Lets talk peace. Seems to be what Russia wants to talk about so lets do it. Of course anyone engaging in such a discussion needs to know a few things. First, Russia has never honored a single international agreement she signed. Most importantly the Budapest Memorandum. She signed
that in 1994 and promised to respect Ukraine's borders. Second, Russia does not feel bound by international law. For example, it is illegal under Interational law to annex territory or forcibly transfer children. More of those international agreements Russia signs but does not
honor. Third any pause in the fighting will provide time for Russia to train her mobiks, reconstitute units and dig in making any future Ukrainian counter-offensive much harder and bloodier and also limit Russian losses to the cold and wet by allowing the bulk of the invaders to
find shelter from winter. Fourth, Russia does not negotiate in good faith. Russia was a part to the Minsk Agreements negotiations but as soon as they were inked claimed she was not a party and that Ukraine had to deal with the separatist directly while also directing the
separatist to tank the implementation of the agreements. Fifth, per Russian law, there is nothing Russia can do to cede back the territory she invaded and illegally annexed. She literally has nothing to bring to the table and the best she could do is promise not to invade again.
See points 1:4 as too how much that promise would be worth. Got it? OK, now what's there to negotiate? Peace talks at this point are just a stalling tactic and a way to sow division in the West. Sure eventually there will be talks aimed at getting stolen Ukrainians back, how much
reparations Russia owes Ukraine, the turn over of Russian officials and war criminals to stand trial at the Hauge and the required benchmarks before there is any sanctions relief. But that is not today. Today is a day to kill or be killed in a war that Russia wanted. To keep the
killed (Russians) and be killed (Ukrainians) numbers as high/low as possible what Ukraine needs are not diplomats interested in peace at any cost but leaders who understand the real cost of an early peace. Thats why I tag @JohnBoozman, @SenTomCotton and @RepFrenchHill in my daily
threads. Send more, send better, send now! That is the recipe for a real peace. We can do our part too. Firstly, we can stomp all over the idiotic comments that Ukraine must surrender (early peace) to Russia and let Russia win. Bonking this BS is the way. Shaping public opinion
countering the trolls is why #FELLAS and #NAFO exists, well that and supporting the @georgian_legion as they help shape the future peace. They and units like the @belwarriors or 92nd Brigade being supported by @LibertyUkraineF are negotiating in the only language Russia
understands. We can also give to other worthwhile charities: @MriyaAid, @UkraineAidOps, @U24_gov_ua and @3xR_team round out my list of "you can trust these ones" There are more but this is my list. No offense to any of the others who have spoken on @MriyaReport intended.
Until Ukraine Wins On Ukraine's Terms: Slava Ukraini! @mfa_russia <--- still losing and I wouldn't trust you to dispose of used toilet paper let alone anything important like say honest negotiations.

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More from @JBelcourt73

Dec 14
Lets talk partisans, no not the political ones, the Ukrianian ones. From knife in the back teams to grandma's with cell phones partisans have been active in this war. Likely often teamed up with stay behinds and SOF teams they fill a few critical roles. First is the kinetic side
partisan warfare: assassinations, sabotage, small unit battles. This has been going on since the war began. We have all seen the reports of X or Y Russian official or collaborator getting blown up, or the reports of isolated Russian troops getting knifed on the darkened streets
of Kherson etc. Kinetic actions serve two primary functions. First is to aid the main war effort. A supply convoy that gets ambushed or hits an IED/minefield can't add to the fight at the front line. Occupation troops detailed off to fight partisans can't fight the Ukrainian Army
Read 23 tweets
Dec 12
There is one part of Ukraine that while frozen is extremely hot. Building up a clear picture of what's going around Bakhmut is not possible. Opsec, dis/mis-info, fog of war and the ever-changing realities of the moment to moment have mostly drawn a curtain over what we can the
city. However there are a couple of specks of light we can use to infer something. First, it looks like the Ukrainian defenders are undergoing a replacement cycle. It looks like the 93rd Brigade is being pulled out and replaced.
Thats pretty typical of meat grinders, units can only sustain high intensity operations for so long before they first lose their edge and eventually just lose. We know its high intensity from a couple of other sources. First is this
Read 12 tweets
Dec 11
One of the things we value in Arkansas is family. Having 2 of my 3 kids and all 3 of my grandbabies here was awesome but tiring. Luckily I have heat and power and the weather was merely wet not freezing.
How many Ukranian grandparents who live rural lives like me are suddenly refuges because they have a wood stove or a generator? The strike on Odesa means those with such grandparents are the lucky ones. They may have to leave the city but don't have to become refugees. There is
Only 1 answer to Russian evil: send more, send better and send now. That's the message elected leaders like @JohnBoozman, @SenTomCotton and @RepFrenchHill need to hear everyday. That message needs to be backed by action. Who are you donating to? There are several good charities
Read 5 tweets
Dec 10
I know Saturdays are normally my extra-long threads but not today. I am not shy about being a recovering addict. In the middle of my addiction I gave up my daughter for adoption to my ex's new husband. I did not think I would survive. I did and about a year ago we reconnected.
she is here now along with my 3 grandkids. So what's this got to do with Ukraine? The future is usually brighter than the present and if the work is put in the sun will shine again. I had to work hard to beat addiction, we have to work hard to help Ukraine beat Russia. I don't
tag @JohnBoozman, @SenTomCotton, and @RepFrenchHill day after day month after month for nothing. Send more, send better and send now is the best way I can summarize what Ukraine needs to liberate her people and lands and stop a genocide. Likewise the charities I push
Read 7 tweets
Dec 9
Bakhmut is hell. I stand by my prediction that this is where the Russian Army shatters, but it wont be without cost. I have seen a couple of images and videos this morning of Ukrainian medical and casualty evacuation including this one
So let's talk about it. This war is going to rewrite casualty evacuation procedures and how we care for the wounded at the tactical level. This is a battle dominated by drone directed artillery strikes and a very dense manpads environment. This means old methods where the combat
medics role was simply to get the wounded to the battalion aid station or LZ alive are not going to work, not up close anyway. Any place with high traffic is going to be a target and helicopters require a permissive environment. The Ukrainians might have stumbled on to part of
Read 19 tweets
Dec 8
@kamilkazani has a really interesting thread on the potenial breakup of the Russian Empire. You can find his thread here along with my supporting fires in the comments.
The thread however begs the questions, just how fast can empires unravel? Generally speaking, within a single lifetime. Most of us probably perceive the fall of empires as something that takes time as rot set in. History certainly has plenty of examples: Achaemenid Empire, Rome,
the Ottomans but despite being famous I think I can make a case that they are outliers. First, every empire everywhere wants to be a China. As one of the world's oldest civilizations China endures. Rulers, dynasties and forms of government come and go. She gets invaded but she
Read 19 tweets

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