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Chhirag Kedia Profile picture
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Dec 13 • 16 tweets • 10 min read
Neil, the IPOBase strategy you shared in your newsletter - which was shared by your friend - was popularized in India by my research which was published in March 2021. It is actually O'Neil's work, but had never been popularized here because no one ever did a #deepdive on it. (1)
But #IPOBase in not only about buying the high of the listing week. It is infact an extremely poor interpretation of the work.

A strategy is not only limited to a setup, what makes it effective is when you manage it according to its nature & potential. (2)
The entire fintwit community took the setup from my research - which was done on all IPOs listed since 2017 and parts of it was published on twitter - but didn't paid attention to the trade management rules which resulted into underperformance for them. (3)
Sharing the original work with you as it might help in getting the entire set of rules for proper trade management in it. Hope you'll like it.

#PrimaryWork on #IPOBases (4)
Taking this opportunity to compile all my works on #IPOBases at one place - in a master thread.

#ModelStock #Shankara #Casestudy (5)

The #3D approach to identify a high quality setup - (6/n)

#Casestudy of #PSPProjects (7)

#LiveTrade of #LAXMICHEM (8)

#LiveTrade of #JUBLINGREA (9)

#LiveTrade of #SONACOMS

Didn't bothered much to compile it in as organised way as I did for #LAXMI & #JUBLINGREA but searching the hashtag will share the entire ups & downs of the holding period. (10)

#LiveTrade of #CRAFTSMAN (11)

#LiveTrade of #AWL

Lost interest in posting trades on twitter after this one. (12)

Challenging the conventional rule of listing at premium in #IPOBases. (13)

Trading hated #IPOs (14)

Psychology behind #IPOBases and qualitative analysis of the setup. (15)

Some more notes about #IPOBases.

Am keeping this master thread open to compile my remaining works on it in future. (16)

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More from @swing_ka_sultan

Chhirag Kedia Profile picture
Dec 12
𝟮𝟮 𝗸𝗲𝘆𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘀𝘂𝗰𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗳𝘂𝗹 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 (𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘭𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 - 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘱𝘪𝘭𝘦𝘥 𝘣𝘺 𝘢 𝘴𝘵𝘶𝘥𝘦𝘯𝘵) -
1) Try to Simply your trading approach after a point of time. One more indicator / tool / strategy won’t make you a good trader. (2/n)
2) Become a 360-degree trader. Need to have strategies to cover all scenarios. (Learnt from @PradeepBonde) (3/n)
Read 24 tweets
Chhirag Kedia Profile picture
Dec 6
Some insights on #Volume -

t.me/MMT_Broadcast/…
Q&A on #MagnitudeTrades, #CANSLIM & #SellingIntoWeakness

t.me/MMT_Broadcast/…
Insights on #ATH, #52WH

t.me/MMT_Broadcast/…
Read 5 tweets
Chhirag Kedia Profile picture
Dec 1
As this is a question several people asked me, hence posting it as a thread.

I rarely follow any rule, I believe in my abilities to identify character. It makes me able to make decisions in confusing situations too.

#IPOBases are volatile in nature. What I saw before (1/n)
entering this stock was 3 days out of which on 18th Nov. gave a strong recovery and closed strongly. Next two days saw a volatility contraction in form of inside bars.

If a stock is not falling down, it is first sign of a probable recovery. Anything which is not going down (2/n)
shows its line of least resistance is not downwards, but have higher chance of it having upwards (which confirms through breakout).

Volatility is both - a trader's friend and the biggest foe. Foe when it is directionless, and friend when it expands in one direction and (3/n)
Read 5 tweets
Chhirag Kedia Profile picture
Nov 21
Srikanth, market doesn't work in that way. What we are seeing on the name of 52 week high etc is just an effect, an indicator of demand.

Question is what generates demand? Think on it - why you buy a stock? You buy it because you believe stock will go up. Hence behind your (1/n)
action is your belief, your conviction which is the cause behind creating demand. Now think, where this conviction comes from?

For you, it might comes from technical aspects but for institutions, who makes these charts, the reason to buy or hold a stock is only value. (2/n)
If the stock offers value, whether in terms of price comparative to current assets (like P/BV or P/E) or future value (Growth).

As a technical analyst, you are reading the actions of these institutional players and indirectly acting on the value only.

So trend is (3/n)
Read 9 tweets
Chhirag Kedia Profile picture
Nov 21
#SA_Notes for 21-11-2022

- Market is bear grip - both in long and short term.

- Volume still staying around 0.45, not suggesting any extreme. There is a high chance to see a continuation of the current situation for some more time.

- Bull swing is not yet around the (1/n)
corner. Don't be in hurry to label any green day a start of a bull swing. Whenever market will stretch in shorter term time frame, it will give a green day or a strong opening, only to be sold off later. Beware of bull traps.

Such actions further tighten the bear grip. (2/n)
- US had a gap up start on Friday only to be cool off later. It lacks FOMO and FOMO is the life blood of any uptrend. When a beaten down market first comes into bull run, it sustains the advances rather than giving it up.

- Preferable strategy to trade in this market is (3/n)
Read 4 tweets
Chhirag Kedia Profile picture
Nov 21
यदि हमारे शास्त्रों में कोई सबसे दिव्य ज्ञान दिया गया है तो वो है 'अहम् ब्रह्मास्मि'! तुम में स्वयं ब्रह्म होने की क्षमता है, किंतु ब्रह्म होने की अनिवार्य शर्त एक ही है - आस्था की समाप्ति।

मुझे नहीं मालूम नास्तिकता इतनी अप्रिय क्यों है, क्यों इतनी नकारात्मक मानी जाती है। (1/n)
जनतंत्र की भांति शायद यह इतना आधुनिक विचार है जिसके लिए मनुष्यता अभी तैयार नहीं है, उसे संभालने में सक्षम नहीं है। आस्तिकता आस्था से निकलती है, आस्था में प्रश्न की संभावना नहीं, केवल समर्पण की है। यहां केवल भक्त और भगवान का संबंध संभव है।

नास्तिकता प्रश्न का अधिकार देती (2/n)
है। यहां भक्त भी कोई नहीं है और भगवान भी कोई नहीं है। यहां संबंध बराबरी का है। यह तुम्हारे ब्रह्म बनने का प्रथम सोपान है।

किंतु यदि आस्तिक बनना ही है तो नरेंद्र की तरह प्रश्न करो, और जब रामकृष्ण परमहंस मिल जाएं तो स्वयं को समर्पित करके विवेकानंद बन जाओ। (3/3)
Read 4 tweets

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