@kamilkazani has a really interesting thread on the potenial breakup of the Russian Empire. You can find his thread here along with my supporting fires in the comments.
The thread however begs the questions, just how fast can empires unravel? Generally speaking, within a single lifetime. Most of us probably perceive the fall of empires as something that takes time as rot set in. History certainly has plenty of examples: Achaemenid Empire, Rome,
the Ottomans but despite being famous I think I can make a case that they are outliers. First, every empire everywhere wants to be a China. As one of the world's oldest civilizations China endures. Rulers, dynasties and forms of government come and go. She gets invaded but she
endures. Rome and Assyria almost got there but migration, civil war and disease dealt them mortal blows. No one else has made the trip through time intact. Most empires fall virtually overnight. When Winston Churchill was a young man and fighting in the Boer War, Britannia ruled
the world from a position even more dominant than the US enjoys now. By the end of his life the UK was destitute her empire gone and her protection from a rival empire (USSR/Russia) only secured because of yet another empire (USA). There are so many exmples like this: Khwarazm
Empire, French and Dutch pacific empires, Japan, Alexander's empire, Napoleon's French Empire, The Mongol Empire, the Frankish Empire of Charlemagne. Missteps and hubris made from a position of strength made these empires brittle while avarice and greed kept them from cementing.
Then when an outside factor put them under stress they failed. Look at the USSR, she was a victor of WWII, had the largest army, the greatest landmass, unlimited natural resources but all of her energies were aimed in the wrong direction. Prestige and power took place over
development and internal cohesion by means other than repression. As a result, when the coup plotters who had marched to Berlin and crowned themselves the masters of Europe a mere 46 years earlier failed the empire dissolved overnight. What emerged was an imperial rump state.
Russia had shed most of her colonies in Eastern Europe and many in Asia but she managed to hold on to the bulk of the lands stolen from native peoples by the czars. The Soviet Union was dead but the Third Russian Empire emerged. That brings us to today. Putin's focus on military
and energy hard powers gave him the illusion of strength. He thought he could reclaim lands the czars had won but the Politburo had lost. Instead, he is destroying a generation of Russian manhood, wrecking his economy and isolating Russia on the world stage and as Kamil's essay
shows he is spreading the seeds of future dissolution. While the breakup of a nuclear power is fraught with peril, I think ultimately it will be a general good if this happens. We may well see the end of the last of the colonial empires if we stay the course. Ukraine deserves our
support, not to break up the Russian blob, but because she does not want to be assimilated like a Borg victim. Any fall out from Russia's hubris is on Russia's head not Ukraine's and not ours. This is why I tag @JohnBoozman, @SenTomCotton, and @RepFrenchHill everyday to send more
send better and send now. sadly, when empires die, huge numbers of people die with them. Russia is trying to effect a #GenocideOfUkrainians to hold off her fall. Winter is here and millions of Ukrainians are suffering for Putin's pride. Thats where we come in. Our donations to
groups like @u24, @MriyaAid, @LibertyUkraineF, @georgian_legion, @belwarriors, @UkraineAidOps and @3xR_team won't stop the missiles, but they do limit the damage and drive up the costs for Russia. Our time and dollars/euros donated to Ukraine as just another weapon to fight
genocide. Russia hates us for it. We were supposed to be easily distracted self indulgent sheep and instead we are a source of replenishment and strength for Ukraine. #NAFO #FELLAS in particular are hated. Our fight with the Kleptogradians has had a major impact on public opinion
and public support for the war. Our fight with Russia though is evolving. Russia is now weaponizing article 5 claims as a way to report fellas for violating Twitters TOS. Like a prop plane in the jet age the article 5 utility is waning as the fight evolves. Russia can't stop
NAFO any more than they can stop Ukraine but they will try so when you bonk, bonk smart. Stay inside the TOS and remember ridicule works wonders they have no answer for it. Do report them for violations of TOS, just don't call for brigading. We are smarter than they are. Speaking
of smarter. Do you listen to @MriyaReport? You can find some very smart people there. Until Ukraine Wins On Ukraine's Terms" Slava Ukraini! #RussiaisATerroistState #RussiaIsLosing @mfa_russia <--- still losing and you will eventually be stateless persons running from Interpol.

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More from @JBelcourt73

Dec 9
Bakhmut is hell. I stand by my prediction that this is where the Russian Army shatters, but it wont be without cost. I have seen a couple of images and videos this morning of Ukrainian medical and casualty evacuation including this one
So let's talk about it. This war is going to rewrite casualty evacuation procedures and how we care for the wounded at the tactical level. This is a battle dominated by drone directed artillery strikes and a very dense manpads environment. This means old methods where the combat
medics role was simply to get the wounded to the battalion aid station or LZ alive are not going to work, not up close anyway. Any place with high traffic is going to be a target and helicopters require a permissive environment. The Ukrainians might have stumbled on to part of
Read 19 tweets
Dec 7
I don't know how long this thread will go, or how many threads this topic will require its going to be lengthy. Before I begin, a bit of house keeping. @MontayBayBay for @curtmoss8
So lets dig into Ukrainian bravery. I am not going very far back into time. No talk about Viking heritage, facing the Mongols, Napoleon or Hitler. Those people are gone. They belong to the past. Our story starts in Nov 2013 when Yanukovich betrayed his nation and ignored the law
ordering him to turn towards Europe. Instead as a good lackey he attempted to prostrate Ukraine before Putin's feet. The people rallied against him and for their efforts had the security services turned on them. People were shot, kids were beaten but the protests only grew. One
Read 29 tweets
Dec 6
So short one today, at the Mechanic's getting the wife's car serviced. If you don't know @MontayBayBay is doing a challenge coin auction to benefit the @georgian_legion BUT there is a side event going on. If you can't afford to bid on a coin for yourself you can kick in to get
@CurtMoss8 one. He is a disabled American vet in a nursing home.just post up on the auction tweet with how much you are bidding or kicking in for Curt. Reminder:all payments but shipping should be paid directly to the Georgian Legion once the auction is complete.
Fundraising for The Wolves is why #NAFO was founded well that and us crazy cartoon dog #Fellas love to bonk Russians who pronounce nonsense. We can't do it alone. Neither can the Ukrainians. I mean they can do the fighting but they need the kit. The civillians need infrastructure
Read 5 tweets
Dec 5
Apparently Engel-2 Airbase was hit with at least 2 aircraft damaged. Its likely though not confirmed that the aircraft would be either Tu-160 or T-95 strategic bombers.
Once again some Kremlin staffer has to tell Czar Pooptin that the thing they told him Ukraine couldn't do, they did. So some quick thoughts on the fall out. @wartranslated is already reporting Kleptogradian mil-bloggers are raging.
Threats of nuclear war and doomcasting aside there are four likely moves from Russia. First, consider it a one off and do nothing as too not disrupt the pace of operations. Given how stupid the Russian military is this can't be discounted even if it flies in the face of every
Read 17 tweets
Dec 4
This video shows some amazing Russian efforts at modernize their war fighting. Apparently, they are trying to move from a WWI style infantry-based army to a Winter War style infantry based army. This will be a generational leap in capabilities.
Russia lost WWI and ended up losing Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltics, Poland and several other areas. Things seem to be headed the same direction in 22. Hence the modernization campaign to Winter War Standards where Russia eventually gained Karelia from Finland. Though to honest
I am not sure the average Russian will be able to tell the difference. I guess I could list out 5 or so differences but given that they can't count since they lost their fingers to frostbite it would be pointless. More seriously though, we see hundreds of men marching in the snow
Read 15 tweets
Dec 3
Well that is what's called waking up to the Earth Moved. 5 big things on the ticket today. First, conservstives are feeling rather justified. With Twittergate about to blow up the American political scene right before the GOP takes over the House things are going to be intense.
1. Twittergate 2. Russian Public Opinion 3. retreat from Zaporizhia 4. #Ukrainiancounteroffensive 5. inability to reconstitute offensive power. Thise 5 things are on Putin's palte today and only one of them looks tasty to him, remember that and don't help him with it.
Between Zuckbucks and Twittergate its now rather clear that the 2020 election was not conducted on a level playing field. Russia is going push every possible narrative around this they can. This is a golden opportunity for them to sow more division. I think we (Americans) all
Read 19 tweets

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