Kim Jolliffe Profile picture
Dec 8 3 tweets 1 min read
THREAD 1/3

There is only one 'capability' that Myanmar military relies on more than its air force...

Its will and capacity to use extreme intimate violence against nearby civilians in response to being attacked.

#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar
2/3

Every successful resistance operation is followed by brutality against nearby villagers and bystanders

This creates a huge moral and psychological burden for resistance forces and raises the costs of their operations

Of course, it also further fuels resistance... but
3/3

The sit-tat is betting that fear and fatigue will ultimately trump the demand for justice (and revenge)

This is a central strategem defining their attempt to rule

Their control of cities and central state organs is all propped up on this foundation

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Kim Jolliffe

Kim Jolliffe Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Kim_Jolliffe

Dec 6
Charles Petrie offers an excellent critique of the UN system in Myanmar

But he and others need to put more faith in vast segments of the population trying to end military rule and establish a federal democratic system

#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar

bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinio…
Like Steinberg and many others, Petrie surmises that the "democratic opposition [lacks] sufficient traction on the ground to bring the disparate pieces [of the country] together."

What kind of standards need to be set for this revolutionary movement to be taken seriously?
Until the federal democracy movement is steamrolling to immediate success, it just seems like so many commentators won't even take it seriously.

The alternative to junta rule is apparently just a jumbled chaotic mess without any agency or purpose. So sad.
Read 10 tweets
Oct 22
THREAD: ERO or EAO?

Why are they now "ethnic resistance organisations" not "ethnic armed organisations" and what does ERO mean?

Here I will share some background context and my thoughts.

#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar
In summary:

The specific accronym "ERO" was introduced by the National Unity Consultative Council in 2021, but is essentially what they'e always been called in Burmese.

EAO was a neutral term agreed in 2013 for the NCA text but it is less accurate in my opinion.

ERO is better
I personally define EROs as:

Well-established ethnic-based organisations that actively oppose rule from Naypyitaw militarily, politically & socially.

This excludes state-backed ethnic militia (BGFs and PMFs) and ethnically based 'defence forces' (more below)
Read 24 tweets
May 21
THREAD

@TheEconomist seems to claim we are 'post-truth' in Myanmar becayse local and social media are overhyping successes of resistance

This seems like a straw man and is deeply misleading about the situation on the ground

#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar

economist.com/asia/2022/05/1…
Firstly, local media and Myanmar Twitter/Facebook are constantly reporting on:

- Funerals of resistance fighters
- Desperate lack of weapons
- Lack of effective leadership
- Capture, torture, burnings of fighters & civilians believed to support resistance

What is being ignored?
There are indeed reports of the very real and historic losses that the Myanmar military faces on all fronts.

The following are happening every week

- Attacks on mil bases
- Losses of whole platoons
- SAC retreats from roads
- Defections
- Admin abandoning entire areas
Read 10 tweets
Mar 7
Many of these flying death machines have been terrorising civilians in #Myanmar for more than a decade.

The export version of Mi-24 (Mi-35) regularly fires on villages and fleeing people, while Su-30 variants bomb entire communities almost every day.

#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar
Myanmar's public defence forces lack capability to take down or even constrain these aircraft

Germany and Netherlands alone have sent at least 700 MANPADS to Ukraine in past week

If Myanmar's elected government had just 10 MANPADs, it would be a game changer
Feb last year, Myanmar's UN rep called for "strongest possible action from the international community to immediately end the military coup, to stop oppressing the innocent people, to return the state power to the people and to restore the democracy.” reuters.com/article/us-mya…
Read 13 tweets
Feb 1
THREAD

UN Special Envoy calls for non-military-led dialogue with all parties to agree a power sharing agreement as first step towards long-term military transformation.

Reasonable common sense suggestions but lack attention to practical realities...

#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
This is exactly what the UN has been calling for since the 1990s (at least) and what has been consistently blocked & avoided by the military.

This is not an accident. The military could not be more explicit. It knows what is best for Myanmar and its power cannot be questioned.
The closest Myanmar has come to power sharing is the '08 constitution.

The SLORC/SPDC held National Convention but dominated proceedings like a petulant monarchy, offended everyone, took no one elses suggestions and - of course - did not let the UN anywhere near the process.
Read 24 tweets
Feb 1
"As the junta attempts to forcibly bring the country under its control, it has inadvertently united many of Myanmar's diverse groups against it."

#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar #Feb1Coup

edition.cnn.com/2022/01/31/asi…
KNDF: "We will take back step by step, slow and slowly," he said. "We will continue, day by day. We are getting stronger. We are winning day by day."

@YeMyoHein5 : "In the past, their strategy and objective was how to control the country. Now they are focused on how survive."
@khinsandarwin: "I have never seen this kind if unity in our history... We believe that we will win this time. We never think we will lose ... Whether we die or whether you die, this is our slogan,"
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(