THREAD

More visible political leadership in Shan State is needed.

The Brotherhood Alliance, KIO and PDFs are clearly all working to the same broad goal of multi-ethnic revolution that defeats the regime, so a new system can be built from bottom-up

#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar Similar goals were outlined long before the coup by the KIO and PSLF/TNLA and more loosely by the MTSFJ/MNDAA

TNLA, KIO and MTSFJ/MNDAA also contributed to visions for a federal system in both UNFC and FPNCC position papers around 2014-2017

THREAD – As junta defeats to united resistance forces continue to snowball, the regime has minimal capacity to respond with ground offensives.

MAH has demonstrated huge deficit in strategic capacity since 2021, which is now more visible than ever.

#WhatsHappeninginMyanmar Offensives on Loikaw and Myitkyina seem imminent.

Much of northern Shan is being consolidated under NB control.

Unprecedented defections every day.

The India, China and BGD borders are falling.

We are yet to see what KNU/KNLA will do next to further isolate the junta.

Charles Petrie offers an excellent critique of the UN system in Myanmar

But he and others need to put more faith in vast segments of the population trying to end military rule and establish a federal democratic system

#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar

bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinio… Like Steinberg and many others, Petrie surmises that the "democratic opposition [lacks] sufficient traction on the ground to bring the disparate pieces [of the country] together."

What kind of standards need to be set for this revolutionary movement to be taken seriously?

THREAD: ERO or EAO?

Why are they now "ethnic resistance organisations" not "ethnic armed organisations" and what does ERO mean?

Here I will share some background context and my thoughts.

#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar In summary:

The specific accronym "ERO" was introduced by the National Unity Consultative Council in 2021, but is essentially what they'e always been called in Burmese.

EAO was a neutral term agreed in 2013 for the NCA text but it is less accurate in my opinion.

ERO is better

THREAD

@TheEconomist seems to claim we are 'post-truth' in Myanmar becayse local and social media are overhyping successes of resistance

This seems like a straw man and is deeply misleading about the situation on the ground

#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar

economist.com/asia/2022/05/1… Firstly, local media and Myanmar Twitter/Facebook are constantly reporting on:

- Funerals of resistance fighters
- Desperate lack of weapons
- Lack of effective leadership
- Capture, torture, burnings of fighters & civilians believed to support resistance

What is being ignored?

Many of these flying death machines have been terrorising civilians in #Myanmar for more than a decade.

The export version of Mi-24 (Mi-35) regularly fires on villages and fleeing people, while Su-30 variants bomb entire communities almost every day.

#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1500231292226523147

Myanmar's public defence forces lack capability to take down or even constrain these aircraft

Germany and Netherlands alone have sent at least 700 MANPADS to Ukraine in past week

If Myanmar's elected government had just 10 MANPADs, it would be a game changer

THREAD

UN Special Envoy calls for non-military-led dialogue with all parties to agree a power sharing agreement as first step towards long-term military transformation.

Reasonable common sense suggestions but lack attention to practical realities...

#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar

https://twitter.com/MayWongCNA/status/1488184246933983232

This is exactly what the UN has been calling for since the 1990s (at least) and what has been consistently blocked & avoided by the military.

This is not an accident. The military could not be more explicit. It knows what is best for Myanmar and its power cannot be questioned.

"As the junta attempts to forcibly bring the country under its control, it has inadvertently united many of Myanmar's diverse groups against it."

#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar #Feb1Coup

edition.cnn.com/2022/01/31/asi… KNDF: "We will take back step by step, slow and slowly," he said. "We will continue, day by day. We are getting stronger. We are winning day by day."

@YeMyoHein5 : "In the past, their strategy and objective was how to control the country. Now they are focused on how survive."

THREAD on #Myanmar army sending 2 large convoys (80+ trucks each with armoured vehicle escort) to Chin State.

- HUGE human rights / humnitarian concern

- Potential int' security concern for #India

- Unlikely to be strategic victory for MM military

#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar This is a relatively small unit of troops. Report say max. 120 trucks. If 25 men per truck, that is 3,000 troops.

I'd expect only a handful of support personnel (comms, medics, intelligence) for every 100 and they will be greatly isolated, hens the long, high-profile journey

The best book I have read on any aspect of local governance in #Myanmar.

Deep ethnography by local and int researchers on how actually justice works, mostly outside of the official courts where local leaders, EAOs and others fil void.

https://twitter.com/diisdk/status/1447528245210058752

It is a must read for understanding how governance is patchworked & why village/ward level is so important.

Written pre-coup but is deeply relevant post-coup as the governance and security environment becomes more fragmented and "mixed" in many areas.

#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar

Critical story on a US gun enthusiast using faux CIA credentials to train #Myanmar activists in highly problematic methods, including home-made indiscriminate weapons.

Some of my thoughts below 👇

#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar #Sep9Coup

newnaratif.com/dr-sasa-visits… Activists and political leaders underwent an extremely difficult decision-making process in March and April, deciding whether to take up arms.

They received no protection from anyone, and the zero sum nature of the SAC's agenda meant it was 'fight, be arrested/killed, or flee'

KNU Chairperson of Dooplaya District (southern Karen State) has requested NUG withdraw its declaration of war.

He is "terrified" of exepcted impacts on civilians and calls for political talks.

#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar #Sep8Coup

kicnews.org/2021/09/nug-%E… Worth noting that ppl in Dooplaya probably suffered more than any other Karen district after DKBA formed in 1995 and the constant fighting, forced labour, land confiscation and other abuses that followed.

THREAD

As #Myanmar Army burns villages in Sagaing...

Let's discuss the 'four cuts' strategy and community resilience to it

4 cuts is NOT about cutting resources to civilians. No.

Civilians ARE the resource that is being cut.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
myanmar-now.org/mm/news/7124 I have seen many posts lately framing food or water blockaids to civilians as 4 cuts (Phyet-Lay-Phyet)

It is all connected, but '4 cuts' is something much more evil.

'4 cuts' aims to cut off civilian support to armed groups, by displacing, killing and terrorising the civilians

THREAD

#Myanmar is NOT becoming 'like Syria' and is not 'descending into chaos'

No doubt, Myanmar is facing a catastrophic emergency of immense proportions and requires urgent support.

But...

#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar #May4coup #MyanmarCoup

https://twitter.com/cvdom2021/status/1389469511779164169

Myanmar is NOT taking in thousands of 'foreign fighters' from Afghanistan or other protracted int'l war zones.

Myanmar is NOT seeing millions of dollars of funding handed to all sides of the conflict by regional and global powers, nor international Islamist networks

As @CrphMyanmar announces National Unity Government of #Myanmar

This 'external analysis' commissioned by the Karen National Union provides useful background and context

#WhatsHapppeningInMyanmar #Apr16Coup #HearTheVoiceOfMyanmar It emphasises the important alliance between (mostly Bamar) pro-democratic forces from the heartland alongside ethnic pro-federal movements

It analyses and supports Part 1 of the Federal Democratic Charter, also known as "The Declaration of Federal Democracy.

THREAD - Junta takes control of Village Tract and Ward Administration

Local admins are arguably the most important units of gov for most #Myanmar people

They deal with >90% of justice cases and are the main conduit for almost all interaction with gov

#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar This is especially the case in rural areas, where taxation, land registration, welfare payments and any number of other functions run through the Village Tract Administrator.

In the past week, the #MyanmarMilitary has gone back 10 years, reversing decentralisation reforms

THREAD - HATE THE SYSTEM NOT THE 'THUGS'

I interviewed one of the regime's so-called "thugs" in 2011.

He was a Kachin teenager who had gotten into a drunken fight in Myitkyina and was then sentenced to prison.

#Myanmar #Myanmarcoup #myanmarmilitarycoup #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar In 2011, while the Myanmar Army was struggling to fight combined forces of KNU, DKBA and KNU/KNLA-PC...

...the military government began transporting prisoners from across the country to the southeast so they could be forced to porter military equipment. hrw.org/report/2011/07…

THREAD

The ends the #Myanmar regime is going to to incite fear and chaos are unprecedented & shocking.

Thugs are being dropped in neighbourhoods throughout Yangon to set fires, start fights and cause disturbance.

#Myanmarcoup #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar #MyanmarPoliceBrutality Police are being given powers in public writing to arrest anyone and act without permission of local administrators.

Those administrators (with bands of local people banging pots and pans) are having to take justice in their own hands and apprehend thugs to protect citizens.

THREAD ON #MYANMAR PRISON RELEASES

Military government announces release of 23, 369 prisoners.

This could pose threats to protestors and to public safety.

Yet another return to the old junta playbook.

#Myanmarcoup #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar #MyanmarPoliceBrutality

https://twitter.com/thuttag/status/1360047995153092608

They could be making space for protestors

Myanmar's 42 prisons, 5 detentions centres and 48 labour camps are vastly overcrowded. In June 2019, there were 85,000 prisoners despite official capacity of just 72,000.

Lack of detention centres means prisons often used before trial.

THREAD: Recent conflict between the #Myanmar military and the Restoration Council of #Shan State seems to represent a notable escalation and big blow to the ceasefire process. 1/9 After RCSS collectors allegedly seized equipment from the #Myanmar military, it retaliated with two symbolic bouts of shelling near the RCSS HQ area. The RCSS has viewed this as a direct message implying ‘we can attack your HQ’. 2/9