most recent data points. But this ignores the fact that the graph is compiled using date of death, and it is almost impossible for someone to die, have their death registered, and included in the Fed data within a week! Image
Read 11 tweets
Karen Cutter Profile picture
Apr 5, 2024
The Mortality Working Group of the Actuaries Institute has released our estimate of excess mortality for the full year 2023.
TLDR: Excess mortality for 2023 is 5% (95% CI: 3%-7%) or +8,400 deaths.
A thread/
actuaries.digital/2024/04/05/exc…
Note that our expected number of deaths (baseline) is our expectation had the pandemic not happened.
The baseline allows for changes in the age and size composition of the population over time, plus allows for pre-pandemic mortality trend to continue.
We finished the year with deaths being much higher than expected for each of the four weeks in December (as they were in November). Image
Read 15 tweets
Karen Cutter Profile picture
Mar 27, 2024
Australian deaths counts: surveillance vs death certificates.
For some time now I have been quizzically looking at the death surveillance reporting, thinking the numbers looked too low.
A thread/
This is because of the relationship between hospitalisations and deaths.
Normally deaths track hospital admissions quite closely, but with a little bit of a lag. But for Dec23 and Jan24, this relationship changed - deaths are lower than expected based on hospitalisations. Image
A few theories were floating around about why (eg. JN.1 less severe), but it also didnt make sense to me from looking at the Vic death reporting, and knowing the Vic wave was a bit earlier than the rest of Aust. Things just werent stacking up nicely.
Read 8 tweets

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