Shelter inflation is the big cheese for Core #CPI; we should all know by now this data line needs to catch up to the reality of real-time shelter data. The bond market gets it, the Fed to old to slow, and all of you have no excuse π
Remember, shelter inflation CPI lags 12 months from now; we are all in a different spot with inflation data βπ½πͺπ½
#CPI
The Mad Max basket is cooling off; no surprise.
If you don't know who Mad Max is you missed out #Thunderdome π
Only the Hobbits eat two breakfast baskets still elevated. We need to get control of Egg prices π€¨
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#CPI
I am glad I bought my new car in October 2020 Basket is fading.
You can all see what is happening here; Core CPI is being held up by a lagging component, which is also roughly 42.4% of the index. π€¨
Remember, we will have nearly 1,000,000 rental units hitting the market next year on top of the real-time growth cool down in the data
The Fed can act old and slow, but you don't have to be. π
1870-1950... oh man, that was a party, but we haven't had much deflation post-1960. Growth rate can cool down of course, but straight out deflation, not so much
Shelter Rent Inflation, even after the housing bubble crash, we only had a few months of deflation in this index.
What data line has gotten better in the last 5 weeks that looks out 30-90 days?
Sales = backward looking
Pending sales = slighly backward looking
Purchase apps = forward-looking
When we have extreme volatility in the data, you must be careful in reading data correctly.
Forward-looking apps and weekly inventory channel data. π€
I'm not joking here, by the way; ask people that question; most Don't know the inventory data. π«‘ it's vital if you're talking about a 40% plus crash in 2 years π back to 2019 levels