Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Dec 11, 2022 19 tweets 9 min read Read on X
This Tuesday Dec 13th, @AbiyAhmedAli will be received in the @WhiteHouse during an African Leaders Summit convened by @POTUS @JoeBiden.

Ethiopia PM Abiy's return to center stage, is more important than understood & will doubtless be controversial for he wrong reasons. THREAD Image
This thread provides additional data and context to this report, recorded in Alamata - in Raya, Tigray November 4th, 2 days after the signing of the Pretoria Peace Agreement.
The video shows my first walk through the grave site which we found at Alamata after we arrived in Tigray on Nov 3rd, on the first journalism trip to Tigray since TPLF's resumption of warfare on 24th August.

This >> scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2211… was published Nov. 13th during #COP27. Image
Thanks to the fantastic satellite sleuthery of @Dinlas3 we have an update on the story - confirming witness accounts wrt the timing of the mass grave's construction. Image
In the video above at 2.54 minutes I approach the shed you see in the satellite image above - with excavation equipment and two large holes in front of the shed.

We can now see that there are clearly 2 mass graves there. The 2nd marked with stakes.
This still from the video shows the area where the southernmost hole is located. Watching the video it seems possible the excation of the hole took place in an area bodies had already been burried. Image
From this starting point in the video you can see a pan across the northernmost of the two large holes in the satellite imagery. At the time I had no idea that there wer two holes. There is also recently disturbed ground in the foreground & a newer hole.
What is mosty important about this image however is what it tells us about the timing of construction. On December 4th 2021 TPLF was in control of Alamata, and it remained in control of Alamata untill two weeks before I arrived there on November 4th 2022. Image
This confirms witness accounts that the mass grave, a source of terror in the city of of Alamata belongs to the TPLF, and is not evidence as TPLF may soon try to claim of #TigrayGenocide, a claim which remains at the core of many media accounts of this war and TPLF propaganda.
This is the summary of my initial findings from my 13th November report, which is based on these witnesses testimony.

The claim that the mass grave was established after Op. Alula - the triumphant retaking of Mekelle by TPLF is critically important. ImageImage
And Dinlas's satellite imagery research while not completely conclusive on this point is pretty clear. Theseimages show the site in March 21st 2021, before the rains - while Alamata was in control of the Govt. During the period that the #TigrayGenocide was supposedly occurring. ImageImage
Here we see January 11th 2022. Same spot. By then the two holes close to the shed are filled. And given the timing, filled during the TPLF's retreat which by December 4th had begun. ImageImageImage
TPLF announced a "withdrawal" of its forces to Tigray on Dec 21st ending a destructive "revenge" invasion of Amhara whch began on July 13th 2021, during which the great bulk of the lives were lost in this conflict: civilians, TPLF forces/child soldiers & ENDF & ASF.
The limited imagery we have from 2021 is constrained by the rains which came fairly early in 2021 around April and were strong through to September. But we can see from the Dec4th images that the site was already completely full at the time the two large holes were dug. ImageImage
And the video shows significant numbers of relatively fresh graves dug in the period since. Locals put the number burried there at at least 3000 - and this figure could be very conservative. Witnesses report seeing lots of Sinotrucks entering the site carrying bodies. Image
The satellite imagery now suggests that the graveyard wasn't big enough to take all the bodies, leading in December to a scramble by the TPLF to expand capacity including digging up areas in which people had already been burried.
As I am unlikely to complete my full account of my visit to Alamata in time for the Washington DC African Leaders summit - advance release of this new information seemed important. My thanks to @Dinlas3 whose work made this possible.
The above does not include all of the findings from the satellite imagery, investigation of which is continuing. The imagery here - and some not yet published - belongs to @Dinlas3 and anyone else wishing to use it should contact him.
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More from @althecat

Sep 30
As we enter a moment of reflection following the death of Nasrallah, the impetus of the peace effort to resolve this crisis has now moved to the Arab States and the Gulf Cooperation Council.

The second major player in this new phase of this conflict resolution issue is the United Nations, which is - thanks to this year old war against mostly civilians - now facing an unprecedented crisis.

A crisis in global confidence.

It is apparent to anyone or nation- who has eyes to see or ears to listen - clear that the U.N. System has completely failed. And as a result the UN System itself is now on trial.

In other words. The Post WWII Western Nation dominated « Rules Based Order » is now itself on trial in the global court of public opinion.

In Gaza, and Lebanon, and now in New York it has very clearly failed.
(/1 of several) VIDEO THREAD:

Why does the Israel lobby still exist? with Ilan Pappé via @YouTube

History - this @ Electronic Intifada interview with preeminent 20th and 21st Century Israeli Conflics Historian Ilan Pappé is 2 months old , but it remains super relevant as a starting point. Patience is required but it is well worth it.

It focuses on the role of the Israeli Lobbies, particularly in the UK and the U.S. and includes specific exemplar discussions of on
- Senator Fullbright vs the U.S. Israel Lobby I.e. AIPAC
- Jeremy Corbyn vs The UK Israel Lobby (2017 to 2019)
(/2) The Looming Catastrophe in the Middle East (w/ Gideon Levy) | Chris Hedges Interview.

Gideon Levy’s discussion here is contemporaneous and also based on a new book. His prognosis of the corrupt state of Israeli politics and the international response is not at all positive.

via @YouTube
Read 21 tweets
Sep 20
Interesting clear eyed commentary as always from Mearshiemer.

Following the Israeli’s latest escalation the Israelis are now in a stalemate situation.

Prof. John Mearsheimer : Is Israel on the Brink? via @YouTubeyoutube.com/live/juNa3vgXI…
I.E. they have now run out of options. And Netanyahu is now in a bind.

If Netanyahu / Israel has more tricks up its sleeve to address this remains to be seen.

But the overall construction here following Nasrallah’s remarks is pretty clear and it looks like Israel is not in a position to invade Lebanon. If they were they would have done so yesterday or the day before.
This is helpful to the Biden Administration I’d argue.

Hezbollah’s unambiguous response saying that they will only stop attacks on the northern front if there is a ceasefire in Gaza is Chrystal clear.

And this is what the American Administration also wants.
Read 6 tweets
Sep 19
So Iran now says there will be a joint response to the Lebanon situation from the « Axis of Resistance »

It sounds however like this will not be overly escalatory in order to avoid an all out war.

🔴 Al Jazeera English | Live via @YouTubeyoutube.com/live/gCNeDWCI0…
So perhaps we will see something more demonstrative. Firing missiles into the sea or the desert would be unfortunate for the fishes and camels. But it may allow the Axis to make their point without leading to a regional war that could so easily spiral completely out of control. /2
Alternatively, far better, and perhaps more effective as a prelude would be a united Arabic diplomatic response with a new peace proposal.

The U.S. is clocked out for the election and such a move could potentially lower the temperature and assist with the ultimate goal. /3
Read 6 tweets
Sep 17
The 538 poll of polls is a complete disaster for the GOP at this point.

Biden’s desire for U.S. Supreme Court reform under Kamala is now a theoretical possibility. Previously it was a pipe dream.



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1/2

National Harris vs Trump Polls (reverse chronological order)

note: He’s only ahead in one poll since September 11th (so FOX’s desperate flag hugging effort had zero impact) and in that one poll only by 2 points whereas Harris has several 4-5 point margins.

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2/2

And if you go back to late August he’s only ahead in four polls. In three of them by 1 point and the other by just 2. All of them statistical ties.

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Read 6 tweets
Sep 11
Went looking at @FoxNews to see how they were coping with the shocking fail by Trump last night.

The show today has the vibes of a flag hugging wake.

This is far from surprising as the 9/11 commemorations are the backdrop of the day. But what’s surprising is how little Fox has.

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But if @JDVance thinks dissing @taylorswift13 is going to help the GOP he’s being a bit daft.

I look forward to this becoming a meme given that « childless cat ladies » is probably what he is best known for. npr.org/2024/07/29/nx-…
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@JDVance @taylorswift13 Sort of akin to punching yourself figuratively in the face. But it should get him attention - which is probably his calculus.
Read 6 tweets
Aug 25
🔴 Al Jazeera English | Live via @YouTube

Frankly the only way I can think of to interpret this is that Israel is seeking to draw the U.S. Armada which is currently approaching Israel to establish a defensive shield over Israel into a wider war.

Yesterday was the Jewish Shabbat. Today is the Christian Sabbath. This is Netanyahu’s last stand, yet another attempt to start a regional war with the objective of dragging the U.S. into the war with Iran that he has been trying to engineer for the last few months.

He knows that a Kamala Harris Presidency will possibly be less cautious. He is concerned that a progressive administration in the White House will not tolerate his approach to Israeli security, the war he is currently waging and the long-term extremist right wing objective of driving all Palestinians out of Israel.

But to secure the space for this outcome he Israel needs a regional war with U.S. involvement to degrade Hezbollah and Iranian military capacity.

In the short term here and now he needs to blow up the talks in Cairo which are now on the threshold it seems of delivering a ceasefire agreement.

All parties to this conflict and the international community more broadly need to continue to calibrate their responses to not give him what he wants.

This morning’s events should be allowed to die down, and absent a major escalation by Hezbollah and Iran they should do so readily.

The world know knows who is responsible for continuing this horror show. The U.S. and Israel.

This morning when the U.S. wakes up it should be helped to see once again the stark reality here. That Israel under Netanyahu has become a rogue state, threatening the peace of the entire Middle East, and threatening to drag U.S. airmen and soldiers into a war that no-one sane in either the U.S., Europe, or indeed anyone on the planet wants.

Maintaining self control at this moment is therefore vital. And Netanyahu will then lose. He will not get his regional war and Israel will have to agree to a ceasefire.youtube.com/live/gCNeDWCI0…
Meanwhile…

/2 Israeli bombardments in Gaza kill several as polio vaccination continues... … via @YouTube
/3 & perhaps most significantly a mass mobilisation for a ceasefire has now become a General Strike.



« A major nationwide strike is now underway across Israel.

The largest trade union says it wants to pressure the government of Benjamin Netanyahu into signing a Gaza ceasefire and captive release deal with Hamas.
The action was called after the bodies of six Israeli captives were recovered from a tunnel in southern Gaza on Saturday.

Hamas has blamed Israeli air strikes for the deaths of those six captives whose bodies were recovered on Saturday.
Israel says they were found with bullet wounds.

Dozens of people attended a vigil for one of the six, Israeli-American Hersh Goldberg-Polin.

Israeli finance minister Bezalel Smotrich is trying to halt the general strike.
He's asked the attorney general to impose a ban - saying the industrial action will have significant economic consequences.

Opposition leader Yair Lapid has called for a complete government shutdown.

Udi Goren, a member of the Hostages and Missing Families Forum, spoke to Al Jazeera from the Israeli Knesset in West Jerusalem, where the group has been speaking to parliament members amid an ongoing general strike calling on Netanyahu to reach a deal with Hamas for the release of the remaining captives. »
Read 4 tweets

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