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Dec 9

Instead of trying to encircle Bakhmut and slowly taking it, the Russian High command seems to have decided to launch a frontal attack on the city itself, proving my suspicion that Putin wants the city as fast as possible even when this means highest rate of own casualties. 1/8

It is the Russian version of shock and awe where everything is thrown into the meat grinder in order to overwhelm the enemy because there is no better option. This tactic is as reckless as it is desperate. You chose this only when you have a very limited time window. 2/8

I believe that the haste comes from two reasons.

1.) The Russian reserves are limited. You cannot sustain such a high intensity operation for a long time.

2.) Winter hasn't fully arrived yet. The Russian army is not ready for it. A snow storm would scythe them entirely. 3/5

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Dec 8

There are some western leaders such as Macron who make no sense when talking about “security guarantees for Russia”. Putin has made clear in numerous instances that he does not recognize Ukraine as a state. So, it has zero to do with security.

Even when we wouldn’t know that it is non sense because any security architecture is based on a status quo whatever that means and which is based on the current state of events. Russia under Putin is not interested in that but in the compete opposite.

We are dealing with a deeply revanchist Russia under Putin which wants to destroy the status quo, including any security architecture in order to implement its imperial structure from the 19th and 20th Century. Any offer for peace or ceasefire without a Russian withdrawal…

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Dec 8

Russia is aching for a ceasefire but the its propaganda logic dictates that this option can only be taken when Russia achieved a small or even Pyrrhic victory without the impression of being beaten over and over again as it is the case right now, especially after Kherson.

Bakhmut is supposed to be a future propaganda facade with some tactical background but no strategic value. In the contrary, even when we project that Russians might achieve that objective it would be extremely hard to hold it with no additional reserves.

Neither Russia’s industry nor the botched mobilization are in a shape for sustaining that, at least not for the moment. But there is the thinking in Russia that this might be changed in future when there is tactical pause (ceasefire). Imho I find that conclusion questionable.

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Dec 2

This is exactly what I was suspecting to happen. Putin and his followers know that their defeat cannot be averted so they try to project, claiming that what is going to happen to them is going to happen to every single Russian. 1/5

That is of course non sense except for one thing.

Many are wondering why Russians don’t oppose their government, inside or outside Russia. There are a plethora of different reasons in the whole Russian population. Some fear how they are perceived by family and friends. 2/5

Some hope that this thing will soon blow over. Some are genuinely hoping that Russia will win. Many think that they don’t make a difference. Others are just too lazy. Etc. I can go on forever.

Bottom line, you will not find the *one* thing, except for this. 3/5

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Nov 27

I remember how many have been predicting the “rise of dictatorships” and when I think of the years 2016 and 2017 this might have been an explainable impression but when I look at it now it is those dictatorships having increasingly a problem to legitimize their presence.

Everyone saying that certain corners in the world can only be ruled by an iron fist are wrong. Many states such as Germany, Japan, Southkorea, etc. were militaristic dictatorships. Look at them today. They moved on.

Furthermore, I’m fully convinced that even when any state can have an economic growth, dictatorship or not, the point will be reached where growth ends without free speech and the rule of law,because corruption will always be inefficient and even self destructive to the country.

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Nov 23

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1595310263334576129

I'm absolutely convinced that former PM Johnson is saying the truth. The government of my country (and Paris) were certainly thinking that Russia will take Kyiv in 3 days. "Consultants" such a former general and failure Erich Vad filled their ears with that garbage. #Ukraine 1/4

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1595310263334576129

We have ear witness reports such as from the Ukrainian ambassador that German Finance Minister Lindner told him personally that "why should we help if it is over in a matter of hours?". The shameful German and French notion was one of the reasons why Putin felt emboldened. 2/4

Luckily the US, UK, Poland, the Baltics, the Czech Republic, Slovakia didn't follow that wrong way. But we have also to say that both, Berlin and Paris, substantially changed their course in the direct direction, though there is still room of improvement. 3/4

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