🧵I am being rightfully ratioed for this idiotic tweet, which I am deleting to save my mentions.
Let this be a lesson not to tweet while super drunk. However, while taking the L, I want to clarify my “thought process” here:
Let this be a lesson not to tweet while super drunk. However, while taking the L, I want to clarify my “thought process” here:
1. It goes without saying that this is a Russian win and a US loss. That’s the nature of hostage diplomacy: they get important agents, we just get our civilian citizens back. It sucks.
2. Secondly, Russia stuck to its guns and won. The US 2-for-1 offer of Bout for Griner and Whelan was totally ignored since June.
https://twitter.com/Ayei_Eloheichem/status/1552447618076516352?s=20&t=MconohVvVfLfoTCH5XKqeA
(3. That said, reports were that the opening gambit was a 1-for-1 Bout-for-Griner exchange).
https://twitter.com/Ayei_Eloheichem/status/1526819557981028352?s=20&t=MconohVvVfLfoTCH5XKqeA
4. Reports suggested Russia had upped the ante because they realized how desperate the US was and wanted other agents, too.
https://twitter.com/Ayei_Eloheichem/status/1554257387430694913?s=20&t=MconohVvVfLfoTCH5XKqeA
5. Now, what I expected was that Russia would manage to get multiple agents for Griner alone, including Krasikov. I assumed they’d just continue demanding more and the administration would cave.
6. So the fact that, after months of ignoring the US and quietly demanding more, the Russians ultimately agreed to a one-for-one swap for Bout, who they were always going to get, made me happier than what I expected, which was a 3-5 for 1.
7. Of course, it all depends on what happens with Whelan. Russia may end up getting Krasikov, Vinnik, and others for him.
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